As we are now reaching the world oil production peak, global world refining capacity is largely exceeding the need and additionnal large oil refineries, in the near future, will not be justified by a world technical need but by local considerations, political or others. Most important ultimate oil reserves are located in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Kuweit..) As a result, the largest and most important oil products export refineries for the near future will still be Middle East's ones (Yambu, ..)
More important than the Middle East's part in total oil reserves is the Middle East's participation in the future world oil export part: it is quickly increasing and already above 50% , with resulting consequences :
· Future crude barrel cost will more and more depend on Middle East's export answer to world import demand.
· Major refined oil products quantities exported from large Middle East's refineries are more or less fixing the prices of the internationnal spot market. As the major crudes are refined at crude production site there is no depreciation at all and the obtained products represent the content of the barrel of crude : for the client, the barrel's value is preserved, just the packing, the presentation is different.
The future gap between oil products increasing demand and crude production decreasing offer will enlarge very quickly and result in a fast development of small maginal oil fields (old abandonned ones or new ones, not considered feasible up to now).
Such small oil fields are often located in land locked areas with difficult transport problems. Same land locked areas with same difficult transport problems are usually consuming areas.
· Landlocked exported crude barrel's value is the international reference crude barrel's value less the important transport cost to a reference delivering harbour.
· Landlocked imported products cost is the international reference products value plus the important transport cost from a reference supplying harbour.
Based on detailed attachments, following assumptions are the basic tools available to everyone to start the preliminary feasibility study of his own economical environment:
· Landlocked small oil fields crudes have not a guaranted quality on long term.
· Any refining project based on such crude should have a short pay-out period, such as for instance, 2 to 5 years instead of 15 years as common for grass-roots refineries.
· Small refining capacities suggested for local oil products supply could be considered in the range from 1000 Bpsd ( 50000 T/Y) to 20000 Bpsd ( 1 million T/Y).
· Landlocked area imported oil products additionnal transport cost =
T # US$ 7 / Bbl
assumed:
T = 4 US$ / Bbl (pipeline) + 3 US$ / Bbl (small tanker, 1500 km)
· Landlocked area exported crude oil additionnal transport cost =
T # US$ 7 / Bbl
assumed:
T = 4 US$ / Bbl (pipeline) + 3 US$ / Bbl (small tanker, 1500 km)
Find Your Case:
