שלום רב,
להלן לקט
מס' 59 (מצבר כפול):
1.
]Florin] Referral of Iranian
President Ahmadinejad on the Charge of Incitement to
Commit Genocide, by Prof. Elie Wiesel and others.
2.
[Evental] The
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
incorporates the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies
(JCSS). A new INSS site is under construction, meanwhile read about the The
Global Reach of Iran’s Ballistic Missiles by Uzi Rubin, or the recommended
"Strategic
Assessment" (Hebrew
version).
3.
TRAC-Monterey provides a
full-time analytical capability to the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command
(TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC). Key TRAC-Monterey functions research areas are:
(1) high-level computer simulations concepts and advanced technologies for
modeling military operations focusing on system interoperability in distributed
environments; and (2) practical, real-world military operations research
problems of importance to the Army.
4.
גורדון כותב על משבר מנהיגות.
5.
[עודד] ל
o The Future
of Things (TFOT) is an online magazine dedicated to bringing original
content on science, technology, and medicine from around the world. TFOT aims
to provide comprehensive, accurate, and high quality coverage of emerging
scientific and technological innovations. TFOT's news
stories and articles are unique, not only because they include detailed
analysis and commentary, but because of the inclusion of in-depth interviews
with leading scientists, engineers, and other visionaries who describe their
work and offer us a glimpse into our future.
o Our
Philosophy: We believe in the importance of bringing science and technology to
the awareness of the general public. Good science and technology reporting is
an art, but one that requires precision and accuracy. This is exactly why we
decided to use "as is" interviews as one of our main journalistic
tools. Too often we come across misquoted or misinterpreted scientific and
technological information. By letting scientists and engineers describe their
work in their own words, we aim to bring a new level of accuracy to science and
tech reporting.
6.
מספר לינקים לאנשי
106:
o
האתר של פרופ' בל
מהאוניברסיטה במונטריי בנושא שרידות מטוסים.
o NPS
Stands Up New All-Platform Center for Survivability and Lethality - On Jan.
30, the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) announced the creation of the Center
for Survivability and Lethality. The new
research and education enterprise is the first interdisciplinary center
dedicated to making the broad range of U.S. and allied military, homeland
security and critical infrastructure platforms more survivable to attack and
more lethal to hostile platforms and systems.
o Aircraft
Survivability is published three times a year by the Joint Aircraft
Survivability Program Office (JASPO) chartered by the U.S. Army Aviation &
Missile Command, U.S. Air Force Aeronautical Systems Center and U.S. Navy Naval
Air Systems Command. In Summer
2006 issue read about MANPADS Analysis Methodology Development, Black Hawk
Pilot’s Perspective on Aircraft Survivability, Survivability of the Next Strike
Fighter, and more.
7.
מספר מאמרים לקוראים
מצטיינים:
o [Florin1]
U.S. sees alarming pattern in copter downings.
o [Florin2]
Officers with PhDs advising war effort.
o [Netser] Science panel calls global warming
"Unequivocal".
o [Evental1]
Bush's tough tactics are a declaration of war on Iran.
8.
[פישר] למי שפספס - סין ביצעה ניסוי בנשק נגד לוויינים: סין
שיגרה טיל בליסטי בגודל בינוני שפגע בלווין מטאורולוגי ישן מתוצרתה שחג בגובה של
כ-
9.
באתר השטחים הפתוחים בישראל קראו על פרויקט
שביל ישראל באופניים וגם
על דברים רבים אחרים ובהם מסמך מדיניות שהוגש לממשלה על עתיד אזור ים המלח (המפלס
יורד במטר לשנה באזור החופשי ההולך וקטן, ועולה בעשרים ס"מ לשנה בבריכות
האידוי ...), ומחקר של "חושבה" על תכנית אב לפסולת מוצקה
בישראל,
10.
SHVOONG - אתר לרצים, שוחים ורוכבים,
ובמסגרתו מסלולי טיול
נהדרים לאופני שטח של אלי סט.
להתראות בידידות, איתן
Homepage: http://www.geocities.com/israeli_eitan/
Officers With PhDs Advising War Effort
By Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 5, 2007; A01
Gen. David H. Petraeus, the new
U.S. commander in Iraq, is assembling a small band of warrior-intellectuals -- including
a quirky Australian anthropologist, a Princeton economist who is the son of a
former U.S. attorney general and a military expert on the Vietnam War sharply
critical of its top commanders -- in an eleventh-hour effort to reverse the
downward trend in the Iraq war.
Army officers tend to refer to the group as "Petraeus guys." They are smart colonels who have been
noticed by Petraeus, and who make up one of the most
selective clubs in the world: military officers with doctorates from top-flight
universities and combat experience in
Essentially, the Army is turning the war over to its
dissidents, who have criticized the way the service has operated there the past
three years, and is letting them try to wage the war their way.
"Their role is crucial if we are to reverse the effects
of four years of conventional mind-set fighting an unconventional war,"
said a Special Forces colonel who knows some of the officers.
But there is widespread skepticism that even this unusual
group, with its specialized knowledge of counterinsurgency methods, will be
able to win the battle of
"Petraeus's 'brain trust' is
an impressive bunch, but I think it's too late to salvage success in
Iraq," said a professor at a military war college, who said he thinks that
the general will still not have sufficient troops to implement a genuine
counterinsurgency strategy and that the United States really has no solution
for the sectarian violence tearing apart Iraq.
"It's too late to make a difference in
Expanded Role for
Academics
Having academic specialists advise
top commanders is not new. Gen. George W. Casey Jr., Petraeus's
predecessor, established a small panel of counterinsurgency experts, but it was
limited to an advisory role. Also, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno,
the No. 2 U.S. commander in
Still, the team being assembled by Petraeus
promises to be both larger and more influential than anything seen in the
"I cannot think of another case of so many highly
educated officers advising a general," said Carter Malkasian,
who has advised Marine Corps commanders in
As the U.S.-designed campaign to bring security to
Petraeus, who along with the group's members
declined to be interviewed for this article, has chosen as his chief adviser on
counterinsurgency operations an outspoken officer in the Australian Army. Lt.
Col. David Kilcullen holds a PhD in anthropology, for
which he studied Islamic extremism in
Kilcullen has served in
Veteran Strategists
The two most influential members of the brain trust are
likely to be Col. Peter R. Mansoor and Col. H.R.
McMaster, whose influence already outstrips their rank. Both men served on a
secret panel convened last fall by Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, to review
But to make that shift, the review also concluded, the
Mansoor, who commanded a brigade of the 1st
Armored Division in
McMaster's command of the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment in
northwestern
Beyond those senior officers is a larger ring of advisers
whose views already are shaping planning for the coming operation in
Lt. Col. Douglas A. Ollivant caught
Petraeus's eye last year by winning first prize in an
Army "counterinsurgency writing" competition, sponsored by the
general, with an essay that scorned the
Ollivant, a veteran of battles in Najaf and Fallujah who earned a
political science PhD studying Thomas Jefferson, argued that
Another adviser will be Ahmed S. Hashim,
a professor of strategy at the
A Different Arena
Many military insiders are skeptical that the extra
brainpower ultimately will make much difference, or that lessons learned by
McMaster in Tall Afar or Petraeus in
The joke among some staff officers was that Petraeus operated in such a freewheeling manner in
"It wouldn't surprise me if Congress pulled the rug out
or the Iraqis blocked major revisions in strategy," said Erin M. Simpson,
a
Kilcullen, the counterinsurgency adviser, wrote
recently on the Web site Small Wars Journal, "All that the new strategy
can do is give us a fighting chance of success, and it
certainly does give us that."
Science Panel Calls Global
Warming ‘Unequivocal’
By ELISABETH
ROSENTHAL and ANDREW
C. REVKIN, NYTimes
PARIS, Feb. 2 — In a
grim and powerful assessment of the future of the planet, the leading
international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time
that global
warming is “unequivocal” and that human activity is the main driver, “very
likely” causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950.
They said the world
was in for centuries of climbing temperatures, rising seas and shifting weather
patterns — unavoidable results of the buildup of heat-trapping gases in the
atmosphere.
But their report,
released here on Friday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said
warming and its harmful consequences could be substantially blunted by prompt
action.
While the report
provided scant new evidence of a climate apocalypse now, and while it expressly
avoided recommending courses of action, officials from the United
Nations agencies that created the panel in 1988 said it spoke of the urgent
need to limit looming and momentous risks.
“In our daily lives we
all respond urgently to dangers that are much less likely than climate change
to affect the future of our children,” said Achim
Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, which
administers the panel along with the World Meteorological Organization.
“Feb. 2 will be
remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had
anything to do with climate change on this planet,” he went on. “The evidence
is on the table.”
The report is the
panel’s fourth assessment since 1990 on the causes and consequences of climate
change, but it is the first in which the group asserts with near certainty —
more than 90 percent confidence — that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases from human activities have been the main causes of warming in the past
half century.
In its last report, in
2001, the panel, consisting of hundreds of scientists and reviewers, said the
confidence level for its projections was “likely,” or 66 to 90 percent. That
level has now been raised to “very likely,” better than 90 percent. Both
reports are online at www.ipcc.ch.
The Bush
administration, which until recently avoided directly accepting that humans
were warming the planet in potentially harmful ways, embraced the findings,
which had been approved by representatives from the
Administration
officials asserted Friday that the
At the same time, Secretary
of Energy Samuel Bodman rejected the idea of
unilateral limits on emissions. “We are a small contributor to the overall,
when you look at the rest of the world, so it’s really got to be a global
solution,” he said.
The
Democratic lawmakers
quickly fired off a round of news releases using the report to bolster a fresh
flock of proposed bills aimed at cutting emissions of greenhouse gases. Senator
James M. Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican who has called the idea of dangerous
human-driven warming a hoax, issued a news release headed “Corruption of
Science” that rejected the report as “a political document.”
The new report says
the global climate is likely to warm 3.5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit if carbon
dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reach twice the levels of 1750, before
the Industrial Revolution.
Many energy and
environment experts see such a doubling, or worse, as a foregone conclusion
after 2050 unless there is a prompt and sustained shift away from the
20th-century pattern of unfettered burning of coal and oil, the main sources of
carbon dioxide, and an aggressive expansion of nonpolluting sources of energy.
And the report says
there is a more than a 1-in-10 chance of much greater warming, a risk that many
experts say is far too high to ignore.
Even a level of
warming that falls in the middle of the group’s range of projections would be
likely to cause significant stress to ecosystems, according to many climate
experts and biologists. And it would alter longstanding climate patterns that
shape water supplies and agricultural production.
Moreover, the warming
has set in motion a rise in global sea levels, the report says. It forecasts a
rise of 7 to
John P. Holdren, an energy and climate expert at Harvard,
said the report “powerfully underscores the need for a massive effort to slow
the pace of global climatic disruption before intolerable consequences become
inevitable.”
“Since 2001, there has
been a torrent of new scientific evidence on the magnitude, human origins and
growing impacts of the climatic changes that are under way,” said Mr. Holdren, who is the president of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science. “In overwhelming proportions, this evidence has
been in the direction of showing faster change, more danger and greater
confidence about the dominant role of fossil-fuel burning and tropical
deforestation in causing the changes that are being observed.”
The conclusions came
after a three-year review of hundreds of studies of past climate shifts;
observations of retreating ice, warming and rising seas, and other changes
around the planet; and a greatly expanded suite of supercomputer simulations
used to test how the earth will respond to a growing blanket of gases that hold
heat in the atmosphere.
The section released
Friday was a 20-page summary for policymakers, which was approved early in the
morning by teams of officials from more than 100 countries after three days and
nights of wrangling over wording with the lead authors, all of whom are
scientists.
It described far-flung
ramifications for both humans and nature.
“It is very likely
that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to
become more frequent,” said the summary.
Generally, the
scientists said, more precipitation will fall at higher latitudes, which are
also likely to see lengthened growing seasons. Semi-arid subtropical regions,
already chronically plagued by drought, could have a further 20 percent drop in
rainfall under the panel’s midrange outlook for increases in the greenhouse
gases.
