How
can we win in struggle with AIDS
Nature has created the Mankind as a continuation
of itself, the crown of its creation. Just like strict mother she trains him her secrets, generously awarding for
successes and punishing for laziness and dullness. The reasonable mankind was
generated after the people have learned to exchange the information with each
other, to keep and to transfer it to the new generations. Having learned to use
fire, the mankind has mastered new, earlier inaccessible to it areas of the
planet and was rewarded by nature when
increasing the number. It became stronger and faster after mastering a wheel
and metals. Number of a human population has grown again. Development of space,
nuclear energy, the achievements in the sphere of information and genetic
revolution undoubtedly will result in expansion of a human civilization, improvement of the people's life and their
intellectual potential. But if a nation
stops its development or lags behind in this eternal race of
development, it is comprehended with such punishment as wars, crises or
epidemics, which quickly reduce the size of population.
The rates of
development of a human civilization as a whole and its separate fragments -
nations and states, are defined in rates of scientific and technical progress
first of all. Each serious opening in technical or social sphere allows to
increase power and number of nations, which can widely use it. The strong and
technically advanced nations subordinate or supersede weak, solving the
problems at their expense. There is an ancient intellectual selection
caused by assignment of a human Civilization. The technological revolutions
used to be the marks of this grandiose historical process. Development and mass
use of fire, alphabet, wheel, metals, various kinds of energy, communication,
computers - all this technological revolutions are giving an opportunity to
more strong-willed, capable and vigorous nations to subordinate and to use or
to destroy other nations, lagging behind in the development. Why the sense of
existence of mankind consists of continuous development, cognition of nature
and self-perfection? It is possible to answer this question if taking a look
after stages of development already of existing natural structures and to
understand applicability of a human Civilization in a general picture of the
World.
Under the
theory of the Great explosion, at the moment of time extremely close to a point
of birth of our universe, the elementary particles have appeared. All of them
have formed its physical space. The atoms of chemical substances were formed as
a result of interaction between elementary particles. A chemical system of
interactions existed. It had qualitatively new property - ability to create
spatial objects. Objects of chemical system created a spatial structure of the
universe, stars, planets, atmosphere, oceans. Genetic system of interactions
arose on this basis. It had new quality too. Its objects of enormous
complexity, were capable to create similar to itself material objects with high
accuracy, i.e. have had an opportunity to multiply copies independently,
transferring primary volume of the information to the subsequent generations
and filling the missing information at the expense of interaction with an
environment. The genetic system has formed a series of structures and
associates, which became elements of vegetative world and fauna. The most
complicated of them have essentially new quality - ability to think. The man
was allocated as an associate, possessing the best abilities to think. It has
allowed him to lead in his development and to master all spaces suitable for
life, he superseded (or even destroyed!) nearest competitors and created the Civilization of his own, as a
new social structure of interaction. This structure of interaction has
essentially new quality too. It can
establish a number of laws of development independently, generating and
changing them during the process.
Not a system of
interaction, earlier created by nature possesses ability to establish the interaction laws of its own
elements independently. In this respect our Civilization is unique! It is
sole in a nature structure, which has such freedom of development. She can not only establish own social laws of
interaction between people, but also changes them from time to time. It depends
on tasks facing her and the level of her own development.
The
Civilization had received such great freedom and ability of collective thinking
and now it can complicate and develop Nature more. The reason allows her to
create the most complicated technological and social systems, structures
purposefully and quickly. Also avoiding evolution and consecutive sorting,
borrowing from Nature billions years of
experiment. Through solving its problems, our Civilization complicates, and
develops the whole Universe. The Universe exists due to indefinite developing.
Becoming simpler and being decomposed on components she dies. The development
means 'life'. The opportunity of reasonable development gives essentially new
opportunities for the further complication and development of Nature also. The human Civilization should
help her to pass from an evolutionary way of development to reasonable.
Hence, basic
applicability and purpose of existence of our Civilization consists in
creating, developing and transferring
ability to think, and ability to reasonable development and reasonable
transformation of the World to more powerful structures. Probably these
structures will form the Reasonable World in the future, which will create the
New Worlds.
The human Civilization
is integral and organic element of all nature. It consists of its elements.
Co-operating with all set of natural structures it develops by the same
principles, as any of her complicated objects, i.e. creates new structures
which possesses new qualities. Our Civilization, as well as any other natural
structure, should develop for the sake of life. Any delay of development will
result to compression and crisis occurrences, any acceleration - to expansion
and growth. It is the basic law of development of all natural structures and
the Mankind here can not be exception.
