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NUCLEAR NEWS ITEMS - LATE 2005, EARLY 2006

* Check the nukes edition of the online mag signature:
* <http://s7digital.com/signature>
* uranium exports to China
* Roxby water
* government gutting renewables
* nukes no solution to climate change
* uranium mining in Australia
* consumerism
* terrorism - nuclear waste and uranium
* SA company - nuclear waste
* Iran, China, WMD
* nuclear WMD proliferation
* nuclear power, safe as houses. not.
* James Lovelock and the end of the world
* USA - Australia ANZUS alliance
* Australia's role in US missile 'defence' program
* smart money takes leave of uranium
* dirty bombs labs in Australia
* health hazards of low-level radiation

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Check the nukes edition of the online mag Signature:
<http://s7digital.com/signature>

MARNI CORDELL speaks with Shadow Minister for Industry and Resources,
Martin Ferguson about his push to overturn the ALP's 'no new mines' position.
http://s7digital.com/signature/sig-stories.php?id=540

MIRIAM LYONS investigates one of the longest running PR campaigns in
history: the push to sell nuclear power as 'clean and green'.
http://s7digital.com/signature/sig-stories.php?id=535

And EVE VINCENT reports on the Federal Government's radical Radioactive
Waste Management Bill.
http://s7digital.com/signature/sig-stories.php?id=532

In our photo story the Kupa Piti Kungka Tjuta celebrate their success in
stopping a national radioactive waste dump from being built on their country.

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URANIUM EXPORTS TO CHINA

Collection of  articles on proposed uranium exports to China at: <www.geocities.com/jimgreen3/chinauran.html>

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ROXBY WATER

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Mine will ruin us: graziers
Jeremy Roberts
The Australian
26dec05

CENTRAL Australian pastoralists fear BHP Billiton's plan to supply its massive Olympic Dam uranium mine with water from the Great Artesian Basin will kill the grazing industry.

BHP, the world's biggest mining company, is investigating whether to pump 150 megalitres of water a day from the basin to supply its proposed doubling of the Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine at Roxby Downs.

The company now pumps about 35 megalitres a day from the basin. The water is taken from two borefields on Dulkaninna station, east of Lake Eyre, on a 200km pipeline south to Roxby Downs.

But Shane Oldfield, owner of a neighbouring station, said more pumping from Dulkaninna would suck the local area dry.

"It's going to bloody kill us if they do get the water from there because we are losing pressure now, and it will cost us more pressure," he said.

Mr Oldfield said Olympic Dam pumping had cut the level of the basin at his homestead by 5m in the past three years.

This year, BHP and previous owner WMC Resources drilled four wells around the area of its main source of water for Olympic Dam, called Borefield B.

The four monitoring wells are being used to determine the underground hydrogeology of the basin.

In conjunction with the local water management board, BHP is attempting to assess the environmental impact of a more than four-fold increase in its pumping.

Arid Areas Catchment Water Management Board presiding member Lynn Brake said BHP was not yet in a position to predict what would happen to the basin. "There is some more information required -- there are areas where water does not flow very well, and other areas that flow really well," he said.

Mr Brake's management board is part of South Australia's system of water prescription, adopted by the Rann Government in 2003. But state Environment Minister John Hill is yet to ratify a draft water allocation plan for the Far North Wells Prescribed Area.

The system is designed to ensure water is used sustainably, with supply guaranteed for all uses, including the environment.

But there may be another way for BHP to take basin water.

Since WMC built Olympic Dam in 1984, the mine has been administered under South Australia's Roxby Downs Indenture Ratification Act.

The act contains a licence under which BHP, which took over WMC earlier this year, takes water from the basin.

Mr Brake said there remained "some confusion" about what legal framework BHP was operating under -- the Roxby Downs act or the state's water management regime.

Mr Hill said a water licence "may be issued under a new indenture act".

But any additional extraction from the basin "would be considered in accordance with the sustainability principles outlined in the draft water allocation plan for the far north wells prescribed area".

BHP is required by law to investigate all possible sources of water for its proposed expansion of Olympic Dam. Among the options is a desalination plant in the Spencer Gulf. A company spokesman said that because of the cost of infrastructure, the final decision would be in favour of one source only rather than a combination of sources.
 
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GOVERNMENT GUTTING RENEWABLES

Cleaner projects gone with the wind
Greg Roberts
January 14, 2006
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17818173%255E601,00.html

WIND farm projects worth billions of dollars are being scrapped by developers citing the federal Government's refusal to boost renewable energy targets.

"We're quitting Australia," Energreen Wind business development director Alan Keller told The Weekend Australian yesterday. "That's the end of it for us."

As the inaugural meeting of the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate wrapped up in Sydney, industry leaders claimed wind farm projects worth between $10billion and $12billion were being lost to overseas markets.

Mr Keller said four Energreen wind farms worth a total of $1.5billion that had state and local government approvals - at Box Hill and Ben Lomond in NSW, Burra in South Australia and Crows Nest in Queensland - were unlikely to proceed.

He said his company had slashed staff numbers by 80 per cent in the past four months and he believed the $10million it had invested in preliminary work would be wasted.

Instead, Energreen is expanding projects in China and India - two of Australia's partners in the climate change initiative.

"Unlike Australia, these countries are looking at up to 30-fold increases in their use of wind power," Mr Keller said.

He said Canberra's refusal to increase its "mandatory renewable energy target" from the current 9500 gigawatt hours of electricity by 2020 meant that there was no future for wind farms in Australia because the target had already been met.

He and other renewable energy industry leaders were invited to the Sydney conference, but as observers only - unlike the representatives from coal and other mineral-based companies, who were active participants.

"It is disappointing that the Government does not recognise that renewable energy is a cost-effective, important way of addressing these issues," Mr Keller said.

"In Sydney, they were interested only in finding technical ways to reduce emissions. That's important, but it's not enough."

Australian Wind Energy Association president Andrew Richards said MRET had only marginally increased Australia's use of renewable energy, with wind farms accounting for less than half of 1 per cent of energy use. "We need a further 5 per cent increase in MRET as a bare minimum," Mr Richards said.

He said his company, Pacific Hydro, was reviewing plans for $1billion worth of wind farm projects in Victoria and South Australia.

"It is very frustrating that we had the foundations for a really good industry and now it is drying up," he said.

Federal Energy Minister Ian Macfarlane said MRET provided the incentive for the wind energy industry to build a solid foundation after the target was adopted in 2001, adding there had been substantial expansion in the industry since then, and the Government did not believe it was necessary to increase MRET.

Instead, it was providing other incentives such as the $25million earmarked for renewable energy projects after the Sydney meeting.

"We believe in looking forward, not backwards," Mr Macfarlane said. "We see renewables as every bit as important as fossil fuels in the energy mix."

Wind power critics say although it is cleaner than coal-fired power, it costs twice as much to generate - costs that would be passed on to consumers in power bills - and that its huge turbines are intrusive.

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NUKES NO SOLUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Unsafe, unsound and unattainable
October 13, 2005
The Age
 
The real danger of going nuclear is diverting policymakers from developing
non-polluting alternatives and cutting waste, writes Alan Roberts.

NOW that the world has generally accepted the overwhelming evidence for climate change, a number of the usual and unusual suspects are proposing we develop safe nuclear power as a safe option and as a fallback if oil runs out soon. The nuclear industry has found some surprising friends, including James Lovelock, developer of the Gaia hypothesis, who hopes that nuclear energy will become a bridge to cleaner, safer technologies.

Debate about the morality of nuclear power has become intense. However, it's purely academic. There's no point in arguing about whether nuclear power should be used to replace fossil fuel. The truth is it can't - it won't do the job, and there isn't enough uranium.

Let's examine a few facts.

A shift to nuclear power - even if it were possible - would have no effect on the bulk of the greenhouse gases emitted because most of these gases come from outside the electrical power industry. For example, the 15 countries of the European Union would still be pouring more than 3 million tonnes of greenhouse gases into the air each year - close to 80 per cent of their present emissions.

California's trucks and cars emit more than 3 times as much greenhouse gas as its electrical plants, and the humming of all-electric cars is still music of the future. Assuming that no one is suggesting developing car-sized nuclear reactors, emission levels will go on rising.

But what about the fossil fuel use nuclear power can replace? Again, there's a lot of illusion here. The construction of a nuclear station, and the mining and processing of the fuel to supply it, requires significant energy and the associated emissions. A detailed study by van Leeuwin and Smith (cited in Arena Journal No.23) found that for poor grades of ore, more energy is needed to process the uranium than the uranium delivers. If you decide to build a nuclear power station, be prepared to wait 10 years. This, plus the years of operation before energy output exceeds the energy taken to build it, means that shifting to nuclear would initially worsen fossil fuel emissions.

Uranium is subject to the same laws of diminishing returns as any other commodity that has to be dug up. The uranium being mined now is generally from very rich ores and these stocks would replace only about nine years of global electricity production. With poorer ore grades, extraction would take half to all of the energy the uranium could yield.

These findings emerge from careful studies. Governments know that nuclear power is no magic bullet for the problem of greenhouse gas emissions. So why have government leaders in the US, Britain, France and China advocated nuclear power - sometimes quite forcefully? Because it is an industry essential to sustainability - of the military rather than the environmental kind. Governments with a nuclear arsenal need the services of a nuclear industry.

Quite aside from the expanded risks of a nuclear accident - especially in poorly regulated areas such as the developing world or the US - there would be the increased risk of plutonium theft, and the more rigorous security apparatus governments would need to create to counter it. It should be obvious that if you're worried about "dirty bomb" terrorism, you shouldn't scatter nuclear plants around as if they were coffee shop chains.

But the greatest danger in the "nuclear solution" lies in the power it has to divert attention and investment funds from the policies that would deal with climate change. Policies to stop wasting energy and to develop non-polluting energy sources such as solar and wind power.

It is significant that in Canada's Action Plan 2000, for its manufacturing, electricity generation, transport, oil and gas, and building industries, the recurring theme is about improving energy efficiency. In California, authorities are taking steps to ensure cars perform better and that solar panels on houses are subsidised.

Such policies can stem the useless flow of wasted energy from polluting sources, which serves no useful purpose but threatens the only planet we have. If we are not hypnotised by the illusory glitter of some sweeping technological fix, we can make our governments adopt them.

Alan Roberts taught physics and environmental science at Monash University. His sources are cited in full in a longer article in Arena Journal No.23.

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URANIUM MINING IN AUSTRALIA

Fuel for thought: nuke debate heats up
By Jamie Freed
January 14, 2006
<www.smh.com.au/news/business/fuel-for-thought-nuke-debate-heats-up/2006/01/13/1137118966693.html>

AT THE Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate meeting in Sydney this week, the focus was on initiatives the six member countries could adopt to reduce their production of greenhouse gases.

Nuclear power was one topic at the forefront, as the US, Japan, South Korea, India and China all operate nuclear power plants - and are planning to build more to help tackle the issue of climate change. Australia, never having built a nuclear power plant, is clearly the odd one out.

The nation's lack of a nuclear power industry might seem curious to foreigners when Australia possesses more uranium than any other country - although it has large reserves of other energy sources such as coal and natural gas, and a small population.

Despite its large trade deficit, Australia mines a relatively low proportion of its uranium reserves, meaning it isn't milking the export market as much as it could.

It's not due to lack of interest from mining companies, which view Australia as a dream destination because of its stable political system, skilled workforce and abundant natural resources.

Rather, it's restrictive Australian government policy - at both the federal and state level - that has so far prevented most of the country's uranium from being mined.

Under the Coalition Government, federal policy has changed, but all state Labor premiers except South Australia's Mike Rann oppose mining uranium, in part because of Labor's long opposition to it.

The policy has forced local miners to look overseas for viable projects.

Take Perth's Paladin Resources. Instead of mining or even closely studying one of its deposits in Western Australia, it will start production at its Langer Heinrich project in Namibia this year. And next on its list is a deposit in Malawi, one of the world's poorest and most corrupt nations.

Paladin managing director John Borshoff is upfront about why his company is developing its first projects abroad. Countries in southern Africa are "less politically hostile" than Australia, he says. "I know that sounds ironic," he's quick to add.

Borshoff has a point. WA's premier, Dr Geoff Gallop, is adamant no uranium mining will be allowed in his state while he remains in office - and his current term lasts until 2009.

"In terms of uranium mining, I'm the premier. We took this policy to the election [last year]," Gallop told the Herald." Our uranium will stay in the ground in Western Australia."

Despite Gallop's firm stance - which several industry sources liken to an ostrich with its head in the sand - companies such as Redport are pinning their hopes on eventual change in policy, or in government.

When Redport - a former gold explorer and internet company - first picked up the Lake Maitland uranium project in WA last April, the market reaction seemed almost inexplicable.

The company's business plan was to mine in WA and ship the nuclear power plant fuel off to China, despite both actions being illegal under state and federal policy. Yet shares in the tiny explorer more than doubled on the day of the announcement.

Unless investors - including institutions such as Fidelity Investments, which holds 12.7 per cent of Redport - have suddenly become keen to sink money into a project going nowhere, it seems a paradigm shift is afoot.

Industry veteran Tony Grey, founder of the now-defunct Pancontinental Mining, says "Australia is still in irons as far as uranium development is concerned".

Grey should know. His company discovered the giant Jabiluka deposit in the Northern Territory in 1971 - and it still hasn't been developed.

"[But] having said that," he adds, "the winds of change are blowing."

While it's difficult to discern whether public attitudes have changed, some Labor figures are beginning to warm to uranium. Labor's federal industry and resources spokesman, Martin Ferguson, is encouraging a widespread debate within his party about the merits of uranium mining and supports exporting it to China as long as it is used for peaceful purposes.

Redport chairman Richard Homsany certainly believed change was coming when his company invested in Lake Maitland. "I think at the moment there is enormous pressure to re-examine that [WA] policy on uranium mining," he said in April. "One cannot ignore the fact it is a clean fuel."

Neither, in the current climate, can it be ignored that Australia is home to 41 per cent of the world's economic uranium reserves and the world's biggest uranium mine, BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam.

On the other hand, for all of coal's environmental ills, Australia's cheap and plentiful supply of the fossil fuel will last the nation hundreds of years.

Coal is also the reason there is a ban on uranium mining in Queensland - its premier, Peter Beattie, believes exporting uranium would undermine its lucrative coal industry.

"There are countries which have to choose between sources for their power stations," says Beattie's spokesman, citing Italy as an example. "He [Beattie] is not going to encourage the nuclear industry."

And apart from coal, there are other energy options in Australia.

Power stations fuelled by natural gas are a possibility, based on large reserves of coal-seam gas and conventional on- and offshore natural gas in Australia and Papua New Guinea, although much of Australia's gas is sold at high prices for export.

Still, Queensland is busy building coal-seam gas power stations to meet environmental targets.

But although nuclear energy has lower emissions than coal - or even natural gas - the costs of building a nuclear power plant are daunting.

An International Energy Agency report found the cost per kilowatt of building a modern nuclear reactor would be around $US2000 ($2650), compared with $US1200 for coal and $US500 for gas.

But over the long lifetime of a nuclear power station, the capital costs would be recouped, making it a viable, low-emission alternative.

While some environmental activists press for the use of renewable energy sources such as wind, water and solar power, these are not effective generators of base-load power, though they can help meet some energy needs.

Anti-nuclear activists add that a nuclear plant malfunction - such as those at Three Mile Island or Chernobyl - is far more devastating on a safety and environmental level than a malfunction in a coal- or gas-fired plant.

Nuclear weapons proliferation is another major issue. Australia does not allow the sale of uranium for weapons purposes and uranium proponents argue that strict international safeguards are effective, but WA's Gallop disagrees.

"The last time there was a major expansion of the nuclear industry there was a proliferation of nuclear weapons, and I have no reason to think the same thing wouldn't happen again," he says. "Added to that, you have the new terrorist threats."

Radioactive waste disposal is another problem - and a daunting one for WA voters. In 1998, the plan of the US company Pangea Resources to build a nuclear waste dump in the state came to public notice after a UK environmental group aired a corporate video touting the project.

After widespread opposition, the WA Parliament passed a bill that made it illegal to dispose of radioactive waste in the state without specific approval. But Gallop worries that if he allows uranium mining, his state will become "part of the nuclear fuel cycle" and will be obliged to accept waste.

So despite the use of nuclear power in developed countries such as the US, Canada, France and Japan, Australia has long been regarded as hostile to uranium and nuclear power.

It wasn't always that way. For a time, it looked like Australia would join the nuclear club, both for energy and weapons purposes.

The local history of uranium goes back to the 1940s.

The Rum Jungle mine in the Northern Territory, owned by the government and operated by Consolidated Zinc (now Rio Tinto), was used to provide fuel for the UK's nuclear weapons arsenal, and South Australia was used as a testing ground for those missiles.

On Australia Day in 1958, the UK provided Australia with its first nuclear reactor at Lucas Heights, and by 1969 there were plans for a nuclear power plant at Jervis Bay, NSW.

At that time, the Liberal prime minister John Gorton wanted to leave open the possibility of producing nuclear weapons and refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

But after widespread protests, Gorton's successor, fellow Liberal William McMahon, canned the Jervis Bay project in 1971.

Retired nuclear scientist Keith Adler, formerly the head of the Australian Atomic Energy Commission, recently told a federal inquiry that anti-nuclear views were commonly taught in schools in the early 1980s.

"At [the] Lucas Heights [nuclear research centre] we had the experience of sending literature to high schools and it coming back, sometimes torn in half," he said.

"I went to a couple of high schools and, on one occasion, I met the then president of the Teachers Federation. We went into the library and it was covered in anti-nuclear literature."

And so in some ways Australia's opposition to domestic nuclear power plants and its lack of nuclear weapons means that its uranium mining industry is similarly underdeveloped.

"Uranium was a proxy for nuclear," Pancontinental founder Tony Grey says. "For those who don't like nuclear power, they can say they want to prohibit the mining of uranium."

When Bob Hawke was elected prime minister in 1983, the Labor Party soon instituted its Three Mines policy, restricting uranium mining to the Northern Territory's Ranger, South Australia's Olympic Dam and Queensland's Nabarlek - a mine that has since been depleted.

The Labor Party had little choice to allow mining at Nabarlek and Ranger, as both were already in operation and Australia's good name as a reliable exporter would have been smeared if they were suddenly closed down.

The case of Olympic Dam was a bit trickier, as it was not in operation in 1983. But at the gigantic open cut mine, uranium is actually a by-product of the huge copper deposit. Copper brings in about 75 per cent of revenue, compared to 20 per cent for uranium and 5 per cent for gold.

And the South Australia Labor leader John Bannon wanted the jobs and royalty revenue the huge mine would create - he needed them to help win the election and become premier in 1982. Therefore, federal Labor agreed to include Olympic Dam in the Three Mines policy, although mining did not begin until 1988.

But Pancontinental's plan to develop the Jabiluka deposit was thwarted.

The Howard Government quickly overturned the Three Mines policy after taking power in 1996, but only one mine has opened since: Beverley in South Australia, owned by US company General Atomics.

But the ban on mining uranium in WA, Queensland, NSW, Victoria - and, until recently, the Northern Territory - is only one of many factors surrounding the uranium issue.

Energy Resources of Australia, which operates the Ranger mine, has been stopped from developing the nearby Jabiluka deposit because of issues with Aboriginal landholders. It bought the deposit from Pancontinental for $125 million in 1991.

Although the Coalition declared the Northern Territory "open for business" for uranium mining last year, it remains a tricky operating environment.

"The most prospective area [for uranium], perhaps in the world, is in the Northern Territory," Grey says. "But that's bedevilled with Aboriginal issues."

The Mirarr people, native title holders to the Jabiluka ground, argue that mining's social and economic impacts would change their way of life. ERA and the Mirarr people agreed last February to place the Jabiluka site on long-term care and maintenance, and ERA will not develop it without consent from the indigenous group.

Aside from the political issues, however, perhaps the biggest hindrance to the development of Australia's uranium industry has been the price of the commodity. At the end of the Cold War, Soviet nuclear weapons soon became a cheap source of fuel for nuclear reactors and depressed the price.

By November 2000, the spot price of uranium was just $US7.10 a pound.

But the ex-Soviet supply has since run out, and by the end of last month, the uranium price had quintupled to $US36.25 a pound due to higher demand and a lack of supply.

Australia's next uranium mine looks set to come from a Canadian company, SXR Uranium One, which has already received approvals from the South Australian Government.

While Canada has much less uranium than Australia, the North American country is the world's biggest producer of yellowcake - and its capital markets are much friendlier towards uranium companies.

In contrast to Australia, Canada receives more than 12 per cent of its energy from nuclear power and its CANDU reactor design has been sold around the world.

"The truncation of the Australian development of uranium has had worldwide repercussions," says Grey, who was born in Canada. "We sort of stood aside in order to allow the Canadian uranium to develop."

Since he sold Pancontinental, Grey has stayed involved with the uranium industry as a director of Canada's Mega Uranium, which this week launched a $20 million bid for South Australian explorer Hindmarsh Resources.

Mark Wheatley, an Australian who serves as a director of Toronto-listed SXR Uranium One, says his company listed in Canada in 1997 (as Southern Cross Resources) because at the time "there was simply no support for uranium exploration and development in Australia".

SXR, formed last month through the merger of Southern Cross and South Africa's Aflease Gold and Uranium, is fortunate that its Honeymoon project is in South Australia rather than 90 kilometres away in Broken Hill, as there is a blanket ban on uranium exploration in NSW.

Having gained nearly all of the needed regulatory approvals, the $US30 million Honeymoon project could be up and running in 18 months, but was delayed by the uranium price in 2004, given the relatively small size of the project.

When a study was done last year, uranium was trading at around $US25 a pound. With the spot price at $US36.25, and many analysts believing it will rise further, the board has approved further development expenditure to gather the extra data required to support a development decision, which could come as early as the first half of this year.

Being in South Australia is definitely a plus, with the Rann administration looking favourably on uranium mining. Prospectors get government grants to help fund exploration, and the environment is so cordial that the Australian division of French nuclear giant Cogema plans to move its headquarters from Perth to Adelaide.

"Adelaide, in five years' time, I think, is going to become a real centre of activity for uranium in Australia," says SXR's Wheatley.

Back in WA, however, large projects owned by mining giants BHP and Rio - both of which might well be economic at today's high uranium prices - are stalled indefinitely in the face of Gallop's opposition.

For a time, Rio Tinto had looked set to proceed with its Kintyre project in WA. It proved up a substantial reserve base and installed a pilot plant to investigate how to process the ore.

But development of the 35,000 tonne deposit was stalled in 1997 because of the low uranium price. The site was decommissioned and rehabilitated in 2002.

Now prices have risen, the possibility of development is "academic", a Rio spokesman says, due to Gallop's ban. But he says Kintyre is a good project that the company plans to retain - meaning Rio seems hopeful of a change in policy.

BHP faces different issues with the Yeelirrie project in WA, which it picked up with the $9.2 billion acquisition of WMC Resources earlier this year (along with Olympic Dam). At 52,000 tonnes, Yeelirrie is Australia's second largest unmined source of uranium behind Jabiluka's 163,000 tonne resource base.

In the 12 years to 1983, WMC and partner Esso spent $35 million planning Yeelirrie as an open cut mine, but plans were withdrawn after Labor instituted its Three Mines policy in 1984. WMC instead decided to focus on mining the 1.5 million tonne resource base at Olympic Dam, by far the world's largest uranium deposit.

Gallop's Government revoked Yeelirrie's WA mining agreement last year, and a BHP spokeswoman said her company's focus regarding uranium mining was "squarely on Olympic Dam and its expansion".

While still in the early stages, if approved, the proposed $5 billion expansion of the Olympic Dam mine would be BHP's most expensive project.

So the mining giant has not decided whether it would be willing to sell the Yeelirrie project - although if it did, there would be no shortage of potential buyers.

With increased prices - along with the Federal Government setting the stage for allowing exports to China's booming nuclear power plant industry - projects not looked at since the 1970s have suddenly become attractive for junior exploration companies.

"Exploration activity now for uranium is probably at the highest level it's been for 20 to 25 years," says Fat Prophets senior resources analyst Gavin Wendt.

But Australia's history of shying away from uranium means there is a dearth of uranium expertise.

"When you have a look at the number of mines that are operating in Australia at the present time there is very little operation and exploration experience in Australia," says Wendt. "It's a real problem. You've got a generation of uranium expertise that's rapidly ageing."

Malcolm Mason, who discovered Paladin's Langer Heinrich uranium project in Namibia, serves as a strategic adviser for Redport. It's one of the few Australian explorers to have someone with uranium experience on board.

Redport marks Mason's second attempt to develop the Lake Maitland deposit. He floated Acclaim Uranium in 1997 on the back of that, and other tenements, but now admits the timing was "dreadful" due to the declining uranium price.

"The thing that fooled me was the huge amount of nuclear weapons around," he says.