The summary added a
new chemical consequence of the buildup of carbon dioxide to the list of mainly
climatic and biological effects foreseen in its previous reports: a drop in the
pH of seawater as oceans absorb billions of tons of carbon dioxide, which forms
carbonic acid when partly dissolved. The ocean would stay alkaline, but marine
biologists have said that a change in the direction of acidity could imperil
some kinds of corals and plankton.
The report essentially
caps a half-century-long effort to discern whether humans, through the buildup
of carbon dioxide and other gases released mainly by burning fuels and forests,
could influence the earth’s climate system in potentially momentous ways.
The group operates
under the aegis of the United Nations and was chartered in 1988 — a year of
record heat, burning forests and the first big headlines about global warming —
to provide regular reviews of climate science to governments to inform policy
choices.
Government officials
are involved in shaping the summary of each report, but the scientist-authors,
who are unpaid, have the final say over the thousands of pages in four
underlying technical reports that will be completed and published later this
year.
Big questions remain
about the speed and extent of some impending changes, both because of
uncertainty about future population and pollution trends and the complex
interrelationships of the greenhouse emissions, clouds, dusty kinds of
pollution, the oceans and earth’s veneer of life, which both emits and soaks up
carbon dioxide and other such gases.
But a broad array of
scientists, including authors of the report and independent experts, said the
latest analysis was the most sobering view yet of a century of transition —
after thousands of years of relatively stable climate conditions — to a new
norm of continual change.
Should greenhouse
gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere at even a moderate pace, average
temperatures by the end of the century could match those last seen 125,000
years ago, in the previous warm spell between ice ages, the report said.
At that time, the
panel said, sea levels were 12 to
The panel said there
was no solid scientific understanding of how rapidly the vast stores of ice in polar regions will melt, so their estimates on new sea
levels were based mainly on how much the warmed oceans will expand, and not on
contributions from the melting of ice now on land.
Other scientists have
recently reported evidence that the glaciers and ice sheets in the
Michel Jarraud, the secretary general of the United Nations World
Meteorological Organization, said the lack of clarity should offer no one
comfort. “The speed with which melting ice sheets are raising sea levels is
uncertain, but the report makes clear that sea levels will rise inexorably over
the coming centuries,” he said. “It is a question of when and how much, and not
if.”
The warming and other
climate changes will be highly variable around the world, with the
The kinds of
vulnerabilities are very much dependent on where you are, Dr. Solomon said in a
telephone interview. “If you’re living in parts of the tropics and they’re
getting drier and you’re a farmer, there are some very acute issues associated
with even small changes in rainfall — changes we’re already seeing are
significant,” she said. “If you are an Inuit and you’re seeing your sea ice
retreating already, that’s affecting your life style and culture.”
The 20-page summary is
a sketch of the findings that are most germane to the public and world leaders.
The full report,
thousands of pages of technical background, will be released in four sections
through the year — the first on basic science, then sections on impacts and
options for limiting emissions and limiting inevitable harms, and finally a
synthesis of all of the findings near year’s end.
In a news conference
in
“I honestly believe
that it would be a much better service for me to keep my personal opinions
separate than what I can actually offer the world as a scientist,” she said.
“My stepson, who is 29, has an utterly different view of risks than I do.
People are going to have to make their own judgments.”
Some authors of the
report said that no one could honestly point to any remaining uncertainties as
justification for further delay.
“Policy makers paid us
to do good science, and now we have very high scientific confidence in this
work — this is real, this is real, this is real,” said Richard B. Alley, one of
the lead authors and a professor at Pennsylvania
State University. “So now act, the ball’s back in your court.”
Elisabeth Rosenthal
reported from Paris, and Andrew C. Revkin
from
By Richard A. Oppel
Jr. and James Glanz, Thursday, February 8, 2007,
Two new helicopter crashes near
Six American helicopters have crashed or been shot down in the past 19 days — including a Marine CH-46 Sea Knight transport on Wednesday, killing seven people — apparently the largest number of helicopters lost in such a short period since the invasion of Iraq.
The recent rash of crashes indicates insurgents have become smarter about anticipating American flight patterns and finding ways to use old weapons to down helicopters. Those aircraft, many of which were equipped with sophisticated antimissile technology, still can be vulnerable to more conventional weapons fired from the ground.