Hence, the
basic task of a Human Civilization is solving a problem of an artificial
intelligence. The creation of self-developing electronic intelligence is the
principal and most important task of all Human Civilization. For this sake our
Universe has generated her. It is her Mission.
The man who has
solved this task, becomes a Legend. His name will be immortal.
Having created
an artificial brain, the Mankind will solve all the most difficult riddles of
nature and will solve all the problems. After that, many billions of years it
will be self-improving and transforming
the World for the sake of self-preservation and self-development. For as soon
as the Mankind will be saturated and it will be satisfied with its achievements
- it will be lost! Together with Mankind its universe will be lost too!
The nature will
begin a new coil of development with a new Civilization in new space and new
time… So it was always. So will be eternal.
Apparently the
Mankind still had not enough time for the performance of its mission. If it
will not fulfil it in 21-st century, it will die from AIDS, thus cleared vital
space for other biological kinds, which will justify hopes of the Universe and
will solve a task of creation of artificial intelligence.
The historical
development of a civilization in the 21-st century will be defined by two
positive and two negative global factors. Continuation of information and
development of genetic technological revolutions can be related to positive
factors. AIDS disease and exhaustion of stocks of petroleum are negative
factors. AIDS will be prevailing factor in determining the historical character
of the 21-st century.
The information
AIDS is fatal
and incurable illness of immunity. The virus immunity's deficit destroys the
central element of system, which protects the man from all illnesses, - cell of
blood, which refer to Ò-helpers. Defenceless organism becomes an easy prey of
infection. The virus of AIDS changes more often, than virus of influenza,
therefore it is impossible to create a vaccine. The second feature of this
virus is that it adds its part of DNA in a molecule of DNA of Ò-helpera, making
human organism a carrier of the infection forever. The modern genetics can not
find the way to clean the DNA of T-helpers yet. Catching a HIV-infection, Only
20-35 percents of people are getting
AIDS and dying in 7-10 years. Others, not being sick, are constant active carriers
of infection, who infect the healthy people. The feebleness of immunity of
these people as a result of illness, reception of some hormonal preparations,
after surgical operations, regular overfatigue or undereating will lead them to
deficiency of
immunity.
Cost of
supporting treatment of the patient from the moment of infection up to
destruction is up to 150 thousand dollars. The treatment of a great many people
will require the astronomical charges capable to paralyse economy of any
powerful state.
AIDS is
distributed in the world very quickly. According to information of the World
organisation of public health services in 1996 there were 14 millions of
infectioned people. In 2000 it was expected of 30-40 millions patients. AIDS is
rapidly develops in Africa, USA and Europe. The modern medicine does not know
the way how to stop it.
Elaboration of
cheap and widely spread means of struggle is essentially possible by synthesis
of an artificial anti-virus carrying
out "mirror functions" of all possible clones of this virus which is
independently extending among infectioned people. But even at the forced rates
of development the genetics can reach the
technological level necessary for synthesis of genetic designs, capable
to carry out difficult functions, not earlier, than in 25-50 years. 10-25 years
are required for experiments and mass distribution of an antivirus among ill
people. Thus approximately 35-75 years AIDS will freely develop in the world.
After that the recession will be
possible. It is the rather optimistic forecast. The worst variant of
development is also probable, if the assumption to synthesize cheap and mass medicine from AIDS is practically
impossible will be justified.
The forecast
received on the basis of the statistical data from WHO about modern dynamics of
distribution of infection and their mathematical processing, shows, that if the
effective way of struggle with infection will not be found in the nearest
future, this global epidemic consistently will capture all countries of the
world. In 2030-2075 years it will reach a maximum rate. The gain of the
population of all countries will be slowed down, and then reduced quickly.
(Look the table and fig. 1. The mathematical expectation of a mistake of the
forecast should not be more than 15-18 %).
The
dynamics forecast
of
number of the world population and global epidemic
for
the period 2000-2200
1 - population
2 - number of ill
people
3 - amount of AIDS
patients
4 - amount of the
people annually perishing from virus
Fig.
1
The states
which are not limiting sexual freedom of the population will be the first
victims of this global epidemic. Africa, America and Europe will carry the
heaviest losses in 2020-2035 years (see fig. 2). At this time we can become the
witnesses of hardest crisis of power of the United States and leading countries
of Europe. AIDS morbidity will have catastrophic character.
