By Jason Meade
MA in International Political Economy
3,263 words
Before this question can be answered, it must be defined. First
of all, there are always theoretical alternatives to any situation. So,
I will limit the question to alternatives currently in existence at or
around the end of the Second World War which could reasonably have been
expected to rival the system being shaped by the U.S. Secondly, I will
limit the question primarily to the economic aspects of the international
system. Finally, we must determine when the period of “after the Second
World War” came to an end. This must necessarily be somewhat arbitrary.
I have chosen to limit the bulk of my research to the period of 1945-1953.
The subsequent passage of time renders it difficult to disentangle the
threads of the immediate post-war period from those that came afterwards.
In addition, the broad outlines of the global system were more or less
set in place by this point, so it seems to be a convenient vantage
point from which to survey the question at hand.
It is my contention that there were several credible alternatives
to the system being put forward by the U.S. By this I mean that each of
these other systems had a real possibility of substituting for the U.S.
Capitalist/Liberal Democratic version of international organization. These
alternate systems are Communism, Democratic Socialism, and what I will
refer to as Authoritarian Nationalism. I take Authoritarian Nationalism
to be essentially the post-war successor to the ideas of fascism. In my
opinion the international system that actually arose after the Second World
War was a product of the interaction of all of the above mentioned systems,
rather than the creation of a particular actor. In short, there were alternatives
to an international system shaped largely by the position of strength of
the United States, and in fact the international system was not shaped
largely by the U.S.
In the following sections I will outline the historical
background to the period 1945-1953. I will outline the prevailing economic
trends, and go on to look at the chances of each system for gaining a pre-eminent
position in terms of global influence. In this section I will look particularly
at the question of whether the U.S. had the ability to shape the international
system to its own ends. Finally, I will conclude that the current pre-eminence
of the United States in world affairs is a very recent phenomenon, and
that the extension of U.S. global hegemony in the areas of cultural, military,
economic, and political affairs backwards into the immediate post-WWII
period is unwarranted. It is always easy to find indications that a process
was inevitable after it has already come to pass. However, based on my
research, I believe that the current triumph of American ideology was anything
but inevitable after the Second World War.
II. History
A. “To 1945”
The immediate post-WWII period was the result of a confluence
of preceding currents in world affairs. The earliest of these currents
was the rise of the United States as a world power. This was paralleled
by the rise of Germany. At about the same time, the United Kingdom began
its long decline from its position as the predominant power in the world
system. Meanwhile, another current was running on an intersecting course.
This was the series of events set in motion by the Russo-Japanese War of
1904. This war set the stage for the Japanese imperial expansion that would
only be checked by American power 41 years later. It also laid the groundwork
for the fall of Imperial Russia, and the rise of the Soviet Union.
This period saw the rise of war time planning across much of
the developed world, and the institution of central government planning
as a permanent feature of the government of the USSR. This era also saw
a decline in the free trade ideals that had been championed by the UK during
its period of ascendancy. All of which led to a weakening of the faith
in the free enterprise system. People began to see the enormous economic
improvements that could be had from so-called “rationalization” of economic
activity under the competent eye of government planners.
The appeal of government control over the economy grew even
more with the onset of the Great Depression. The failure of the free market
system was plain to see on the streets of every city in the developed world.
The experiences of the Great Depression led to a growth in economic nationalism,
as well as a revival and expansion of government economic planning. The
apparent successes in the USSR, Germany, and Japan under state-led planning
also contributed powerfully to the idea that the Capitalist/Liberal Democratic
model of international organization had outlived its usefulness. By the
end of the Second World War, Germany and Japan had been defeated, but it
was not at all obvious that this was as a result of problems with the politico-economic
systems they had built. The USSR, following similar principles, had emerged
from the war as a military superpower. Even in Germany, Japan, and Italy
there had been enormous gains before the outbreak of the general world
war. There was a case to be made for poor leadership rather than poor institutions.
B. “1945-1953”
Politically, the period of 1945-53 saw a divergence between
the U.S. and the USSR. At the same time, many other states were being pressured
to fall into line with one champion or the other. However, this was a result
of the weakness of these states, rather than a genuine desire to stand
in the shadow of the two superpowers. In fact, these other states were
already in the process of marking out independent agendas in all areas
that did not deal directly with the U.S./ Soviet split. Yugoslavia in the
Soviet sphere, and France in the U.S. sphere are early examples of this
trend.
Militarily this time was marked by early advances
on the Communist side as they consolidated the occupation of Eastern Europe
and North Korea. The Soviets were also engaged in supporting communist
movements outside their sphere of influence. On the other hand, the U.S.
was busy with demobilizing its forces and preparing to return to a normal,
peacetime level of preparedness. Furthermore, America’s allies in Europe
and Japan were already “involuntarily demobilized” as a result of the devastation
of the recent war. The trend towards decreasing militarism in the American
sphere was only reversed with the outbreak of the Korean War. But, even
the Armistice showed only a determination to hold the line against Communist
expansion.