Details about the downed Sea Knight, which crashed into an open field in
an insurgent-heavy region northwest of
In addition to that, American officials discussed a previously unreported
crash on Jan.
Among the troops, helicopters are seen as far less dangerous than the ground convoys that are commonly subject to roadside bombs that can tear through thick vehicular armor.
Still, there have been four other fatal downings of American helicopters since mid-January that killed at least 20 people and that military officials have suggested were all caused by small- arms fire. In some cases, however, witnesses indicated that missiles had been fired from the ground.
American officials emphasize that a new sense of coordinated aggressiveness on the part of insurgents toward attacking aircraft, or even luck, may be playing as large a role in the high pace of crashes as improved skill and tactics among insurgent triggermen.
"I do not know whether or not it is the law of averages that caught up with us," said Marine General Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during Senate testimony on Tuesday. Another possibility, he said, was that there had "been a change in tactics, techniques and procedures on the part of the enemy."
A senior military official said Wednesday that, while the incidents were
still under investigation, the rash of helicopter downings appeared to be part of an insurgent strategy
to inflict heavier losses on American forces at the start of the new push on
the part of the Americans to secure
"There is certainly the expectation here that insurgents are trying to inflict some losses as we're building up forces as a means to try to discourage the Iraqis and us that this is a futile plan," the official said.
Several officials said it was unclear whether the attacks had succeeded because insurgents had adopted new tactics but that, judging only by the number of successful attacks, it appeared to be part of a coordinated effort.
The Sea Knight, the aircraft that crashed Wednesday, is a large transport helicopter that is easily distinguished by its twin rotors, one mounted near the cockpit and one mounted on a tall tail at the back. It can carry more than two dozen passengers and crew. The military said all seven people on board died but did not identify the victims.
Two American officials said the previously unreported downing of the private helicopter supporting State Department operations last week came after it was subjected to a hail of gunfire from the ground. One official described the gunfire as heavy-caliber and said that after the helicopter crash-landed a second aircraft set down and evacuated the stranded passengers and crew.
But the official said that as a quick reaction force rushed to the crash scene, the force was struck by at least one large roadside bomb and suffered several causalities. The force withdrew from the site, and American officials decided to destroy the aircraft rather than risk it falling into insurgent hands.
Before the two most recently reported crashes, there had been at least
57 American helicopters downed since May 2003, according to a tally by the
Brookings Institution. The highest total for any single month was five aircraft
lost in January 2004. The overall tally since 2003 showed that at least 172
American troops had died in helicopter crashes, or about 5.5 percent of the
total
Reporting was contributed by David Cloud in Washington, Ali Adeeb and Qais Mizher in
A military judge on Wednesday declared a mistrial in the court-martial
of the Army officer who called the war in
Lieutenant Colonel John Head, the military judge presiding over the case, declared the mistrial after he rejected an agreement Watada had reached with prosecutors before the trial began on Monday. Under the pretrial deal, Watada acknowledged refusing to deploy and speaking out against the war. In turn, prosecutors dropped two charges related to comments Watada made in interviews.
Bush's
Tough Tactics Are a Declaration of War on
By Anne Penketh,
The Independent
American
forces stormed Iranian government offices in northern
The soldiers
detained six people, including diplomats, according to the Iranians, and seized
documents and computers in the pre-dawn raid which was condemned by
"The
risk is a wider war. Because of the underlying tensions, we are transferring
from a 'cold war' into a 'hot war'," he said.
In his
speech, the President accused
Dr Ansari argued that the Bush administration had decided to
confront
"Moderate"
Sunni Arab states who feel threatened by the rise of Shia
Until now,
the Bush administration had been content to deal with the perceived Iranian
threat diplomatically. The United Nations adopted sanctions against
President
Bush appointed Admiral William Fallon to replace General John Abizaid as head of Central Command for
The US
Treasury named
But if the
In
In
Ms Rice
followed up President Bush's tough words on
Iran's
Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mohammad Ali Hosseini,
protested against the raid by US forces in Arbil,
saying on Iranian state-run radio that it targeted a "diplomatic
mission" since the "presence of Iranian staffers in Irbil was legal".