Mason returned from retirement to take part in the most recent uranium boom. "The world is so short of energy," he says. "You go talk to the Chinese and they are so desperate for energy it's ridiculous."

Mason hopes the situation will change soon, but like Paladin's Borshoff he believes the greatest hope for uranium mining at the moment lies outside WA and most other Australian states.

"[Redport is] looking for a variety of deposits in a variety of countries," he says, adding "the political risk [in WA] is real, and we would like to obtain assets elsewhere in Australia."

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CONSUMERISM

Headlong to growth overload
The Age
February 8, 2006
<www.theage.com.au/news/ross-gittins/headlong-to-growth-overload/2006/02/07/1139074226595.html>
The rapid growth in the global economy is outstripping the ability of the planet's natural resources to sustain it, writes Ross Gittins.
The greatest economic, geopolitical and environmental event of our times is the rapid economic development of China, closely followed by India's. Its full ramifications are yet to dawn on us.
The bit we haven't twigged to is what it might do to the environment. Two hundred years ago, the countries of the West experienced an industrial revolution that eventually made them far, far richer than all the other countries of the world.
What's happening now is that China and India are going through their own industrial revolutions. But it's taking decades rather than centuries because they're able to pick up off the shelf the latest Western technology, as well as Western capital to finance massive investment in factories and infrastructure.
Since 1980, China's economy has been growing at a rate averaging about 9.5 per cent a year. That means it doubles in size every eight years. India's economy has been growing by only about 5.5 per cent a year, meaning that it doubles only every 13 years.
What makes this spectacular growth far more significant, however, is that China and India are the two most populous countries in the world, each with populations exceeding a billion. Between them, they account for almost 40 per cent of the world's population. By contrast, the rich countries of North America, Europe, Japan and Australasia account for less that 15 per cent.
What happens when two such huge countries sustain such rapid rates of economic growth? Well, for a start, you get a lot of growth in international trade, since both countries are pursuing export-oriented growth strategies. The Chinese are rapidly turning themselves into the globe's chief source of manufactured goods, while the Indians have already captured about half the global offshore outsourcing business.
This is the bit that's frightening people in America and Europe. All they see is low-skilled jobs migrating to Asia. But the next effect is the two countries' rapidly growing appetite for energy, food and raw materials, which perpetually threatens to outstrip supply and keeps upward pressure on prices.
According to a briefing paper on energy insecurity from the Lowy Institute, China is already the second largest consumer of energy in the world (after the United States), while India has moved into sixth place. Their joint share of world primary energy consumption has roughly doubled over the past two decades. Energy demand in both countries is also being boosted by rising incomes and growing urbanisation.
We're most conscious of the effect of demand on oil prices. By 2030, China is expected to be importing three-quarters of the oil it needs, while India imports more than 90 per cent. But oil accounts for only between a quarter and a third of the two countries' total energy consumption. Most of the rest comes from . . . coal. (Sounds of Aussie cash registers chinking.)
By contrast, both countries are largely self-sufficient in their consumption of food, even though the average Chinese consumes today twice as much grain - wheat, rice and corn - as in 1980, directly or in the form of livestock products. But it's hard to see how this self-sufficiency can last. If extended prosperity were again to double Chinese grain consumption per person - to roughly the European level - the equivalent of nearly 40 per cent of today's global grain harvest would be needed in China.
Then there's water. According to a special article in this year's State of the World report by the Worldwatch Institute in New York, China has just 8 per cent of the world's fresh water to meet the needs of 22 per cent of the world's population, while the World Bank has described India's water situation as "extremely grave".
Crop land in China and India is becoming less productive because of erosion, waterlogging, desertification and other forms of degradation. Beyond worries about what may happen to the scarcity and prices of energy and food, the world will need to grapple with a more fundamental constraint: the ability of Earth's ecological systems to support a continually growing global economy while absorbing vast quantities of pollution.
The institute asks: "As China and India add their surging consumption to that of the United States, Europe and Japan, the most important question is this: can the world's ecosystems withstand the damage - the increase in carbon emissions, the loss of forests, the extinction of species - that are now in prospect?"
I doubt it. The concept of a country's "global footprint" shows what its economy needs from nature, measured as the number of global hectares of land and water, to provide its material inputs and accommodate its wastes. The US, with less than 5 per cent of the world's population, requires a remarkable quarter of global biocapacity to support itself. Europe and Japan, with 10 per cent of the world's population, require another quarter. At present, China and India, with almost 40 per cent, require another quarter.
What happens if the Chinese and Indian economies double in the next decade? Remember that China already uses 26 per cent of the world's crude steel, 32 per cent of the rice, 37 per cent of the cotton and 47 per cent of the cement.
The institute concludes: "Global ecosystems and resources are simply not sufficient to sustain the current economies of the industrial West and at the same time bring more than 2 billion people into the global middle class through the same resource-intensive development model pioneered by North America and Europe.
"Limits on the ability to increase oil production, shortages of fresh water, and the economic impacts of damaged ecosystems and rapid climate change are among the factors that make it impossible to continue current patterns on such a vastly larger scale. Humanity is now on a collision course with the world's ecosystems and resources. In the coming decades, we will either find ways of meeting human needs based on new technologies, policies and cultural values, or the global economy will begin to collapse."
Ross Gittins is a staff columnist.

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Our consumerist culture is unsustainable and the world must find alternative ways, says Robert Newman.
<www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/consuming-the-future/2006/02/05/1139074104036.html>
February 6, 2006
There is no meaningful response to climate change without massive social change. A cap on this and a quota on the other won't do it. Tinker at the edges as we may, we cannot sustain earth's life-support systems within the present economic system.
Capitalism is not sustainable by its very nature. It is predicated on infinitely expanding markets, faster consumption and bigger production in a finite planet. And yet this ideological model remains the central organising principle of our lives, and as long as it continues to be so it will automatically undo (with its invisible hand) every single green initiative anybody cares to come up with.
Much discussion of energy, with never a word about power, leads to the fallacy of a low-impact, green capitalism somehow put at the service of environmentalism. In reality, power concentrates around wealth. Private ownership of trade and industry means that the decisive political force in the world is private power. The corporation will outflank every puny law and regulation that seeks to constrain its profitability. It therefore stands in the way of the functioning democracy needed to tackle climate change. Only by breaking up corporate power and bringing it under social control will we be able to overcome the global environmental crisis.
Recently we have been called on to admire capital's ability to take robust action while governments dither. All hail Wal-Mart for imposing a 20 per cent reduction in its own carbon emissions. But the point is that supermarkets are over. We cannot have such long supply lines between us and our food. Not any more. The very model of the supermarket is unsustainable, what with the packaging, transport distances and destruction of national farming sectors. Small, independent suppliers, processors and retailers or community-owned shops selling locally produced food provide a social glue and reduce carbon emissions.
All hail oil giants BP and Shell for having got beyond petroleum to become non-profit eco-networks supplying green energy. But fail to cheer the Fortune 500 corporations that will save us all and ecologists are denounced as anti-business.
Many career environmentalists fear that an anti-capitalist position is what is alienating the mainstream from their irresistible arguments. But is it not more likely that people are stunned into inaction by the bizarre discrepancy between how extreme the crisis described and how insipid the solutions proposed? Go on a march to your parliament. Write a letter to your MP. And what system does your MP hold with? Name one that isn't pro-capitalist. Oh, all right then, smart-arse. But name five.
We are caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of climate change and peak oil. Once we pass the planetary oil production spike (when oil begins rapidly to deplete and demand outstrips supply), there will be less and less net energy available. Petroleum geologists reckon we will pass the spike between 2006 and 2010. It will take, argues oil expert Richard Heinberg, a Second World War effort if many of us are to come through this epoch. Not least because modern agribusiness puts hundreds of calories of fossil-fuel energy into the fields for each calorie of food energy produced.
Catch-22, of course, is that the worst fate that could befall us is the discovery of huge new reserves of oil, or even the burning into the sky of all the oil that's already known about, because the climate chaos that would be unleashed would make the mere collapse of industrial society a sideshow bagatelle. Therefore, since we have got to make the switch from oil anyway, why not do it now?
Solutions need to come from people themselves. But once set up, local autonomous groups need to be supported by technology transfers from state to community level. Otherwise it's too expensive to get solar panels on your roof, let alone set up a local energy grid. Far from utopian, this has a precedent: back in the 1920s the London boroughs of Wandsworth and Battersea had their own electricity-generating grid. As long as energy corporations exist, however, they will fight tooth and nail to stop this.
There are many organisational projects we can learn from. The Just Transition Alliance, for example, was set up by black and Latino groups in the US working with unions to negotiate alliances between "frontline workers and fenceline communities", that is to say between union members who work in polluting industries and stand to lose their jobs if the plant is shut down, and those who live next to the same plant and stand to lose their health if it's not.
We have to start planning seriously not just a system of personal carbon rationing but at what limit to set our national carbon ration. Given a fixed national carbon allowance, what do we spend it on? What kinds of infrastructure do we wish to build, retool or demolish? What kinds of organisational structures will work as climate change makes pretty much all communities more or less "fenceline" and almost all jobs more or less "frontline"? (Most of our carbon emissions come when we're at work.)
To get from here to there we must talk about climate chaos in terms of what needs to be done for the survival of the species rather than where the debate is at now or what people are likely to countenance tomorrow morning.
If we are all still in denial about the radical changes coming - and all of us still are - there are sound geological reasons for our denial. We have lived in an era of cheap, abundant energy. There never has and never will again be consumption like we have known. The petroleum interval, this one-off historical blip, this freakish bonanza, has led us to believe that the impossible is possible, that people in northern industrial cities can have suntans in winter and eat apples in summer. But as much as the petroleum bubble has got us out of the habit of accepting the existence of zero-sum physical realities, it's wise to remember that they never went away. You can either have capitalism or a habitable planet. One or the other, not both.
Robert Newman is a British novelist, musician and comedian.

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TERRORISM - NUCLEAR WASTE AND URANIUM

Terror attack fear for waste facility
NT News 1/11/05
By Nigel Adlam
THE Territory's nuclear waste facility would be vulnerable to terrorist attack, one of Australia's leading nuclear engineers said yesterday. Alan Parkinson, who oversaw the clean-up of the Maralinga atomic bomb testing site in South Australia, said the depository should be stored more securely. He suggested Richmond air base or the Lucas Heights reactor site in New South Wales. Mr Parkinson said waste would be attractive to terrorists wanting to make a ''dirty bomb'', a crude nuclear weapon delivered by conventional means. He said he doubted the Territory facility—which will be built near Katherine or Alice Springs— would be guarded 24 hours a day. Terrorists could attack, steal the waste and escape long before security forces could intervene. ''If terrorists can raid a nuclear waste repository or store and steal radioactive material, they can easily spread it by conventional explosives,'' said Mr Parkinson. ''Thus, the radioactive waste has to be well and truly guarded. ''I believe it should not be dumped at a remote location simply surrounded by a high fence. ''It has to be stored at a site with 24-hour guarding and surveillance.'' The Central Land Council has come out against the nuclear waste facility. The Northern Land Council has said it will accept the depository if traditional owners are given a say in where it is sited. But the CLC said yesterday: ''Despite assurances that the radioactive waste will be carefully managed, the view of traditional owners is that the radioactive waste facility poses serious long term risks to country and people. ''Many Aboriginal people live near the sites in small communities and outstations and they are extremely worried about the proposals. ''They fought hard to get their country back and they believe they should not be the ones to have to live with radioactive waste on their land.''

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Aust nuclear waste at risk of ending up with terrorists: Downer
AAP News wire
By Max Blenkin

CANBERRA, Feb 7 AAP - The longer it takes for Australia's nuclear waste to be stored securely, the greater the risk of some falling into the hands of terrorists, the federal government has warned. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told a conference on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction that it had taken a very long time to develop a national waste repository, a scheme launched under the former Labor government but still not a reality. Addressing the Australian Strategic Policy Institute conference in Canberra, he said states and territories had taken the preposterous view that no waste could be stored on their territory unless it was produced in their territory." The sooner we build a facility the better, he said.

"But we are talking about a low level waste facility. We need medium and we need high level storage as well." Those issues are going to have to be managed as well and there are all sorts of political ramifications. But by definition the long this takes the worse it is, the higher the risks.

We really need to get on with it." Asked whether he was concerned that the slow rate of development of secure nuclear waste facilities posed a security threat, he replied: "The longer it takes the greater the risk." Mr Downer said the federal government was building a facility for storage of Commonwealth low level nuclear waste in the Northern Territory. He said nuclear waste stored at facilities across Australia could not be used to make an atomic bomb.

