| Since Spades is a card game it deals with numbers and probability. It is a common misconception to think of Spades as purely statistical. It is true that you must learn to determine probabilities while bidding and playing to achieve the highest skill level. However, if these were the only skills employed your game play would be one-dimensional, much like a bot. Knowing statistics and probability is simply just one of many skills that you need to develop. So, there really are no cut and dry answers to these questions. The truth is that you will play Spades regularly for fifty years and never encounter the exact same hand twice. Even if, in a rare circumstance, the same four people were seated around the same table and were dealt the same exact hand within those fifty years, it would still be very unlikely that it would be played exactly the same. I have a friend who is an engineer and a math genius. I mean this guy speaks in a language few can understand. I posed him the question, �What are the odds that 4 people playing a card game, where 13 cards are dealt to every player from a deck of 52 cards, that all 4 players will get the same hand twice.� In other words, let�s assume you had a deal where each player received all the cards of a suit. Player 1 has all spades, player 2 has all diamonds, etc. As unusual as this deal may sound, it is just as possible as any other hand. So, after some intense ciphering that would have made Jethro jealous, he came up with these numbers. If any one has other thoughts or formulas or figures that disagree with these, I�d love to see them and will compare to these. He said that the odds are 3.7 x 1069 of ever getting 4 hands to duplicate themselves just one time. Now, if you understand this number you can see how staggering the odds are. For those who don�t understand scientific notation, I will explain. Starting with 3.7, move the decimal place to the right 69 times. I don�t know what number that is, but this is what it looks like� 3,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000�. Or something like that. Now, there would be numbers for each of these zeros, but my calculator rounded off at 3.7, it doesn�t have quite that many display digits. But I bought my scientific calculator when I was in high school, so I guess I need a new one. My point is simply that it is possible to learn �too much� from playing previous hands. You can have what appears to be the same situation twice within a game and end up with entirely different results. For instance, if you bid nil and have the opening lead, it is possible to set your nil with an opening lead of a 3. It is also possible to make your nil by an opening lead of an Ace. What you have to do is determine if the risk involved is justified for the game situation, which score plays a very large part in that determination. If you are playing the last hand, and you are bidding last, and are down by 300 points, and there is only a total bid of 5, and your partner bid 1, it is impossible for you to win the game by any other means than a blind (or double) nil bid. What are the odds that you will make it? Whatever those odds are, they are still better than a 100% chance of losing. I have tried to do a break down of all the factors that are included in what it takes to win a game of spades. Then, I wanted to try to assign a rank of importance or percentage to each. I have seen others attempts at doing this and it�s surprising how different each list is. But, one common factor is always at the top of the list, and it�s the one that has absolutely nothing to do with skill, and that is the deal and distribution of the cards. If you knew a way to get the best hand every time, you would win nearly all of your games. Having the best hands throughout the game is not enough to guarantee victory. But, it is the single largest factor in determining the outcome. The bottom line is that to be successful you have to play the averages. If you get set on a nil bid with a singleton 6 on one hand, does that mean you should never do it again? Certainly not. There is no easy road. It takes practice and experience. It takes watching the card play and seeing the �mood� of the hand as it progresses. Knowing your partner and developing wordless table talk with the cards can be the difference between winning and losing. But, there are going to be hands where all four players can lay their cards face up on the table after bidding, and you will still go set. Play the averages, don�t over bid, use a few regular partners, learn to count key cards, and employ some of the common card talking philosophies out there, and you will win more often. But, unlike chess or checkers, the �playing field� is uneven before the game even begins� which is the point of discussion this month. I want to discuss mind set and dealing with the uneven playing field in this first column. You must understand that dealing is random. The cards may not seem to go your way the entire game. The consolation is that maybe the next game they will. Someone has to win, and someone has to lose. Let�s remember that it�s just a game (wait, did I say that?). Let�s see just how important these good hands are. Let�s look at a possible scenario. You bid first and you struggle with whether or not to bid nil. You see nothing worth bidding in your hand except in diamonds. The closer you look at that 6, J, K the more you think, �If my partner just has the Ace and Queen��, even realizing that the odds are not in your favor. You decide to do the right thing and bid 1. As frustrating as the almighty one bid is, it�s the right thing to do, especially bidding first. Now you resist the urge to type �pft� figures,� in the message area when the west opp bids 5. Your disgust heightens to a whole new level when you see a 1 appear for your pard�s bid. You start looking for your macro that says �shoot the dealer� or �hang the dealer�. But, you decide you don�t want to come across as a poor sport, so you just grit and bear it. That didn�t last very long though, just until your east opp punches in a 4 bid. There goes the macro. �lol, lol, lol,� are the replies coming in� knowing that your pard really doesn�t think it�s that funny, you sneer at your opps. The stage is set. All goes as normal in hand one and you are now down 91 to 21. Really, 70 points is not worth the aggravation and disgust. As hand 2 pops up, your west opp bids 1, your pard bids 5, east opp bids 1, and you don�t feel comfortable with 5 so you bid 4. �What comes around goes around.� �What�s good for the goose is good for the gander.� There are a million sayings you could be thinking right now. Now you think you have the good hand and all is well. I�m going to tell you here that the highest bid doesn�t always win the hand, or the game. I�ll prove it to you. Your west opp grabs 3, one with an Ace, one with a Queen, and one by a ruff. Your east opp grabs the Ace and King of clubs in a long suit. You pull your 4, so that leaves your pard one short. Now, here�s where you do the math. You started the hand 70 points behind with an inferior hand. Now, with a superior hand, you�re down 183 points. Don�t be fooled by the bidding, the game is not won by the largest number. You must make your bid for the bid to matter. So, look for a positive in a negative situation. If you have a bad hand, the best you can do is punt on that hand and just try to not fall too far behind. Wait for the averages to catch up. Even with the bidding going overwhelmingly to the opps, you can still have say in what happens. The name of the game is patience. Adopt that principle and you will make fewer mistakes. What you need to do is �learn� as the hand progresses. Try to discover as much as you can about the hands of the other 3 players. There are card signals and techniques you can use to let the cards tell your partner what is in your hand, and vice versa. Determining the cards that are in your opponent�s hands is the hard part. But, at the same time, that is the very key to winning at Spades more often. Once you learn to count key cards properly and get a �feel� for what cards are in which hand, you will know which card you can safely play to get the result you want. Future columns will deal with some of the specific topics already mentioned plus others including: bidding the long spades suit, what to lead, going set versus bagging, covering a nil, setting a nil, how to do the math on the last bid of the last hand, and many others. We will also feature interviews with other prominent players on the zone. Keep playing, and keep the courtesy flowing. |
| Spades: Elucidated |
| August 2001 |
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| How To Begin / Overall Strategies |
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