Prelude to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

Moscow seeks a new team

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While the situation in Afghanistan worsened during the summer of 1979, the intelligence of the USA received many indications which the Soviets sought of the solutions of replacement to the mode of Taraki-Amin. The Soviet civils servant did not make any effort hide their dissatisfaction with their incapacity to force the mode in withdrawing extreme measurements social and economic which enflamaient the tribals groups and Islamic. In the conversations with civils servant of embassy of the USA and other members of the international diplomatic corps in Kabul, Safronchuk stated clearly that Moscow sought a manner of replacing Taraki and Amin—especially Amin. According to various accounts', Safronchuk indicated the Soviets were frustrated by their incapacity to persuade the Afghan mode to create a coalition which could gain a stronger support by introducing representatives of the various political electoral colleges into the government. Other Soviet civils servant took the same line.

In mid-July, the German ambassador is in Kabul said to diplomats the USA that the desire of the Soviets to replace the Afghan mode was such as they were laid out to employ the force with the need. Another Moscow by sources projected a change by the military officers opposed to Amin. There were several reports/ratios which exiled members of the faction of Parcham in Europe east claimed that the Soviets had promised to turn over them to the power. The analysts of intelligence looked at the option "of military change" as more probable, believing that Moscow would not have any reason to expect that the base of the support of a government of Karmal is broader than that of the faction of Taraki-Amin. 57

The same stories appeared in the pressure. With Time Of New York article August 2 indicated the Soviets sought an alternative to the mode of Taraki-Amin, and apparently concentrated on the soldiers like source for a change of government. Periods Amin by article was considered "a burning revolutionist" who was the true power in Afghanistan and which continued to push its inflammatory policies of reform in spite of the Soviet inviting to proceed more with precaution. The high visibility being given to these Soviet prospects led the embassy from the USA to Kabul to be posed in theory in July that Moscow was committed in an effort calculated to soften the reaction to the increasing Soviet military presence and to attenuate the reaction if a sales turnover of mode finally were carried out. Another goal not mentioned in this report/ratio of embassy could have been to intensify pressures on Taraki and Amin to moderate their revolutionary policies. 58

That which the reason of high the level of noise, Taraki and Amin clearly obtained with the word that the Soviets were outside to replace them. In July, the analysts of intelligence of the USA described a shakeup in the Afghan box like a movement by Taraki and Amin to acquire an Soviet-active change fears by the alienated military officers. Amin took again the post of Minister for defense, a movement which the analysts of intelligence described as probably conceived to improve its advantageous position for repèrer and to move in addition to any blow of in the soldiers. This interpretation also appeared in the Western pressure. According to analysts' of intelligence, one reported that figure in the plan "to install a new government, and was sent Watanjar" again to the interior ministry, looking further into his antagonism towards Amin. 59