BREAKING NEWS - MARCH 17 BOMBING OF IRAQ HOTEL


Aaron reporting via phone


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CNN BREAKING NEWS
Car Bomb Explodes Outside Baghdad Hotel
Aired March 17, 2004 - 13:30 � ET

(Approximately 1:45 pm ET)   --- Georgette

PHILLIPS: Our Aaron Brown has been traveling throughout the region. He's actually in Islamabad, Pakistan, right now, just recently, he sat down for a one-on-one with general John Abizaid, of course, the head of U.S. Central Command, the head of the forces there on the ground in Baghdad. Aaron, you said when you sat down with the general, he actually predicted something like this could happen.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, it is the view of the general of the military, generally, that this period between now and June 30th, when the CPA hands over sovereignty back to the Iraqis, is the most dangerous period. They felt certain it would be as violent as any period since the end of major combat, and they believed this because they believe that the -- not so much the Baathists, but the al Qaeda affiliates, the Zarqawi, group that's operating in Iraq, is literally trying to create a civil war, and they -- it is the view of the military that if sovereignty is handed over before that civil war starts, it won't start. So they have to do it now.

So I can say with some confidence that General Abizaid and his senior staff are hardly surprised. I guarantee you, they're heart broken, but hardly surprised by what's happened today.

PHILLIPS: So as you, I'm not quite sure how long you've been in the region, Aaron, if you have been...

BROWN: We've been here...

PHILLIPS: Yes?

BROWN: I'm sorry, we've been here a week now.

PHILLIPS: A week now. And have you made your way over to Iraq, or have you been spending most of your time in Pakistan?

BROWN: No, no, we've been through Iraq, and we came out of Iraq last night -- I'm sorry -- the day before yesterday, into Pakistan, where we talked with Secretary of State Powell today.

PHILLIPS: And has the secretary of state, I mean, what did he say to you, what has been said, I guess, as he has been addressing troops and other Iraqis, getting ready, of course, to hopefully take over a new government there. What has he said about security, and situations like this?

BROWN: Well, it is -- this -- the incident that's happened in Baghdad today, happened as best I can put this together, about 15 or 20 minutes after the interview with the secretary. So he -- neither he nor I could possibly address it.

In a general way, it is the view of the American government that this is a very dangerous time for the reasons that we talked about a moment ago. It's dangerous -- you know, any circumstance in Iraq these days, but it's particularly dangerous now, because the clock is ticking on this handover at the end of June.

Now just a couple of other observations here, and that's all they are, as we look at this, as you look at this, from somewhat afar here in Pakistan. This is not the kind of attack that has been to this point the work of the Baathist holdout. They've been more inclined to use the improvised explosive devices. They have been more inclined to attack American troops than Iraqi civilians. This is much more like the attack in Karbala on the Islamic holiday of Ashura, what now two weeks ago or so, that claimed so many lives. It is absolutely the view of the American military that that attack, those car bombings, were the work of Zarqawi, this al Qaeda affiliate, who is operating viewers almost certainly will recall that the military intelligence intercepted a letter, a memo that Zarqawi had written, where he essentially laid out the plan. He said we're going to have to kill Muslim to create this civil war. If we're going to win this, we have to do this before the handover, because after the handover, we don't have an argument anymore, because the Iraqis, theoretically are back in control of their own government.

So while we can't know who is responsible for this yet -- it's way too early for that, we can, based on everything that's happened in the last months, make a pretty educated guess, that of the three groups that are operating in Iraq against the American and coalition effort, the Baathist, the Zarqawi, al Qaeda types, and the random jihadists who just seem to be coming into the country in twos and three, this is likely, likely the work of the Zarqawi, Al Qaeda affiliate types.

PHILLIPS: Well, you talk about the twists and timing, Daryn. It was one year ago today I remember getting briefed on the U.S.-led invasion that was about to happen, and it was a day later, tomorrow, a year ago tomorrow, that you and I were doing live shots on OIF in the beginning of that. Interesting twist.