The whole span of time from the end of the Second World
War to the end of the Korean War was marked by dissension between
the U.S. and it’s allies over the appropriate structure of the proposed
Western system. But, the predominant world influence was that of aggressive
Communist expansion. Major episodes in this expansion included the rise
of the Iron Curtain, the Berlin Blockade, and of course the Korean War.
The main U.S. response to this aggression was to try to shore up its allies,
and to put into practice the recommendations of the so-called “containment
policy.” This policy essentially called for a holding action against Communism
until the inherent weaknesses of the system led to its collapse.
III. Analysis
Finally, we come to the economic trends of the time. The
U.S. was undeniably the single wealthiest, most economically secure nation
on Earth. Many influential people argued that the American blend of laissez
faire capitalism and democracy had been the main factor behind this happy
situation. And if it worked for America, they argued, it ought to work
for the rest of the world as well. This was the idea which underlay U.S.
efforts to remake the international economic system. But the trend in the
U.S. public (as distinct from elite) opinion was towards ever greater government
intervention in the economic life of the nation. Americans were actually
in favor of more government control in the area of food conservation that
went to help the Europeans. Newspaper articles of the time are littered
with appeals for America to turn off of the road to government planning,
and assurances that the American economic system can “still be preserved.”
Clearly, the U.S. establishment felt that it had to consolidate domestic
public opinion behind the ideas of laissez faire capitalism and free enterprise.
These internal problems hardly contribute to the image of the U.S. as dictating
the form of the international system from a position of strength. The American
elite could not even convince the population of the richest, most powerful
country in the world that it should support the prevailing economic system.
How much more difficult would it be to convince outsiders then?
Quite difficult, as it turned out. In the Democratic Socialist
heartland of Western Europe economic conditions were not good. It would
not be unreasonable to characterize most Western European countries as
wards of the U.S. during this period. A New York Times article entitled
“Western Europe Nears Normality” written ten years after the outbreak of
World War Two proudly reported the great progress being made. The average
Frenchman was reported to be dressing “almost as well” as he did in 1939,
and eating “almost as well.” Britain was looking up too. Only meat, fish,
butter, cheese, canned fish, sugar, soap, and tea were still being rationed.
Unfortunately, some other countries were not doing as well.
In spite of their material destitution, the Europeans
were determined to follow their own economic path. What they lacked in
physical capabilities they made up for in the intellectual realm. Under
the leadership of thinkers like Keynes, the Europeans marked out a very
different conception of the ideal international economic system from the
one being proposed by the U.S. They proposed to create a comprehensive
social safety net, and protect their citizens from the shocks of world
trade. Although the Western Europeans were nominally allied with the U.S.
against the Soviet-led Communist system, they did not support the central
tenet of the American system. Keynes himself wrote that capitalism “in
itself is in many ways extremely objectionable”, and also that capitalism
was “spiritually and morally bankrupt.”
In contrast to the U.S., the USSR was in the position of having
to try to convince its citizens and allies that central control and government
planning were good things. But this was not as pressing a problem since
the Soviet government was not bound by the same rules against violence
and elimination of opposing opinions that existed in the Capitalist and
Democratic Socialist camps. The Authoritarian Nationalists had the same
advantages, and countries such as Spain and Taiwan were much freer to follow
whatever economic policies seemed to be most appropriate in a given set
of circumstances.
So, given the state of the world in the immediate post-war
period, what were the chances of any of these rival systems gaining a pre-dominant
global influence? I will look at each of the systems in turn and
try to gauge its potential for gaining a world-wide following. Firstly,
there is the Capitalist system. This system was strongest in the United
States. America, being the wealthiest and most powerful nation in the international
system could have used its power to dominate the global system. But there
were several obstacles to U.S. pre-eminence. The most important of these
was that no one really wanted a world dominated by U.S.-style capitalism.
Even many people within the United States thought this was a bad idea.
Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. elite was distracted by the need to keep
domestic opposition to a minimum. This was accomplished through a combination
of pro-free enterprise propaganda and persecution of dissenters from the
official line. The most famous example of persecution was the House Un-American
Activities Committee, but other methods of discrimination were used as
well. Meanwhile, America’s allies were also stubbornly resistant to the
demands of the Capitalist system. As was mentioned above, Capitalism was
almost a discredited concept in Western Europe. Finally, there was the
problem of U.S. isolationism. America was historically disinclined to take
a leading role in world affairs, and this disinclination was only accentuated
by the opposition of most foreign nations. Only a concerted propaganda
effort in favor of U.S engagement in the global system was able to convince
American’s of the need to take a leadership role in world affairs. So,
the chances for the triumph of the U.S. position did not seem very good.