But it could be used to make a crude radiological weapon, using conventional explosive to scatter radioactive material, causing widespread contamination. Mr Downer also warned that there was a danger a nuclear-armed Iran could transfer nuclear weapons to terrorists. He said there was no doubt Iran had direct links with terrorist organisations Hamas and Hizbollah. "There is an argument that if Iran became a nuclear weapon state it could easily transfer nuclear weapons technology to these terrorist organisations," he said.

Mr Downer said others took the view that it was unlikely the Iranian leadership would contract out WMD to terrorists, even those over whom they exerted significant control."The question here is do you want to take the risk. Every effort has to be made to persuade Iran not to proceed down the path of enriching uranium," he said. In his speech, Mr Downer said traditional techniques for containing the threat of WMD were not enough and the Cold War tenet of deterrence had little value in dealing with terrorists in decentralised networks.

"Nor can we rely on moral repugnance at the horrifying consequences of the use of WMD to constrain the actions of individuals who have shown themselves to be limited only by the tools at their disposal in the damage and death they seek to inflict," he said. "In fact it is the uniquely gruesome consequences of WMD which make them appealing to terrorists. The overriding imperative must be to prevent terrorists from getting their hands on WMD."

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Uranium security to be tightened
By Brendan Nicholson
Defence Correspondent
October 11, 2005
<www.theage.com.au/news/national/uranium-security-to-be-tightened/2005/10/10/1128796469464.html>

SECURITY is being tightened around Australia's uranium production to prevent terrorists stealing nuclear material.

A new report on Australia's role in preventing the development of weapons of mass destruction says ASIO this year completed a comprehensive risk review of uranium mines and transportation.

The report says ASIO found no significant shortcomings but said "some strengthening measures" were envisaged.

Launching the report, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said yesterday there was a real risk that terrorists could acquire weapons of mass destruction.

"We know that a number of terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda, are seeking nuclear, chemical and biological weapons — and that in our own region, groups like Jemaah Islamiah have similar ambitions."

Mr Downer said Osama bin Laden had declared openly that he would use such weapons if he had them and Abu Bakar Bashir, spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiah, recently stated that the use of nuclear weapons was justified "if necessary".

"We know all too sadly the deadly effect of Jemaah Islamiah's homemade bombs, but can we conceive the devastation were they ever to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction?" Mr Downer said.

"The terrorist menace makes our efforts to address illicit WMD trade all the more urgent."

He said transnational terrorists would not be deterred from using WMD by the threat of massive retaliation.

He said terrorists were undeterred by constraints such as deterrence, to which even maverick states could be subjected.

"The only real constraints on terrorists are the resources at their disposal to kill," he said.

Mr Downer said a handful of rogue states were putting the nonproliferation regime under pressure. To make the situation more worrying, Mr Downer said, the number of countries with ballistic missile capability had increased more than threefold to 29 since 1972.

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Nuclear option escalates jihad threat
<www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16774533%255E25377,00.html>
October 01, 2005

IN the past 12 months, influential Islamist jihadist websites have carried an increased discussion on the ethics and strategy of using weapons of mass destruction as part of the global terror campaign. In the week when state and federal governments in Australia have announced tougher rules to monitor and restrict possible and suspected terrorists, we have to take this discussion very seriously.

The Western policy-makers who deal with this do so cautiously. Virtually nobody in authority is being alarmist. But it is the WMD, especially the nuclear, dimension that raises terrorism from the spectrum of gruesome criminality through sustained insurgency and up to genuine strategic threat.

In an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal two weeks ago Prime Minister John Howard, in expressing bitter disappointment at the UN's failure to do anything serious about nuclear non-proliferation, noted that "al-Qa'ida has made no secret of its ambitions to acquire -- and to use -- WMD".

The authoritative discussion of this option among several key religious figures in the global jihadist network should give us serious pause. Former foreign minister Gareth Evans, now head of the International Crisis Group, while acknowledging the real dangers, was this week urging caution and restraint in our response to terrorism.

But his words on nuclear terrorism were sobering: "We know very well how limited our capacity is, and always will be, to deny access to terrorist groups to chemical and especially biological weapons. But the same is true of nuclear weapons."

He spoke of the "stockpiles of fissile material that litter the landscape of the former Soviet Russia, and after the exposure in Pakistan we know far more than we did about the global market for nuclear technology, materials and expertise, and all of it is alarming ... the level of technical sophistication required to make a nuclear explosive device is certainly above the backyard level but it is not beyond competent professionals ... and there is enough [highly enriched] uranium and plutonium lying around now to make some 240,000 such weapons. Much of it -- particularly in Russia -- is not just poorly but appallingly guarded."

In a new volume, Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, published by the Hudson Institution, Reuven Paz of the Israeli Herzliya Centre for the Study of Terrorism, examines several definitive discussions and religious rulings on the use of WMDs in jihadist websites.

Again, Paz is not remotely alarmist. He notes the technical difficulty for terrorists in using nuclear weapons and the relatively small number of such discussions in the jihadist world. Nonetheless, they are disturbing.

In 2003 Saudi Sheikh Naser bin Hamad al-Fahd published the first fatwa on the use of nuclear weapons (he is now in jail in Saudi Arabia). Al-Fahd wrote: "If the Muslims could defeat the infidels only by using these kinds of weapons, it is allowed to use them, even if they kill all."

In a highly significant move, he later published a long, theological defence, citing all the relevant Islamic authorities and providing the kind of scholarly argument for his position that is so important to the committed jihadist. He discounted international law as this was not part of Islamic law. He argued that the US had used WMDs in the past and it and its allies possessed WMDs. He argued, with many recondite references, that Muslims were enjoined to act to the full limit of their ability and this logically necessitated the use of WMDs. His justification covered the general question of using WMDs and the specific case of using them now against the US.

As Paz comments: "Were any Islamist group planning to use WMDs, they have now received the necessary endorsement to do so from an Islamic point of view."

More recently, in December last year, Abu Mus'ab al-Suri, a former leading theorist of al-Qa'ida, published two documents on the "Islamist Global Resistance". He argues that using WMDs is the only way for jihadists to fight the West on equal terms and even goes so far as to urge Iran and North Korea to keep developing their nuclear weapons, seeing them as potential allies. This is particularly surprising as North Korea and Iran are generally regarded as infidel regimes. Their mention in this context demonstrates the flexibility and operational pragmatism even of global jihadism's theoreticians.

He even criticises the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US for not using WMDs, and comments: "If I were consulted in the case of that operation I would advise the use of planes from outside the US that would carry WMDs. Hitting the US with WMDs was and is still very complicated. Yet it is possible after all, with Allah's help, and more important than being possible, it is vital ... the Muslim resistance elements [must] seriously consider this difficult yet vital direction."

He is sceptical of the ultimate strategic value of continued guerilla operations in Iraq, believing they will not inflict a severe enough blow on the US.

He therefore writes: "The ultimate choice is the destruction of the US by operations of strategic symmetry through weapons of mass destruction, namely nuclear, chemical, or biological means, if the mujaheddin can achieve it with the help of those who possess them or through buying them."

Most of this discussion focuses on the US as the ultimate target. However, other nations in the West are routinely mentioned and in many cases secular Muslim regimes are demonised. While naturally what one may call the theoretical discussions of the jihadists focus on the US, it is clear that Australia, along with countless other nations, is a target.

Global jihadism is truly protean; it keeps changing into something new. Suicide terrorism has been a devastating and effective tactic, as well as a kind of quasi-ideology of its own. But there is no reason to think it is the end point of terrorist evolution.

None of this means nuclear terrorism is just around the corner. But these sorts of discussions have been pivotal to the development of terrorist tactics in the past. That they are now concerning themselves with nuclear terrorism in such a considered and comprehensive fashion commands our closest attention.

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N-terror the worst menace
John Kerin
October 11, 2005
<www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16880079%255E2702,00.html>

A JEMAAH Islamiah radioactive "dirty bomb" attack on Australia ranks among the Government's worst terror nightmares.

Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, launching a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade report into weapons of mass destruction, said a handful of rogue states, such as North Korea and Iran, were jeopardising global security by trafficking in weapons.

"We know that a number of terrorist groups, such as al-Qa'ida, are seeking nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and that in our region groups like Jemaah Islamiah have similar ambitions," Mr Downer said.

"Osama bin Laden has declared openly that he would use such weapons ... and Jemaah Islamiah's spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Bashir, recently stated that the use of nuclear weapons was justified 'if necessary'."

The report -- "Australia's role in fighting proliferation" -- says al-Qa'ida-linked groups such as JI lack the capacity to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction.

But it suggests the terrorists could either steal materials from insecure nuclear facilities or obtain them from proliferating states or underground networks.

The report adds that poor security at nuclear facilities in Russia during the 1990s has added to fears that radioactive material was smuggled out of the country and remains unaccounted for.

The report says while a "dirty bomb" -- which combines explosives with radioactive material -- would cause mass panic, it might not produce mass casualties.

But Ross Babbage, head of new defence think tank the Kokoda Foundation, said authorities, particularly in the US, remained deeply troubled about the threat of a dirty bomb attack.

"There is great unease in the US that some nuclear material was smuggled out of Russia in the late 1990s and it still remains unaccounted for," Professor Babbage said.

"A truck loaded with some radioactive material and conventional explosives could have a devastating impact on a city. It could render an area unliveable for a year or perhaps longer."

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SA COMPANY - NUCLEAR WASTE

Nuclear deal in SA firm's sights
By MEREDITH BOOTH
Advertiser
07feb06
<www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,18062087%5E913,00.html>
AN ADELAIDE company is bidding for a nuclear waste-management contract that it says could bring up to $270 million to the state.
Linkforce director David Osborne said winning the deal for a Taiwanese nuclear power station's radioactive waste management could lift his company's workforce from three to 30 engineers and bring $200 million to $270 million into the SA economy.
Design and construction engineers would be taken on in the export of expertise for managing waste on-site.
Mr Osborne said China also offered burgeoning business opportunities from its nuclear power industry.
"They've made provision for funding waste management of it. The Chinese way of thinking is providing for the future," he said.
Linkforce, a Hong Kong and SA-owned company with an Asia-Pacific licence to use Geomelt technology, is looking to Australia to contain hazardous chemicals and low and medium-level nuclear waste. Geomelt technology was first used in Australia in the late 1990s to contain 18 of 22 radioactive pits at former British bomb-testing site Maralinga in the South Australian Outback.
It used electrodes in the ground to vitrify, or turn contaminated soil into rock, to trap radioactive material.
The Maralinga contract ended in controversy after an explosion on the site.
Mr Osborne worked for Linkforce's forerunner, AMEC, on the Maralinga project but has also worked with Geomelt technology in the U.S. to clean up former nuclear-weapons testing and production facilities.
He said Australia was well behind the U.S. and Asia in developing a strategy to deal with nuclear waste.
Linkforce had secured a contract to manage hexachlorobenzene (HCB) waste, a source of cancer-causing dioxin, from Orica's Botany Bay site in Sydney but this had been indefinitely delayed by politicians, he said.
"The problem to a large extent with any technology is nobody wants to be the first to use it," Mr Osborne said.
Political reticence to deal with nuclear and other hazardous wastes also made tendering for contracts in Australia a drawn-out process, a reason why the company was focusing on Asia.
Mr Osborne said it was a shame SA had not grasped potential nuclear waste opportunities.
SA Chamber of Mines and Energy chief executive Phil Sutherland said he was confident the State Government would consider any reasonable project that would bring investment to the state.
"As far as nuclear waste is concerned, our geology is very stable and the far north of our state features large areas of land that are remote and desolate," he said.
"Our uranium industry is governed by stringent environmental and safety regulations. Unlike many other countries, we have the benefit of a stable social and political system."