Aaron Brown, in Islamabad, Pakistan. We will talk to you more as the story continues to unfold.

________________________________________________________________

CNN BREAKING NEWS
Explosion Targets Large Baghdad Hotel
Aired March 17, 2004 - 14:30 � ET

(Approximately 2:45 pm ET)   --- Georgette

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, as we told you early on in the coverage, our Aaron Brown has been traveling throughout the region. As a matter of fact, just left Iraq yesterday. He's now in Islamabad, Pakistan. He had a chance to spend time with the commander of the U.S. Central Command, General John Abizaid. He's also been spending some time with Secretary of State Colin Powell as he travels through the region. Aaron, as things have progressed, you and I talked about an hour and a half ago, have you had a chance to talk with the general or the secretary of state? Bring us up to date on where you stand right now.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, we would make a couple of observations based on the reporting that we've seen. No. 1, the reporting coming out of Iraq is that most of the victims, most are Iraqis. That's a clue as to who may well be responsible for this.

When you look at the makeup of the bad guys in Iraq right now, the former Ba'athist as one element have tended to target Westerners, Americans, American soldiers, NGOs, as in the incident in Mosul yesterday where the Baptist missionaries.

The classic terrorist types, the Zarqawi group, has tended to go for this sort of large scale attack on Iraqis themselves. It is in the view of most American military intelligence people that the former Ba'athists will not target other Iraqis. But the al Qaeda-affiliated groups that are operating in Iraq will.

If the reporting, as we know it now, bears out, that most of the dead and injured are, in fact, Iraqis, that is a very clear sign that it is an al Qaeda-affiliated group. And when we say affiliated, because that's precisely what it is.

Zarqawi is, in General Abizaid's view, a madman. This is a madman kind of killing. He's a sophisticated enough terrorist with a sophisticated enough network to put together something like this.

We are not saying that is what happened, but we are saying that those are really good clues as to what has happened.

PHILLIPS: And, Aaron, there's been, you know talk now about a number of civilians that have been killed in this explosion. And as you know, the recent attacks on civilians in the past week, the Europeans that were traveling, killed by a drive-by shooting, the missionaries that were killed in a drive-by shooting. And now we're being told civilians were killed in this explosion, actual families living in homes, you know, around this hotel.

So the pattern seems to be -- or the pattern of killing is sort of making a drastic shift.

BROWN: Well, Kyra, I would honestly say a little bit yes and a little bit no to that. I believe, based on my reporting over the last several days, that the attacks on small groups of civilians, the missionaries, the NGOs, is probably separate from this sort of attack.

This is attack is much more the fingerprint of what we saw a little bit more than a week ago now in the Muslim holiday of Ashura, the car bombing that went off in the Shi'ite community to the south.

And again, just for viewers who are just coming in, it is the belief of American intelligence that the al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists who are working in the area believe they have to pull off these big terrorist attacks. Not what the military refers to as the onesies and twosies, but the big one to try to create enough chaos in the lead to civil war before turnover of sovereignty on June 30.

That's is just a couple of months away. So it has been the view the of the American military and their intelligence people that we were going to see these sorts of big incidents carried out by people not of the former regime but more al Qaeda-like terrorist groups.

This is speculation, this is the kind of fingerprints we saw in the Karbala bombing of a week or ten days ago. Not the kind of incident we saw with the Baptist ministers and German NGOs yesterday.

PHILLIPS: Aaron, you sat down with General John Abizaid, had a one on one. We're going to play a clip with that and talk more about that. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, CENTCOM COMMANDER: Over the next 30 days, what makes me the most nervous is what I think is going to be a clear increase in violence by those that want to derail this process.

And I think that because they know they're running out of time every day that Iraqi security institutions get stronger is a day they'll have less and less of an opportunity to gain or to derail the process.

And so it makes me nervous that we're moving into a very intense, political period.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Aaron, very interesting. the general pretty much predicted what happened today.