Secondly, there is the Communist system. This system was
strongest in the Soviet Union. While the USSR was economically less powerful
than the U.S., it was still a superpower. More than that, the USSR was
a superpower on the rise. Russia had gone from defeat at the hands of the
Japanese in 1904 to rival for the title of world’s most powerful nation
in only 41 years. Furthermore, the Soviets were ideologically committed
to extending the reach of their economic system to the whole world. In
terms of competition with other systems, the Communists were in an advantageous
position. They were boosted by the prestige of being led by a world power
that had risen from the ranks of poor and weak countries. Like the
Capitalists, they could claim that their system would make the world stronger
and wealthier. But unlike the Capitalists, they added an explicit appeal
to the brotherhood of man. The idea of “from each according to his capacity,
to each according to his needs” was central to the ideology of the Communist
economic system, if not to the actual practice. This had a tremendous appeal
to disadvantaged people around the world. Finally, the Communist system
had the advantage of missionary zeal. While the defenders of Capitalism
were fighting what appeared to be a rearguard action against government
encroachment, the Communists appeared to be the vigorous, progressive proponents
of a system that would do away with the evils of the old Capitalist world.
Finally, the much greater oppression within the Communist countries was
less well-known than the oppression going on under the House Un-American
Activities Committee, for example. Overall, the Communists appeared better
placed to gain a position of pre-dominant world influence during the post-war
period.
Thirdly, there is Democratic Socialism. This system was
strongest in Western Europe. Despite the fact that Western Europe was very
weak at this time, it did have many of the world’s most persuasive thinkers
and polemicists. It also exerted a disproportionate influence on world
opinion through the medium of its extensive colonial networks and contacts
with other influential world powers, such as the United States. The Democratic
Socialist system had the attraction of claiming to work for the common
benefit in a manner similar to that of the Communists. The system also
claimed to protect people from economic shocks of different kinds. But
in some ways it actually went the Communists one better. The system had
some specifically economic similarities with the Communist system, but
it could claim to avoid the worst excesses of Communism since it retained
the civil rights and democratic procedures which the Communists had repudiated.
Therefore, the Democratic Socialist system could take advantage of the
popularity of the Communist economic ideas without bowing to the political
demands of orthodox Communism.
Finally, there is the system of Authoritarian Nationalism.
This system was strongest in the former colonial countries, particularly
in Latin America and Asia. It had no fixed set of economic dictates per
se, but, like its fascist predecessors, it sought to raise up countries
from the inside without any over-reliance on foreign powers. This was an
attractive attribute in the colonies and former colonial areas, which made
up the largest part of the Earth’s surface and population. These areas
were naturally suspicious of powerful states such as the U.S. and USSR,
and if anything were more suspicious of their former colonial masters.
So any system that could claim to put these countries on an equal footing
with their more powerful neighbors, without simultaneously binding them
to those neighbors, was bound to have an appeal.
Given these circumstances, the chances of eventual U.S.-led
Capitalist domination seemed very slim indeed. Although the Communist system
was economically weaker than the Capitalist system, this was no guarantee
that it would fall of its own accord. Even with the containment policy
in place, the system held on for almost another half century. People had
been waiting for the Soviet Union to fall since 1917, and instead it had
grown stronger and stronger. The Democratic Socialist system also seemed
to be a strong challenger to the Capitalist system. It had a wider appeal,
and many intelligent arguments to support its tenets. Even the Authoritarian
Nationalist system could hope to rival the Capitalist system, if only because
its potential adherents were so numerous. In short, the chances of U.S.-triumph
were not good. And in fact, they would not be good for many years to come.
Looking ahead from 1953 the system advocated by the U.S.
would face many more challenges. The Communists would continue pushing
at the boundaries of their system for almost 30 more years. The U.S. system
was still to face the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Vietnam War among other
challenges. The U.S. also had to face down the challenges of its allies.
The Democratic Socialist economies were destined to grow in strength to
the point where they could challenge the Capitalist economies. Authoritarian
Nationalism turned out to be much less of a threat. As it turned out, the
“poor leadership” characteristic of the World War Two era Nationalist regimes
was actually characteristic of the system in general, and this system gradually
fell into disrepute as more and more promises went unfulfilled.
IV. Conclusions
The U.S.-led Capitalist system was on the defensive in 1945.
It was on the defensive in 1953. The Capitalist system was on the defensive
against either Communist or Democratic Socialist challenges all the way
up to the 1980’s. The triumph of the U.S. and U.S. economic ideals in the
1990’s and 2000’s, are a product of the collapse of any plausible alternate
systems. With the loss of the Soviet Union as a champion of Communist economic
goals, and the abandonment of costly social entitlements in the Democratic
Socialist sphere, the system favored by the United States has triumphed
by default. This outcome was not inevitable. There was a good chance that
the U.S. itself would have gone down the road to state planning and central
control. Many American’s actually favored this path over the one that was
chosen. And, without American backing, the Capitalist system might have
faded into history. There was also the possibility that the Communist and
Democratic Socialist systems could have joined forces to “contain” the
U.S. There were strong Communist movements within Western Europe, and the
two economic systems were at least partly compatible.
So, the U.S. was constrained from exerting an overwhelming
influence on the international economic system because there were several
potential rivals to its leadership. The U.S. was also constrained by domestic
ambivalence towards the ideals espoused by the elite. It has only triumphed
with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of its major rivals. The
statement: “After the Cold War, there was no alternative to an international
system shaped largely by the position of strength of the United States”
is probably correct. But in the case of the Second War it is undoubtedly
not correct.
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