Ironically,
15 פברואר, 2007
ד"ר
שמואל גורדון
מבט אישי 204: משבר מנהיגות
אין מענה ואין הסבר למשבר המנהיגות.
אולי אפילו כבר מאוחר, אך חובה להתריע בשער. משבר המנהיגות ברוב אורחות חיינו,
מסוכן יותר מאשר מרבית הסכנות והאיומים אשר מעל לראשינו מרחפים.
לא כל מנהיג נבחר או ממונה מצליח לענות על
הציפיות. כישלון בודד אינו מצביע על הכלל. אולם ביום זה, ברגע זה כשאנו מסתכלים
ימינה ושמאלה, לפנים ולאחור, בכל אשר נתבונןקיים משבר של מנהיגות.
נתחיל דווקא בתחומים
שאינם בכותרות: הבה ניזכר כמה תקוות לשינוי בחינוך ילדינו היו לנו כשהתמנתה אשת
האקדמיה לשרת החינוך. כה הרבה שנים נשאה נאומים נלהבים על המהפכה הדרושה לנו, כה
רבות היו הציפיות ממנה, אך כאשר הגיעה לעמדה של הובלה, של מנהיגות, דבר לא משתנה,
בתי הספר ממשיכים להיראות כמו מעברות, איכות החינוך ממשיכה לשקוע ביוון הביצה,
למרות עשרות המילארדים שמוקצים לחינוך מדי שנה בשנה.
ובמשטרה, מביזיון
לביזיון, לא אמנה את הכישלונות, מבני כהן שברח מבית המשפט עד פרשת האחים פריניאן. היאוש הכללי מנוכחות המשטרה ותיפקודה.
חשבנו כי השר החדש לביטחון פנים, שהגיע עם נזר הצלחת השב"כ באינתיפאדה.
קיווינו, התפללנו, היינו בטוחים, הנה בא המנהיג שיטלטל את המשטרה, שירים אותה מבור
תחתיות, שישנה בתכלית שינוי את בטחון הפנים, אך גם תקווה זו מתנפצת והולכת.
כמו שביט עלה וזרח
כוכבה עד שהתמנתה לשרת החוץ. הייתה דוברת מופלאה של ראש הממשלה אריק
והצבא. אפילו לא הצליח
להוציא מתוכו רמטכ"ל חדש. מכל האלופים הרבים לא נמצא מנהיג אחד ראוי למשרה
שכולם חושקים בה. הרי המטה הכללי הוא האינקובטור, והנה אין שם מנהיג וצריך ללכת
לחפש בקרב האזרחים. ובמטה הכללי הכל מתקבל ללא טרוניות ומענות אין אחד שרואה עצמו
ראוי לעמדת מנהיגות. אכן הלוך הלכו העצים...
וטרם דיברתי על משרד
הביטחון, על משרד ראש הממשלה, על הרווחה בישראל, תחום שכה זקוק למנהיג ואין שר
שמוכן ליטול על עצמו את המנהיגות החיונית כדי להתוות מדיניות, להקצות משאבים,
ולהרים מאשפות את מאות אלפי העניים, הנדכאים והמושפלים.
ובאקדמיה יש מנהיג,
יש מוביל דרך? ומי ימלא תוכן בהנהגת בית המשפט העליון אשר שוקע בריב ומדון עם משרד
המשפטים ועוד חזון למועד. בערים הגדולות, הכל מדשדש במי מדמנה ואין משכוכית ואין
ראש וראשון שיראה ייעוד בשכונות המצוקה ולא באזורי היוקרה.. האם מותר לנו לצפות
למנהיגות בין אנשי התקשורת? כל השומע יצחק לשאלה תלושה זו המנהיגות של החברה החרדית אשר ריסנה את
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והתנכרות שאין חזרה ממנה.
אין מענה ואין הסבר
למשבר המנהיגות, אולי אפילו מאוחר כבר, אך חובה להתריע בשער. משבר המנהיגות ברוב
אורחות חיינו, מסוכן יותר מאשר מרבית הסכנות המרחפות מעל לראשינו.