BROWN: And this -- believe me, this prescience of a sort. I mean this is exactly what they had been worried about. They know -- the general is -- can be remarkably candid. He knows that as many Americans, American troops that are in there, as many new, young Iraqi police recruits that are in the city the size of Baghdad, or any city, for goodness sakes, there is a limit to what can be done.

After all, you're talking in this case what seems like a car or a truck, one vehicle in a city of 5.5 million people, that they could move in front of a hotel. It could have been a suicide bombing. It could have been detonated by cell phone or whatever. But there is a limit to the kinds of security that they can provide. And if the bad guys, which are group of bad guys who is responsible for this, has the wherewithal, has the explosives, and clearly they do, and has the sophistication to mount this sort of attack, and it doesn't take a whole lot of sophistication to do it, then they're going to be able to do it.

And for the reasons the general stated he truly believes that if they don't derail the process by the 30th of June, they will not be able to derail the process at all.

PHILLIPS: Aaron Brown, traveling in Islamabad, Pakistan, just recently in Iraq sitting with General John Abizaid, head of U.S. Central Command. Also spending time with the Secretary of State Colin Powell. Aaron, thank you for your perspective -- Miles.


________________________________________________________________

PAULA ZAHN NOW
Bomb Attack Devastates Baghdad Hotel; Vice President Cheney on the Attack
Aired March 17, 2004 - 20:00 � ET

(Approximately 8:50 pm ET)   --- Georgette

COLLINS: The devastating explosion in Baghdad, we'll continue to update today's top story live from Baghdad and get a report from "NEWSNIGHT"'s Aaron Brown, who is in the region.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: And more now on today's devastating bombing in Baghdad. U.S. officials say a car bomb with 1,000 pounds of explosives detonated outside a hotel. At least 29 people are dead.

Joining us on the phone now from Islamabad, Pakistan, is "NEWSNIGHT's" Aaron Brown, who was just in Iraq. Good evening to you, Aaron.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, Heidi.

COLLINS: Tell us a little bit about what you know and what you have seen as you travel throughout the region now?

BROWN: Well, I think the most important thing that viewers need to consider right now is that, as horrible as the events as Baghdad today have been, they are not surprising. They are almost precisely what the U.S. military is anticipating will happen in the next two- and-a-half months, an increase in violence, No. 1.

No. 2, while the U.S. military has done a very good job, to our eye, of force protection, protecting those areas where soldiers live, soldiers sleep, where the CPA works, those areas are hard targets and tough to get to and very secure. Baghdad is a city of 5.5 million people. There are thousands, thousands of soft targets, hotels like the one that was hit today. And those are, military officials will tell you, virtually impossible, that you can't protect them all. And maybe there are 10 bombers out there and one gets through, and you end up, as the Israelis have found out time and time again, with incident like today.

COLLINS: I know you had a chance to speak with General Abizaid a little bit about this. Tell us about that conversation, Aaron, and what really stood out to you.

BROWN: Well, it's hard to encapsulate a half hour into a sentence or two, but you know, the general was, it would seem, prescient. I mean, I would suspect that in Qatar, where I think he is tonight, he's saying, You shouldn't be surprised. This is exactly what we talked about in the interview.

I think, further, he would remind us that we need to take a step back a little bit. These events, these tragedies -- and they are -- are happening for a reason. They are happening to create in Iraqi society chaos and fear. They are -- the ultimate goal is to drive the Americans out, to install some form of government other than what the Americans have in mind, and by instilling fear in Iraqis, instilling a lack of confidence in the Americans in the Iraqis, the opponents of the occupation succeed. They gain ground. They may not win, but today they gained ground.

And in fact, it's been a very bad week there. There was the incidents the other days, yesterday, I guess, where the four missionaries were killed and the two NGOs were killed. Half a dozen or more American soldiers have been killed since we've been in the region. So it has been a tough week there, and there are, the general will tell you, going to be many more tough weeks ahead.

COLLINS: All right. Aaron Brown, thank so much for joining us tonight. No doubt, some words to be thinking about, that is for sure, after speaking with General John Abizaid. Thanks so much, Aaron.
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