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IRAN, CHINA, WMD

Dangerous game of nuclear diplomacy
http://smh.com.au/news/national/dangerous-game-of-nuclear-diplomacy/2006/01/29/1138469607253.html
January 30, 2006
Pragmatism rules in some cases, morality in others, writes Cynthia Banham.
IN LONDON tomorrow night, about 20 foreign ministers will sit down together for a meal. The ministers, including the host, Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, and Australia's Alexander Downer, will be in London for a two-day summit on Afghanistan.
However, Afghanistan is not on the menu of the dinner - it is Iran. Two days later the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will talk on the same subject.
According to one government source, the dinner will be a chance to "steel the resolve" of the international community before the atomic agency meets, and "galvanise" its support for the action the Americans and Europeans want the nuclear watchdog to take - report Iran to the UN.
Australia is hardly a key player in the brinkmanship being played out over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Yet Australia's position on Iran is tough and unambiguous. It is "extremely concerned" about Iran's recent actions and its plans for uranium enrichment research, said a recent Department of Foreign Affairs statement.
Back in Canberra recently Foreign Affairs officials held closed-door discussions with Chinese negotiators about a nuclear issue of a different sort. The Federal Government, having announced in August it had agreed to export uranium to China, is negotiating the sensitive nuclear safeguards agreement which will allow that deal to go ahead.
The agreement will stipulate that no Australian nuclear material is to be used for any military purpose - although the Government has admitted it cannot guarantee this won't happen. Detect any inconsistencies in the Government's handling of the nuclear issue?
On one level, the situations of Iran and China are hardly comparable.
Iran has a frighteningly extremist President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel's destruction. Iran has among the world's largest oil and gas reserves, and is hardly in need of alternative energy sources, rendering hollow denials it wants to do nuclear research to build a bomb.
China is one of the five legitimate nuclear weapons states which had nuclear devices before 1968, when the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty came into existence. It has a large civilian nuclear program and has made clear it wants to expand its reliance on nuclear energy.
"China is a recognised nuclear power and a legitimate one, and it uses nuclear power not just for military purposes; in fact for military purposes China uses nuclear power less so than other powers," says Dr Gil Merom, an international security expert from Sydney University, who sees no problem with Australia's export deal with China.
With Iran, however, says Merom, "everybody is rightly concerned".
While there might be no obvious incongruities between the Government's dealings with Iran and China, there is no denying pragmatism - of an economic and a strategic kind - and not morality, directs Australia's nuclear foreign policies.
Take the agreement with China. Australia has 40 per cent of the world's uranium resources and a worsening trade deficit, and China has a huge demand for energy.
If there are any inconsistencies to be found in Australia's nuclear policies, says Professor Hugh White, who heads the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the university, they are in the treatment of India and Pakistan. Both refused to sign the non-proliferation treaty and went on clandestinely to develop nuclear weapons, which they openly declared in the 1990s. Yet, says White, Australia has given de facto recognition to their nuclear weapons status.
He says there is less risk of an Iranian nuclear weapon finding its way into the hands of an al-Qaeda terrorist than there is of a Pakistani weapon doing so.
Downer's office denies any inconsistency in Australia's treatment of different countries. That Australia has refused to export uranium to India - a booming power with huge energy demands like China - because it is not a member of the non-proliferation treaty, his spokesman says, is proof of this.

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NUCLEAR WMD PROLIFERATION

Newish Australian government report/apologia - "Weapons of mass destruction - Australia's role in fighting proliferation - practical responses to new challenges"

This is their pronouncement on all things "WMD" proliferation, with chapters on:
*    Overview: A Changing World: Australia's Response
*    The Proliferation Threat
*    Global WMD Disarmament And non-proliferation Architecture
*    Major Power Initiatives in a Changing Security Environment
*    Cutting Supply to WMD Programs
*    New Responses to Contemporary Challenges
*    The Proliferation Challenge in the Asia–pacific
*    Future Challenges

If you want to see where we are headed, or where the government think we are headed on the issues of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, their proliferation and countering the spread of these "WMD", this could be essential reading. It does not address disarmament measures, but then is consistent with the separation of disarmament and proliferation issues we have seen in recent years by our governments and others. I haven't read it in detail yet but invite your thoughts.

See all here: http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/wmd/

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Published on Thursday, January 26, 2006 by CommonDreams.org
Living on the Edge: Skirting With Nuclear Danger
by Alice Slater
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0126-25.htm
Speech by Alice Slater at the United Nations, January 19, 2006
It is an honor to be here at the United Nations to pay tribute to a genuine world hero, Colonel Stanislav Petrov, who simply by his good instincts in 1983, went against all he was trained to do and averted a terrible nuclear holocaust on our planet. He refused to follow procedures that could have led to the launching of the Soviet nuclear arsenal against the United States, after he had observed an unexplained intrusion of Soviet air space on his computer while serving as the duty officer at Russia's main nuclear command center. It is incomprehensible that today, more than 16 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, the US and Russia are still targeting more than 3,000 nuclear tipped missiles at each other’s cities, ready to go off with even less assurances that an accidental launch could be avoided then we had back in 1983 when Colonel Petrov performed his heroic act. Unhonored by his own country for his extraordinary contribution to humanity, it wasn’t until 2004 that the World Citizens Association acknowledged his contribution. And I’d like to express my appreciation to the Association for bringing this program to the UN today, to let the world know that we are still not out of danger.
It seems, in 2006, that taking US and Russian nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert would be a no-brainer. The “Communist Threat”, used to justify the existence and development of the huge US nuclear arsenals has evaporated. Surely we are in more danger if the weapons remain in their current posture, than if we separated the warheads from the missiles. While that would be an enormous step toward a safer world however, it is not the main task that lies before us. We have managed, under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to keep a lid on the spread of nuclear weapons for nearly 30 years, from the time the Treaty was signed in 1970 to the time India and Pakistan startled the world with a series of underground tests in 1998, announcing that they too had joined the nuclear club, which under the NPT included the US, Russia, China, France and England. Israel had also acquired a nuclear arsenal of about 300 weapons, which the world learned about thanks to another hero, Mordecai Vananu, who spent 18 years in prison for revealing Israel’s nuclear capability, 12 of them in solitary confinement!
But the underlying bargain of the NPT, that the nuclear powers would give up their nuclear weapons in return for a promise from the non-nuclear weapons states not to acquire them was never honored. Indeed, the US is planning to refurbish its entire nuclear arsenal of nearly 10,000 nuclear weapons, with design plans for smaller, more usable nuclear weapons and nuclear tipped underground earth penetrators. Since the time the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was negotiated in 1992, the US started spending $4.6 billion per year, now up to nearly $8 billion per year, for its so called “stockpile stewardship” program that enabled these new designs to go forward. England will soon be debating whether to replace its 400 nuclear weapons carried on its Trident submarine system. France, Russia and China are also modernizing their weapons.
With the abhorrent US policy of preemptive war, it’s new nuclear posture policy that authorizes the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states, and its designation of so called “rogue states” as the “axis of evil”, we are reaping the grim whirlwind of that policy. We now see North Korea and Iran relying on Article IV of the NPT to develop what is ostensibly described as “peaceful” nuclear technology which would give them the capacity and materials they need to build bombs of their own as a deterrent against US threats. Article IV of the NPT provides an “inalienable right to peaceful nuclear technology” as a sweetener to the countries that agreed to forego nuclear weapons. The current flurry of negotiations and the move to try to control the production of the civilian nuclear fuel cycle in one central place, as recently proposed by Mohammed ElBaradei, the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, simply will not fly. It would be just an additional discriminatory aspect of the NPT, creating yet another class of haves and have-nots under the treaty, as was done with those permitted to have nuclear weapons and those who are not. Now it is proposed that some nations would continue to make their own nuclear fuel, while others, such as Iran and North Korea, would be precluded from doing so.
It’s time to support a protocol to the NPT calling for the establishment of an International Sustainable Energy Fund, as we phase out nuclear power and begin to develop the abundant energy of our earth from the sun, wind, tides, and geothermal sources. Whoever heard of a terrorist attacking a windmill? Article IV’s “inalienable right” to “peaceful” nuclear technology would become obsolete, just as Article V, which provides for “peaceful” nuclear explosions, has been rendered inoperative by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty which forbids nuclear explosions of any kind. Clean safe energy is available to us now. We have the technology. We need to be vigilant in providing the ample evidence against specious arguments that it’s not ready, it’s years away, its too expensive--arguments which are made by the corporations in the business of producing dirty fuel as they spend millions of dollars in false advertising and planted stories in the press.
These are corporation which don’t want to lose their ability to continue to profit from the human misery caused by nuclear and fossil fuels. The sun, the wind, the tides, and geothermal energy are here in abundance for all the world’s people and they are free. We already have the technology to harness the bounty of the earth. And we know how to store it when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, by using hydrogen fuel cells. It is clearly not beyond our financial means, as argued by the corporate supporters of toxic fuel industries?particularly when you compare the costs of clean, safe energy to the hundreds of billions of dollars spent annually to subsidize fossil and nuclear fuels. Not to mention the cost of war to protect those poisonous energy sources.
So why don't we have it now? Why don't we have a ten-year crash program to achieve a nuclear, fossil-free, and biomass-free energy transition? Because of the forces that insist on peddling their polluting and proliferating sources of energy--their "cash cows". Once the infrastructure is created to harness the sun, wind, tides, and geothermal, there will be nothing to sell. It would probably be the best way to end poverty on the planet as well--since poor countries can get free, clean earth energy, abundantly available, and will not have to spend their meager budgets for their critical power needs. We need new thinking and it has to start with us?ordinary people who have no corporate interest in perpetuating disastrous forms of energy on the planet. We mustn't buy into the propaganda that it's not ready or that it's too costly. There's ample evidence that those statements are falsehoods, deliberately expounded by corporate interests to keep their profits coming and to oil the war machine.
Now, with the headlines screaming about imminent war against Iran, Mohammed El Baradei is proposing that civilian nuclear materials be produced and controlled centrally to avoid giving Iran and North Korea the keys to the bomb factory. But going for controls and central processing of nuclear fuels, is like starting down a path similar to the one we’ve been on for the last 50 some-odd years for nuclear arms control. Do you think France, Japan, or the US, for example, will surrender control of nuclear materials production, any more than the nuclear powers have surrendered control of atom bombs? It would be a long drawn-out effort with discriminatory rules in the end?when, instead, we could we be expending our energy and intellectual treasure on shifting the energy paradigm to make nuclear and fossil fuel obsolete. If, as we work to phase in safe, clean energy, we continue to work for weapons abolition, we'll have a real road map to a nuclear free world. Otherwise, I fear we are not dealing with a full deck and are doomed to failure in two ways--halting nuclear weapons proliferation and saving our planet from the ravages of climate change caused by the massive carbon releases into our atmosphere. And don’t be fooled by industry deceptions about how “clean” nuclear power is carbon free. Fossil fuel is used in every step of the process of creating these standing bomb factories?from the mining, milling, and reprocessing of uranium to the decommissioning of ageing plants and the transporting and storing of nuclear waste.
What are the prospects for taking nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert and achieving nuclear abolition? Last spring more than 40,000 people marched in Central Park calling for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons on the eve of the failed 2000 NPT Review. More than 1,000 people came from Japan and we had over 40 Hibakusha - survivors of the terrible destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have launched their Mayors for Peace Campaign calling for negotiations for the elimination of nuclear weapons to be completed in 2010 with complete dismantlement by 2020. Abolition 2000, a global network of over 2000 organizations in more than 90 countries is working with the Mayors for a treaty to abolish nuclear weapons. It has drafted a model nuclear weapons convention which is now an official UN document. Abolition 2000 has recognized the inextricable link between nuclear weapons and nuclear power and is circulating a model statute for the establishment of an International Sustainable Energy Fund.
A newly formed Parliamentary Network for Nuclear Disarmament is working with the Mayors and Abolition 2000 to get initiatives started in Parliament for nuclear abolition. Germany has issued a call to work with like-minded countries to amend the NPT to recognize the right to clean, safe energy as a human right and to establish an International Renewable Energy Agency which would be added as a protocol to the NPT. The Global Alliance for the Prevention of Nuclear Weapons and Power in Space is working with grassroots groups all over the world to support the Chinese and Russian annual initiatives to keep weapons out of space which the US has repeatedly blocked. The Norwegian Ministry of Finance has excluded seven companies from their Government Pension Fund - because they are involved in the production of nuclear weapons. A new Abolition 2000 Working Group has been established to work on a divestment strategy. Another Abolition 2000 Working Group is campaigning to get US nuclear weapons out of Europe where more than 400 US weapons are deployed in NATO countries. Working with the Mayors and Parliamentarians, the Belgian Senate has passed a resolution calling for the removal of US nukes from NATO. Next year, a massive demonstration is being organized by the women of the UK at Faslane in Scotland to protest the rebuilding of the Trident submarine arsenals in England. Following the example of the women of Greenham Commons whose 19 year protest and encampment resulted in the removal of NATO’s nuclear tipped Cruise Missiles from the UK, we expect this to be a great civil action that will serve to create a breach in the armor of the nuclear powers, beginning with the UK.
This past fall, led by Canada and Mexico, a group of middle power nations nearly succeeded in establishing ad hoc committees in the Committee for Disarmament in Geneva to begin discussions on nuclear disarmament and a space treaty. Under enormous pressure from the US, they withdrew their proposal, but promised to follow through next fall if there is no progress. The Middle Powers Initiative is supporting this process and other potential avenues to break the disarmament deadlock with its newly formed Article VI Forum. There is a burgeoning grassroots movement for nuclear abolition. The various elements must all be addressed. A realistic plan for nuclear abolition includes the dealerting of nuclear weapons as a first easy step. But if we do not phase out nuclear power and maintain the heavens for peace, we will find ourselves in a state of perpetual war with little chance for a lasting and peaceful nuclear-free world. Humanity was given a great gift when Colonel Petrov followed his human instincts to avert a global catastrophe. Let us not push our luck!
Alice Slater, President of the Global Resource Action Center for the Environment, is an expert in the field of nuclear disarmament. Email to: [email protected].

