Response to Guide Questions for Bill Joy’s, The Future Doesn’t Need Us
1. What significance does Bill Joy give to John Searl’s argument against the possibility of artificial intelligence?
Searle stated that he believed that conscious robots were never to be created. Bill Joy was astounded that something like intelligent robots was a possibility from a trusted and well-respected source. Joy thought that both sides were plausible and created an uneasy feeling inside him that something that for so long was thought to be fiction now had the potential to exist.
2. Describe the “distopian scenario” that Bill Joy recounts in this article.
The dystopia theory that Joy discusses is when society becomes so dependant on the existence of a robot in order to make all decisions that the machines will obtain all power to make decisions without human oversight. On the other hand, it is also possible for an elite group to maintain a level of control over the machines allowing the elite to also control human existence.
3. Do you accept that such a scenario is possible? Support your position.
I am a computer science major and I believe that this scenario will not exist in our lifetime. I am not definite in my feelings of this subject but I think that we have come so far in our lifetime alone that technology is very dominate in our society. If it is possible to create a super intelligent robot, I feel that there will always be the elite few that will have a great deal of control over societal issues. How people live there lives will be very much dependant on these programmers. It is kind of like the saying “which came first the chicken or the egg” because in order to have these super intelligent machines you need a programmer, but if they are suppose to succeed human intelligence then which one would prevail? I am not honestly sure.
4. Describe Joy’s image of the technological environment of the 21st century. Do you find this a credible prediction?
Joy describes how the 21st century includes technology of the 20th century such as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons of mass destruction that could only be used once and are of material and information not easily accessible. Also, the technology of the 21st century which includes genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics which are so powerful that they can be accessed by smaller individuals and groups, and do not require raw materials and impossible information. Together we have not only weapons of mass destruction but also the knowledge enabling mass destruction amplified by the power of self-replication.
5. What are some of the technical changes that will have to emerge, according to Bill Joy, that will radically change, (increase), the “intellectual potential” of the computer?
It is necessary for an intelligent robot to be built and then for this robot to be able to make intelligent copies of it. Then we will download human consciousnesses to it replacing ourselves with human technology.
6. Describe some of the terroristic potential of vastly increased computing power, according to Bill Joy.
Nanotechnology can be used for destructive uses by the military and terrorist. Devices can be built to selectively destruct, affecting only a certain geographical area or group. We also run the risk of destroying the biosphere in which all life depends.
7. How does Joy express some of his hopes for the future? What are some of the cautions that he suggests have to be in place in order to sustain such a hope?
I think Joy expresses a genuine concern for our future and the fact that most of the technology that is improving is giving us less and less control, making it almost a free-living virus that is infecting everyone and hard to stop. Although right now he does not believe we are far enough down this path to slow down or experiment with development, but that point is in sight. There are many tell-tale signs that show rapid increases in technological discoveries that show the world of intelligent robots is not far away. However, his basis for hope is strong and determined. His example of weapons used over the last century, Joy believes anything could happen. Relinquishing these weapons was done under the realization that one day they may fall into the wrong hands, which is what I think he believes about the intelligent robots and the idea that one day we may live in a science fiction novel.
8. Assess Bill Joy’s overall vision of the future—what is possible and what is probable. What do you believe are the most important technological considerations in our local, national, and global approach to the future?
I think Bill Joy’s vision of the future is a conservative one. I believe that he sees the new technologies of the 21st century as a threat but he does not think that eventually technology will take over the world. I think he respects the possibility of people’s ideas and thoughts, but he does not completely agree that it will definitely happen. So many things would have to be gone through in order for something like this to happen in the future.
I believe we need to consider our role in the global community and what kind of impact we have on other nations. Also, how do we want to preserve America and ensure that democracy is still our government? I think that awareness of what is going on is important for all involved, meaning that keeping this secret from people will not help a democratic decision be made on the issue. I think people should be informed of these issues that are plaguing our information super highway.