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The new nuclear fear
January 11, 2006
<www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-new-nuclear-fear/2006/01/10/1136863236668.html>

The struggle to stem the spread of nuclear weapons is being lost, writes Robert O'Neill.

TWO major challenges to our peace and security lie not far ahead: managing relations with nuclear-armed Iran and North Korea. These two countries extend the list of nuclear powers from eight to 10. They present dangers in two ways: through pursuit of their national agendas with their own nuclear weapons in the background and by weakening further the whole international regime against proliferation, in particular the credibility of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

This regime is also under pressure from the increased emphasis that the Bush Administration has been giving to sustaining the usability of its nuclear arsenal. New weapons are under development. The draft strategy prepared by the US Department of Defence in March 2005 calls for the maintenance of an offensive posture with weapons on high alert. The Bush Administration maintains a right to use nuclear weapons pre-emptively against a country suspected of preparing a major attack on the United States.

The incentives for nuclear proliferation are rising while the credibility and cohesion of the non-proliferation structure are declining. Governments in Tehran and Pyongyang will be extremely difficult to persuade against acquiring or retaining nuclear weapons in this context. Probably the real question is what they will do with them.

A nuclear-armed Iran would be a particularly powerful state. Iran has 10 per cent of the world's oil reserves and the second-largest reserves of natural gas. In an international gas market in which the potential role of the largest supplier, Russia, is causing concern in Europe and abroad, Iran has increasing political and economic leverage. In the high-cost oil era we have entered recently, Iran's leverage has been further increased. Its national cohesion has been tested through the 1980s by Saddam Hussein and more recently by US-led sanctions.

Not only has Iran not fallen apart; its determination to pursue its own, narrowly defined national interests under the leadership of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been strengthened. Iran now has a very powerful position alongside Iraq with potential to encourage the increasingly strong Shiite leaders and generally to obstruct the US policy of trying to found a functioning, recognisable democracy that can govern the whole of Iraq effectively. Iran's calls for Israel to be wiped off the map have led to prime ministerial aspirant Benjamin Netanyahu's public advocacy of pre-emptive military strikes against Iran.

If the United States were not so heavily committed in Iraq, there might be more discussion of a Western military option against Iran but clearly the US now has little in reserve by way of conventional military power. Given the slow rate at which progress has been achieved in Iraq, and the cost in human and financial terms, the Bush Administration's credibility as an alliance leader has not been enhanced. In dealing with Iran, there is a strong preference on the part of America's major allies in Europe, and the Russians, to rely on multilateral diplomacy and to exclude the use of force as an option.

The Russians, given their position and their close links with Iran's energy industry, are in the most powerful position to wield influence in Tehran. But the Iranians can extend negotiations for a long time, and they have the leverage to stop their dialogue partners from turning their backs. Will Russia stick with the West or use this problem as leverage against the US for other purposes?

The Iranians are not poor, they are not weak and they are not deeply divided in their own camp. They have been given some clear and expensive lessons by Saddam Hussein and by wider regional events in recent years that must make them think that nuclear weapons would be very handy options to have in their arsenal. They have also seen how soon the great powers ceased berating India and Pakistan for their development of nuclear weapons. The Iranian leadership is probably not losing much sleep about whether to continue their nuclear weapons-related programs.

We are going to have to live with the consequences, which include a weaker non-proliferation regime, a stronger and more assertive power in the Gulf with great local leverage there, and a more dominant player in a tightening world energy market. We will also have to live with the consequences of a more influential Russia in the Iranian problem.

The second source of danger we have to reckon with this year is North Korea. The country makes no bones about the existence of its nuclear weapons program. It is a much weaker power than Iran, politically, demographically, economically and militarily. But it has in common with Iran a feeling of having been treated as a pariah for a long time; it has cohesion and a leadership willing to endure long confrontations; and it has a long record of extremism in rhetoric and occasionally in military action and infringement of diplomatic practice.

A North Korean strike against a local power just before succumbing to external pressures is a very thinkable possibility. The most likely target, for historical, geographical and military reasons, is Japan. And Japan has virtually no leverage in Pyongyang. The only power with much influence in Pyongyang is China. An American military option against North Korea would require Chinese consent that is most unlikely to be given.

The Bush Administration has learnt several lessons from its unhappy experience in Iraq, which more recently it has applied to the problem of North Korea. These include placing prime emphasis on diplomacy rather than force, showing respect for multilateral negotiations with and around the problem power, and not falling victim to the nostrums of political evangelists who claim to know just the person to set up and lead a new democracy in North Korea. But while not stuck to the tar-baby here as in the Middle East, the US does not have many levers to use on Pyongyang. Just as Russia is a vital player in the Gulf, so is China in North Korea. For the sakes of us all in the coming year, I hope it is the State Department that will be in the ascendant in shaping the Bush Administration's policy on Iran and North Korea, and that the President will recognise the potentially vital roles of Russia, China and America's old allies in Europe and the Pacific in preventing two difficult situations from becoming much worse. The consequences of diplomacy breaking down include regional war, nuclear strikes and massive cost, both human and material. They also include two more steps on the way to a world of 20 to 30 nuclear weapon states. Just try to keep that under control.

Professor Robert O'Neill is a former chairman of the Council of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London.

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MI5 unmasks covert arms programmes

Document names 300 organisations seeking nuclear and WMD technology

Ian Cobain and Ewen MacAskill
Saturday October 8, 2005
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1587751,00.html
 
The determination of countries across the Middle East and Asia to develop nuclear arsenals and other weapons of mass destruction is laid bare by a secret British intelligence document which has been seen by the Guardian.

More than 360 private companies, university departments and government organisations in eight countries, including the Pakistan high commission in London, are identified as having procured goods or technology for use in weapons programmes.

The length of the list, compiled by MI5, suggests that the arms trade supermarket is bigger than has so far been publicly realised. MI5 warns against exports to organisations in Iran, Pakistan, India, Israel, Syria and Egypt and to beware of front companies in the United Arab Emirates, which appears to be a hub for the trade.

The disclosure of the list comes as the Nobel peace prize was yesterday awarded to Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the UN watchdog responsible for combating proliferation. The Nobel committee said they had made the award because of the apparent deadlock in disarmament and the danger that nuclear weapons could spread "both to states and to terrorist groups".

The MI5 document, entitled Companies and Organisations of Proliferation Concern, has been compiled in an attempt to prevent British companies inadvertently exporting sensitive goods or expertise to organisations covertly involved in WMD programmes. Despite the large number of bodies identified, the document says the list is not exhaustive.

It states: "It is not suggested that the companies and organisations on the list have committed an offence under UK legislation. However, in addition to conducting non-proliferation related business, they have procured goods and/or technology for weapons of mass destruction programmes."

The 17-page document identifies 95 Pakistani organisations and government bodies, including the Pakistan high commission in London, as having assisted in the country's nuclear programme. The list was compiled two years ago, shortly after the security service mounted a surveillance operation at the high commission which is the only diplomatic institution on the list. Abdul Basit, the deputy high commissioner, said: "It is absolute rubbish for Pakistan to be included. We take exception to these links."

Some 114 Iranian organisations, including chemical and pharmaceutical companies and university medical schools, are identified as having acquired nuclear, chemical, biological or missile technology. The document also attempts to shed some light on the nuclear ambitions of Egypt and Syria: a private chemical company in Egypt is identified as having procured technology for use in a nuclear weapons programme, while the Syrian atomic energy commission faces a similar charge. Eleven Israeli organisations appear on the list, along with 73 Indian bodies, which are said to have been involved in WMD programmes.

The document also highlights concerns that companies in Malta and Cyprus could have been used as fronts for WMD programmes. The United Arab Emirates is named as "the most important" of the countries where front companies may have been used, and 24 private firms there are identified as having acquired WMD technology for Iran, Pakistan and India.

A spokesman for the UAE government said it had always worked "very closely" with the British authorities to counter the proliferation of WMD.

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NUCLEAR POWER, SAFE AS HOUSES. NOT.

Firstenergy Admits to Nuclear Power Plant Cover-Up
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/34624/story.htm
USA: January 23, 2006
NEW YORK - FirstEnergy Corp. Friday admitted that some of its employees made false statements to US regulators about safety violations at one of its nuclear plants and said it had reached a deal with the US Department of Justice to avoid indictment of the utility.
The company's nuclear operating unit, FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Co. (FENOC), agreed to pay a $28 million penalty to the Justice Department and cooperate with criminal and administrative investigations and proceedings. The penalty is the largest ever imposed for nuclear safety violations in the United States, according to the Justice Department.
If the company held to its side of the deal, the DOJ would refrain from initiating criminal prosecution or indicting the company for its conduct related to the problems at its Davis-Besse nuclear plant in Ohio.
Davis-Besse, which can produce electricity for about 900,000 homes, was forced to close in early 2002 when it was discovered that leaking boric acid had chewed a pineapple-sized hole in the reactor vessel's carbon steel lid, a serious safety violation.
Two former plant employees and a contractor who worked on the plant were indicted in Ohio Thursday over the alleged cover-up.
The indictment alleges that David Geisen, Andrew Siemaszko, and Rodney Cook worked to conceal the condition of Davis-Besse's reactor vessel head and lied about the extent of inspections done at the plant.
Geisen and Siemaszko could face up to 25 years in prison if convicted on all counts. Cook could face up to 20 years in prison.
FENOC said it entered into the deferred prosecution agreement with the Environmental Crimes Section of the Environment and Natural Resources Division of the US Department of Justice, as well as the US Attorney's office for the Northern District of Ohio.
In the agreement, FirstEnergy acknowledged that FENOC employees had submitted false statements to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in letters arguing that Davis-Besse could continue to operate safely and in compliance with NRC regulations.
It also accepted responsibility for the violation of law.
"FENOC substituted its judgment for what was necessary from a safety point of view for that of the NRC," David Uhlmann, chief of the Environmental Crimes Section. "There's no place for that kind of brazen arrogance."
Uhlmann said he does not expect further charges related to the violations at Davis-Besse at this time, but wouldn't rule them out.
The plant went back into operation in March 2004 after FirstEnergy replaced the reactor lid, made numerous staff changes at Davis-Besse and revamped plant safety programs.
FirstEnergy said the $28 million penalty would reduce its fourth-quarter earnings by about 9 cents per share.
The agreement runs through the end of 2006. FENOC said it intends to remain in compliance with the deal.
In September FENOC agreed to pay a $5.45 million fine proposed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the corrosion problem.
FirstEnergy shares fell 59 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $50.92 in late trading on the New York Stock Exchange Friday.
Story by Michael Erman
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE

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Over 200 'abnormal events' at nuclear plants since 2000
By Rob Edwards
http://www.sundayherald.com/53177

A DELIBERATE attempt to disrupt security with a tripwire is one of more than 200 "abnormal events" at Scotland's two nuclear power stations revealed in documents obtained by the Sunday Herald.

Other safety incidents recorded at Torness in East Lothian and Hunterston in North Ayrshire include unauthorised waste discharges and problems with reactor fuel and fires. The environment and equipment at the sites have also been contaminated with radioactivity.

On a couple of occasions, manning levels have breached those required by site emergency arrangements. And once the wrong computer software was loaded into a reactor control system.

The incidents were all reported to the government's Health and Safety Executive (HSE) by the nuclear power company British Energy in the last five years. The HSE released summaries of the incident reports in response to a freedom of information request from the Sunday Herald.

The most serious incident was the discovery of the tripwire at Torness. Police were called to the plant in March 2003 after a black cable was found stretched across the top of a flight of stairs.

This had caused a security guard patrolling the nuclear site to trip and fall down the stairs. Both the police and British Energy launched investigations to try and trace the culprit.

The cable was found to have been cut from a coil at Torness, but forensic and other tests were unable to track down the culprit. Investigations had to be abandoned due to a lack of evidence.

The revelation of the incident has rekindled fears that nuclear plants could be vulnerable to sabotage by terrorists. Police chief superintendent David McCracken told East Lothian councillors last week that Torness was a target for international terrorist groups.

Pete Roche, a consultant to the anti-nuclear group Greenpeace, described the tripwire incident as "particularly worrying". The unknown insider who had set the trap could still be working at Torness, he pointed out.

He said: "When considering whether we want another nuclear station at Torness, we should ask ourselves what kind of energy policy would Osama bin Laden want us to adopt."

Roche argued that many of the other incidents at Torness and Hunterston were not trivial. "They illustrate well that just saying we have never had a serious accident doesn't mean we never will," he said.

Between June 2000 and June 2005 British Energy filed 230 incident reports about Torness to the HSE, 39 of then in the past six months. A further 59 reports were filed for Hunterston B, 26 of them in 2005.

On February 17, 2005 at Torness, according to one report, "a nuclear safety-related door in the essential supply building was left open, thus degrading the hazard boundary". At Hunterston on March 26, 2001 there was a "potential discharge of boiler water via unconsented discharge route".

British Energy, however, argued that most of the incidents were minor, reflecting the fact that it reported any anomaly to the safety regulators. "By capturing and dealing with the minor anomalies, the company and the industry ensures nothing serious ever happens," said a company spokeswoman.

"The regulator is also able to prove that it is holding us to account on the minute details so that the public can be reassured about the attention to detail on safety. We believe the public wouldn't want it any other way."

The tripwire incident had been taken very seriously by British Energy, but nothing like it had happened before or since. "Safety is one of the company's fundamental priorities and any safety contravention is treated very seriously," the spokeswoman added.

"In the nuclear industry there are no grey areas. Something is either right or it is not. There are no degrees of right or wrong."

04 December 2005

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JAMES LOVELOCK AND THE END OF THE WORLD

James Lovelock and the end of the world

Edited version published in Crikey, 19/1/06.

Jim Green from Friends of the Earth responds to yesterday's Crikey column on Professor James Lovelock's latest book, in which he argues that it is unlikely that runaway climate change can be prevented.

I must admit to considerable scepticism when I hear James Lovelock's name. His work on the Gaia Theory - on the interdependence of ecological systems - is important and interesting. But it's not particularly original. His fame owes more to his simplistic conception and presentation of complex phenomena. The anthropomorphism of his 'Mother Earth' theory has probably also helped to popularise it. And he has a poetic turn of phrase - "Through us, Gaia has seen herself from space, and begins to know her place in the universe" - which attracts mystics and repels his academic colleagues in equal measure.

But my main problem with Lovelock is that his proposal for a nuclear 'solution' to climate change, which has attracted mountains of publicity, is so intellectually vacuous. For example, he claims that less than 50 people were killed by the Chernobyl disaster, but all the scientific estimates put the death toll in the thousands or tens of thousands. Lovelock wants high-level nuclear waste in the basement of his home to provide heating and for food irradiation, and he insists it is a serious proposal. Suffice to say that he is a self-declared eccentric.

Lovelock has had much to say about nuclear power, but he does not address, even in passing, the crucial issue of the contribution of nuclear power to nuclear weapons proliferation. This is by far the greatest problem with nuclear power. Four or five countries have used their 'peaceful' nuclear programs to develop arsenals of nuclear weapons - India, Israel, Pakistan, South Africa and possibly North Korea. In the five 'declared' nuclear weapons states - the US, UK, France, China and Russia - nuclear power programs provide a large pool of nuclear expertise from which WMD programs draw. It is no coincidence that the five declared nuclear weapons states all have nuclear power programs and that they account for almost 60% of global nuclear power output.

Even if we were to wish away a problem as profound as nuclear weapons proliferation, nuclear power could at most provide a very partial and problematic 'solution' to climate change. To double nuclear power output by the middle of the century would require the construction of about 1,000 reactors with a capital cost of several trillion dollars. The reactors would produce 1.5 million tonnes of spent nuclear fuel over a 50-year lifespan, and they would produce enough plutonium to build 1.5 million nuclear weapons. The climate dividend? A lousy 5% reduction in greenhouse emissions. And that assumes that the comparison is with fossil fuels; if the comparison is with renewables and energy efficiency measures, nuclear power results in increased greenhouse emissions in addition to the legacy of nuclear waste and plutonium. A US study found that, per dollar invested, energy efficiency measures yield greenhouse emission reductions seven times greater than nuclear power.

As for Lovelock's latest book, The Revenge of Gaia, he is almost, but not quite, so pessimistic as to have lost interest in efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions and thereby to reduce the impacts of climate change. We can hope that climate sceptics such as Mark Steyn are right, pray that Lovelock's doomsday scenario is wrong, but public policy must be guided by the weight of scientific opinion which holds that climate change is happening and that its adverse effects will become more apparent in the coming decades. Few if any scientists would argue that the situation is hopeless and that climate change abatement measures are pointless. Therefore, we should assume that concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions will be worthwhile and must be pursued.

Stripped of its extreme pessimism and the mystical language, Lovelock is saying this: the adverse effects of climate change are already apparent and will only get worse, so we need to adapt to climate change in addition to ongoing efforts to reduce emissions. There's nothing new there. For some years, Friends of the Earth's 'Climate Justice' campaigners have been working with Pacific island communities already effected by climate change, lobbying for climate refugees to be recognised and if necessary resettled. In addition, FoE has been campaigning for serious efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions. Abatement and adaptation.

Recently, the ALP released a policy recognising the need to address the problem of climate refugees. The Howard government has also put more emphasis on climate change adaptation in recent years, but it's no more than a cynical manoeuvre to distract attention from its failure to get serious about reducing greenhouse emissions. The government refuses to recognise or resettle climate refugees.

In reality, the government is doing little to avoid climate change or to adapt to it. Last week's Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate conference was typical. The government promised $25 million for renewable energy - enough to build one wind farm. The government's record on renewable energy is disgraceful - abolishing the Energy Research and Development Corporation in 1997-98, withdrawing funding from the Co-operative Research Centre for Renewable Energy in 2002, refusing to extend the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target, and so on.

(Information on FoE's Climate Justice campaign is on the internet at <www.foe.org.au/climate>. For more information on Lovelock's nuclear advocacy, see Appendix 2 to the report 'Nuclear Power: No Solution to Climate Change', on the internet at <www.melbourne.foe.org.au/documents.htm>.)

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USA - AUSTRALIA ANZUS ALLIANCE

America: the cost of alliance
<www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/america-the-cost-of-alliance/2006/01/08/1136655083334.html>   
January 9, 2006
 
Increasingly, the alliance with the United States is not in Australia's strategic best interests, writes John Langmore.

WHEN Australia was the only country to join the United States and Britain in the invasion of Iraq, many United Nations diplomats and staff were surprised and asked why. The answer begins, of course, with the trauma of near-invasion by the Japanese in 1941-42 and gratitude to America for protecting Australia.

Australians sometimes forget, though, that this action was a by-product of America's need for a base from which to organise its response to the Japanese. President F. D. Roosevelt told Richard Casey in 1941 that, while the US would go to the defence of Canada if it were attacked, Australia and New Zealand were so far away that they should not count on American help.

The treaties signed at the start of the Cold War are strong bonds. The ANZUS Treaty of 1951 was a formal expression of Australia's dependence on the US for protection and has been a central element of Australian defence and foreign policy ever since. All Australian governments for 60 years have, as Don Watson comments wryly, "thought it wise to be friends with them".

The view that shared values provide a strong basis for the alliance is misleading. There are similarities — of language, ethnicity and political institutions — but even those are declining.

Perhaps the Howard Government's claim of "shared values" is simply a less explicit way of noting the extent to which it has copied the market-fundamentalist economic ideology and complied with the neo-conservative foreign policies of the Bush Administration.

Crucial divergences are underlying the national purposes of the foreign policies of the two countries. Americans maintain their sense of being God's own country with a manifest destiny to lead the world to freedom and democracy. Australia has no global ambitions, and those related to the region are for stability and economic advancement rather than dominance.

Shared values are not the determining force for an alliance. The strength of a strategic partnership must be determined principally by strategic issues.

The central fact about the Australian-American alliance is that it does not mean much to the Americans. Australia's support has been of value to US administrations seeking to legitimise their actions — in Korea, Vietnam and the Iraq wars — but Australia's military contribution to those wars was marginal.


Has the closeness of the relationship added to Australia's security? The explicit mention of Australia in the US National Security Strategy is reassuring to some. Bush has been personally grateful for Howard's support. Australia has supported the US in five major wars, but what difference does that make?

Professors Stuart Harris and Amin Saikal of the Australian National University emphasise that: "The US has long made clear that the US national interest comes first in its actions. For Australia this was made very evident over its involvement in East Timor, where the US, while helpful, extended only limited assistance, emphasising the priority of its own national interests, including its relations with Indonesia."

A potential issue of greater importance is the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, in which Australian and American national interests could well be sharply different.

There are practical benefits from the American alliance. By increasing the community's sense of security, the existence of the alliance can probably keep Australian military expenditure lower than it might be otherwise. Kim Beazley claimed when defence minister that the US defence association saved Australia 1 per cent of national income.

A second benefit claimed by supporters of the alliance, readier access to American weaponry, means little. The US Administration is seeking to waive licensing rules for Australia to buy certain classified types of military equipment but Congress has opposed the proposal. Australian policies do not give congressional leaders sufficient confidence to relax controls on exports to Australia since this might play into the hands of terrorists.

Another benefit claimed for the alliance, the sharing of intelligence, is looking more like an impediment to well-judged policy. There were substantial costs from uncritically accepting the "intelligence" provided by the United States about Iraq.

There are major political, financial, and military costs from Howard's closeness to the Bush Administration and his Government's imitation of American ideology and policies. These positions restrict Australia's capacity to express its own international priorities, have weakened Australia's independence and its standing with regional neighbours and at the UN.

If it has any significance, Howard's obedience is reinforcing the aggressive, unilateral American policies. The likelihood of pressure to participate in further expeditions is increased.


Opportunities to act as a catalyst and supporter for conflict resolution, peacekeeping, and development are lost. Integration of defence force structure and procurement adds to defence costs, as do additional military expeditions. The risk of becoming a terrorist target increases.

The Lowy Institute poll published in March 2005 showed that two-thirds of Australians think too much notice is taken of the US in foreign policy. Australia will be more secure when there is an orderly multilateral system than in a world where the only superpower reserves the right to unilateral pre-emptive use of military force.

The issue is not whether to retain or renounce the US alliance. To abandon the American alliance would erode what little scope for influence is available to Australia, would lead to increasing defence expenditure and would probably be electorally unacceptable. Rather, the immediate issue is about the policies adopted and advocated by Australia within the alliance.

Australia should affirm the value of the multilateral framework and urge US multilateral engagement and adherence to international norms, treaties and law. Australians can also support the majority of Americans who want their country to be an honourable participant in the multilateral system.

Former Labor MP John Langmore was a director at the UN from 1997 to 2003 and is a professorial fellow in political science at Melbourne University. This is an edited extract from his Dealing with America: the UN, the US and Australia (UNSWP).

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AUSTRALIA'S ROLE IN US MISSILE 'DEFENCE' PROGRAM

Australia's key role in missile shield
By Brendan Nicholson
The Age
January 7, 2006
<www.theage.com.au/news/national/australias-key-role-in-missile-shield/2006/01/06/1136387625745.html>

AUSTRALIA'S secret Jindalee radar network, capable of "seeing" over the horizon, is a key link in a new anti-ballistic missile shield that will protect much of the globe.

The missile defence system, designed to protect America and its allies from missiles launched by "rogue states", will integrate defensive missile systems on land and at sea with spy satellites and the navy's new generation air warfare destroyers. The warships are still to be built and are scheduled to be operating by 2013 to 2015.

US scientists who have examined the Australian-invented Jindalee system, which operates across Australia's northern frontier, were impressed by its range and capability and confirmed that it could detect a missile launch far away in Asia.

Officials from US aircraft and weapons manufacturer Lockheed Martin told The Age the Australian system, officially known as Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN), would be a highly effective part of the global missile defence shield being developed by the US.

It significantly increased the time available for a defence system to intercept missiles.

They would not give details of the radar's range but said Jindalee, with its giant aerials across the Top End, would be part of an electronic network, including spy satellites and the yet-to-be built air warfare destroyers, able to pick up the launch of a missile and, by tracking it, work out its target. The ship or a land-based anti-missile system would then shoot the missile down.

On the face of it, the missile shield system is designed to protect the US and its allies from missiles fired by "rogue states" such as North Korea.

But its opponents say the system will trigger an arms race by encouraging countries such as China and Russia to build enough missiles to be sure of penetrating any defence system.

In briefings in the US, Lockheed executives were enthusiastic about Jindalee's effectiveness.

While standard radar sends a signal along line of sight until it bounces off a target ship or aircraft, JORN bounces signals off the ionosphere, which lies above the stratosphere and extends about 1000 kilometres above Earth.

The signal then bounces down onto its target. In that way it can apparently pick up even sophisticated stealth bombers, which are virtually invisible to standard radar.

In July 2004 Australia agreed to co-operate with the US on missile defence and early last year Lieutenant-General Henry Obering, the US Air Force officer overseeing development of the missile defence system, visited Australia for talks with government and defence officials involved in the Jindalee project.

US warships fitted with the Aegis missile control system have six times tracked and destroyed missiles outside the Earth's atmosphere. The ship fires counter-missiles to intercept an incoming missile. This has been compared to trying to shoot down a rifle bullet with another rifle bullet.

The immense heat generated by the missiles smashing into each other vapourises any chemical or biological agent.

Lockheed will not reveal the range of the anti-ballistic missile system, but it is known to cover hundreds of kilometres.

Australia will spend tens of billions of dollars over the next decade keeping up with a world of sophisticated military technology that will see increasing numbers of countries developing long-range missiles that can be tipped with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads.

Australia will buy three air warfare destroyers, to be equipped with the Aegis missile control system, and up to 100 high-tech stealth jets to replace the RAAF's F/A-18 fighter-bomber and F-111 bomber fleets. The Government has not yet confirmed what it will spend on the Aegis system to go into the destroyers but Lockheed is obviously keen for Australia to buy the version capable of knocking down intercontinental missiles.

In this fast-evolving "networked" warfare, there will also be a major role for the new Boeing 737 Airborne Early Warning aircraft.

The multi-purpose jet that is likely to be bought by Australia is the Lockheed F-35 — designated as a joint strike fighter (JSF). Two years ago Australia paid $150 million towards the cost of developing the JSF and the Government is considering spending $12 billion to $16 billion on the new generation fighter-bombers.

It will decide in 2008 whether to buy the aircraft, which were originally expected to be operational in 2012.

Lockheed officials said Australia was not likely to have its first combat squadron of 16 joint strike fighters ready for action before 2014. That is four years after the RAAF's F-111 bombers are due to be retired and two years after the first of its F/A-18 Hornet fighters are scheduled to be withdrawn from service.

Lockheed executive vice-president Tom Burbage also confirmed that Australia was the frontrunner to set up a regional maintenance centre for the new fighter.

The original US plan was to produce 2457 fighters, most of which would be bought by the US Air Force, US Navy and Marine Corps. The ultimate cost of the fighter will be clear only when the US Government decides finally how many it wants. If the number is reduced the cost of each aircraft will rise. Indications are that the number will be cut back, but that will not be known until the US Government completes its quadrennial defence review, due soon.

The cost could be pushed above the $45 million Australia originally anticipated paying for each fighter.

Mr Burbage confirmed that the "fly-away cost" of each would be about $67 million.

Deputy Defence secretary Shane Carmody told a parliamentary inquiry recently if the US cut the number of fighters it bought, the price of each would increase. There was a view within Defence that that could force Australia to cut the number it bought from 100 to 50, he said.

Brendan Nicholson travelled to the US as a guest of Lockheed Martin.

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SMART MONEY TAKES LEAVE OF URANIUM

Briefcase - Smart money takes leave of uranium
20-October-05
Written by Tim Treadgold
WA Business News

What's wrong with this equation? Mum and dad speculators continue to play the uranium game by investing in penny dreadful exploration stocks, while three major shareholders in Australia's biggest pure uranium producer sell.

Fairly obvious, isn't it? One side buying, the other side selling. Less obvious is the fact that both events flag the end to this phase of Australia's great uranium revival.

The sellers, in this case, are Cameco of Canada, Cogema of France, and Japan Australian Uranium Resource Development Company. All three have decided to cash in the chips they hold in the Rio Tinto-controlled Energy Resources of Australia (ERA).

Cameco, Cogema and JAURDC are serious players in the uranium game. Cameco, for future reference, is the world's biggest single uranium producer with mines in Canada, the US and the former Soviet satellite of Kazakhstan.

These three, with respective interests of 6.7 per cent, 7.8 per cent and 10.6 per cent in ERA, opted to convert their unlisted B and C-class shares into conventional ERA shares, and sell while the price is high. In fact while the price, according to Briefcase, is ridiculously high.

In Cameco's case it meant converting a $20.4 million investment made in 1998 into $191 million in cash, such as been the effect of the spectacular rise in the price of ERA shares, which have soared from a 12-month low of $4.85 to a high this year of $17.99, but have, more recently, eased back to $14.57.

Meanwhile, as experienced uranium players exit the game, mum and dad investors continue to ask naïve question such as "which uranium stocks should I buy?" and "do you think they'll continue to rise?".

The gullibility is stunning.

Yes, there has been a run among the uranium penny dreadfuls. Why, because the mob reckons that the time of uranium has come, that the world is re-adopting the nuclear fuel cycle as a viable, non-greenhouse gas energy source, and Australia is loaded with the stuff.

Everything about this is true, but three little issues are being overlooked
* time, supply, and demand.

On the small matter of time, that is the time it will take to convert a uranium discovery into a mine, you can add the political factor * and ask the question of when will the Australian Labor Party lift its ban on the development of new uranium mines. There are signs that this is happening, but the key event, the 2007 ALP National Conference, is still two years away.

On the questions of supply and demand it seems to Briefcase that the world's 480 (or so) nuclear power stations are quite adequately supplied, even if the spot price of the fuel has risen (along with every other commodity) over the past year.

The higher price is a big win for miners in production, such as ERA, Cameco and BHP Billiton, and there is no question that they, along with everyone else with a uranium mine anywhere in the world will be lifting output to satisfy demand.

And, on the question of demand, ask this time-linked question: how long does it take to get government and environmental approvals to build a new nuclear power station, and how long does it take to actually build? To both questions the answer is years, and more likely decades.

This comes back to the point about the smart money, which understands the uranium market heading for the exit, while less clued-up people continue to buy uranium penny dreadfuls rather than do something sensible, like bet the house (the wife and the kids) on the horse carrying the jockey wearing pink polka dots in the fourth at Ascot next Saturday.

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Investors vote with feet
12 October 2005
The Australian - letters

IF there was a real chance of the Jabiluka uranium deposit being developed, why would three pro-uranium shareholders be pulling out of Rio Tinto-owned ERA ("Uranium enrichment: ERA minority stake vendors are glowing", 11/10) ?

These mining companies are voting with their feet. And fancy footwork it is too. They know there have been more than 120 leaks, spills and operating breaches at ERA's controversial Ranger mine since 1981. They know the company pleaded guilty this year to breaches of Northern Territory mining laws and that it's due back in court this Friday for alleged breaches of occupational health and safety laws. They know Ranger has only five more years to run. Following that comes the costly, and as-yet undisclosed, clean-up, closure and exit. And they know there is no reason to believe the Mirarr traditional owners will change their position on ERA's Jabiluka deposit. Large institutional investors should think hard about the economic risks of having large amounts of capital tied up in dead-end projects. Taking their money down to Flemington on the first Tuesday in November would probably be a better bet.
Dave Sweeney
Australian Conservation Foundation

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DIRTY BOMBS LABS IN AUSTRALIA

New 'dirty bomb' labs
Simon Kearney
September 28, 2005
<www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16745760%255E601,00.html>

A NETWORK of anti-terror chemical analysis laboratories will be set up in capital cities amid fears Australia could be targeted by a "dirty bomb".

The laboratories will be built to accelerate Australia's response to any chemical, biological or nuclear terrorist attack.

They will work in conjunction with a new $17.3million research facility in Canberra, which will study ways of detecting and countering terrorist attacks using chemical, biological or radioactive material.

John Howard said the centre would be federally funded and run by the Australian Federal Police.

A government source said the new centre would be modelled on the AFP's bomb data centre, which was integral to the investigation of the Bali terrorist bombings in October 2002.

"It's going to be pro-active, provide technical advice and intelligence, and it will try and raise awareness of the threat posed," the source said.

In addition, the centre will educate police forces around the country about the threat.

In recent years, the federal Government has given money to state governments to purchase equipment to respond to a chemical, biological or radiological (CBR) attack.

John Howard said the National Counter-Terrorism Committee would start developing a strategy for dealing with such an attack.

A spokeswoman for Attorney-General Philip Ruddock said that while the Government did not currently have a strategy for a CBR attack, Canberra was conscious of the issue.

"It's an area we've been building up," she said. "It's a cumulative and progressive effect (and) has been the subject of funding allocations in previous budgets."

Australia's main response to the possibility of a CBR attack has so far been the army's Incident Response Regiment, based in Sydney and designed to respond quickly to such an attack at home or overseas.

Australian Homeland Security Research Centre director Athol Yates said the announcement was recognition that the capacity of the Incident Response Regiment to respond quickly enough with analysis was limited.

The new laboratories would supplement and expand the existing capacity of hospital laboratories in capital cities to analyse "white powder" threats.

Mr Yates said the new funding was recognition that the threat of a "dirty bomb" was increasingly playing on the mind of governments.

"It's recognition that radiological, chemical and biological weapons are a realistic threat, compared to in the past, where they were more a fanciful threat."

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HEALTH HAZARDS OF LOW-LEVEL RADIATION

Radiation Dangerous Even at Lowest Doses
Science, Vol 309, Issue 5732, 233 , 8 July 2005, p. 233.
Jocelyn Kaiser

A new National Research Council (NRC) report* finds that although the risks of low-dose radiation are small, there is no safe level. That conclusion has grown stronger over the past 15 years, says the NRC committee, dismissing the hypothesis that tiny amounts of radiation are harmless or even beneficial.

The risk of low-level radiation has huge economic implications because it affects standards for protecting nuclear workers and for cleaning up radioactive waste. The Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII (BEIR VII) panel examined radiation doses at or below 0.1 sieverts (Sv), which is about twice the yearly limit for workers and 40 times the natural background amount the average person is exposed to each year. For typical Americans, 82% of exposure stems from natural sources such as radon gas seeping from Earth; the rest is humanmade, coming mostly from medical procedures such as x-rays.

In its last report on the topic in 1990, a BEIR panel calculated risks by plotting cancer cases and doses for survivors of the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan in World War II. Risks appeared to increase linearly with the dose. Based on evidence that even a single "track" of radiation can damage a cell's DNA, the panel extrapolated this relationship to very low doses to produce what is known as the linear no-threshold model (LNT).

Some scientists have challenged this LNT model, however, noting that some epidemiological and lab studies suggest that a little radiation is harmless and could even stimulate DNA repair enzymes and other processes that protect against later insults, an idea known as hormesis (Science, 17 October 2003, p. 378).

But the 712-page BEIR VII report finds that the LNT model still holds. The panel had the latest cancer incidence data on the bomb survivors, as well as new dose information. Committee members also reviewed fresh studies on nuclear workers and people exposed to medical radiation, all of which supported the LNT relationship. The model predicts that a single 0.1-Sv dose would cause cancer in 1 of 100 people over a lifetime. Such risks should be taken into account, the report cautions, when people consider full-body computed tomography scans, a recent fad that delivers a radiation dose of 0.012 Sv.

At the same time, notes panelist Ethel Gilbert, an epidemiologist at the National Cancer Institute in Bethesda, Maryland, "we can't really pinpoint" the risk at the lowest doses.

The BEIR VII panel examined the latest evidence for a threshold. But it found that "ecologic" studies suggesting that people in areas with naturally high background radiation levels do not have elevated rates of disease are of limited use because they don't include direct measures of radiation exposures. The panel also concluded that animal and cell studies suggesting benefits or a threshold for harm are not "compelling," although mechanisms for possible "hormetic effects" should be studied further.

Toxicologist Ed Calabrese of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, a vocal proponent of the hormesis hypothesis, says the panel didn't examine enough studies. "It would be better if more of the details were laid out instead of [hormesis] just being summarily dismissed," he says. The panel's chair, Harvard epidemiologist Richard Monson, acknowledges that the long-running debate over the LNT model won't end with this report, noting that "some minds will be changed; others will not."

* Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR VII
Phase 2 <books.nap.edu/catalog/11340.html>


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