The table
Forecasted
number of the population
and
dynamics of global epidemic (AIDS) in 2000-2200 mln. people
|
Year |
Population of
a planet |
Amount of
people infected by virus |
Amount of the
patients |
Amount
annually perishing |
|
|
1996 |
5560 |
14 |
1 |
0.3 |
|
|
2000 |
6100 |
26 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
2025 |
9280 |
610 |
180 |
8 |
|
|
2050 |
12480 |
11860 |
3560 |
217 |
|
|
2075 |
6950 |
6610 |
1980 |
327 |
|
|
2100 |
3290 |
3130 |
940 |
155 |
|
|
2125 |
1560 |
1480 |
440 |
73 |
|
|
2150 |
740 |
700 |
210 |
34 |
|
|
2200 |
160 |
150 |
46 |
7 |
|
Total
lost from AIDS will be more than 14 billions of people!
The
dynamics forecast
of a
population of USA and Russia
for
the period of 2000-2200 years
1 - population
of USA
2 - population
of Russia
Fig.2
Enormous state expenses for treatment and
sharp reduction of number of the able-bodied population will be an excessive
burden for their economy. It will cause amplification of the tax mode with the
purpose of indemnification of the state charges on struggle with global
epidemic. These expenses will result in mass ruin of middle class, growth of
social intensity and political instability. The capitals from these countries
will begin to forward to Asia, where the development of global epidemic will
proceed with delay at 20-30 years. The fall of dollar becomes irreversible. The
disintegration of Eurounion and wreck of common European currency is rather
probable.
Disurbanity
will become one of the typical tendencies of 21-st century. The population,
being rescued from global epidemic will start to leave large cities.
Large-scale industry will lose working hands. The intensive development of
uninhabited territories mainly by small settlements will begin. Automated
deserted technological complexes and computer networks will get special
importance, as means of social association of nation and management of the
dispersed industry. The extremely strong reorganisation of world economy will
begin.
In connection
with an exhaustion of petroleum stocks in 2030 the influence of the
countries-exporters of petroleum can amplify. The expectation of approaching
accident will cause active political and economic rapprochement of Islamic
countries.
The weakening
of the modern centres of civilization in Europe and America can stimulate new
division in spheres of influence. Approach of the most aggressive states of
Asia to North and West can be expected in 2040. The reason will be in
discontent with rates of global epidemic transference on the territory of these
countries and problems of congestion. We can expect an activation of idea of
genocide of infected nations.
In 2045-2060
years, if mass means of effective struggle with AIDS will not be created,
global epidemic will grasp Asia, Southern America and all other world. In this
period Russia will have to go through numerous ordeals too. Desire of the
extremists leaders to revenge for AIDS destruction of millions compatriots to
everyone, who will seem to them guilty, can provoke the large-scale terrorist
acts and nuclear-chemical wars. If we shall keep military potential, we can
avoid many problems of this period.
The wave of
aggression, having reached its peak in 2050-2060 years, will sharply go on
recession. Global epidemic will undermine economic potential and will complete
military distractions of many states. In prospect we can expect, that African
firstly, and then populous Asian and Latin American countries with low standard
of living and weak medicine will be devastated. The traditional sexual
isolation in the Asian countries will
just remove the beginning of global epidemic there. The increased sexual activity
of these peoples, with the high level of birth rate as a consequence, will
speed up distribution of the virus. The consequences of epidemic in populous
areas of undeveloped and less developed countries can have a character of mass
extinction.
If the today's
rates of virus distribution will be kept, the peak of epidemic in Russia can be
expected approximately in 2060-2075 years. The chance to hope that the
antivirus of infection will be already created and our country will avoid
pernicious consequences of global accident, is very weak. Nevertheless, even
such delay gives Russia a unique opportunity for jerk in economic development.
It is possible to expect influx of capitals and technologies from the countries
demolished by epidemic in 2010-2030. Russia should effectively use this
opportunity. It should create dispersed information, genetic and industrial
automated infrastructure. As well as in USA and Europe, our population will
leave cities to villages and deserted areas of the country, dispersing there in
small settlements and limiting external sexual contacts. It will be possible to
carry out their dialogue, participation in economy and manufacture basically
with the help of computer networks. The dispersal and sexual self-restriction
of separate settlements will allow to slow down development of epidemic, to
keep intellectual potential and population.
Using polar
principles of state policy - principle of geographical dispersal and sexual
isolation of groups of the population for struggle with epidemic on the one
hand, and principle of the mass computer communications for association of the
population, functioning and development of the dispersed economy o the other
hand, Russia will have a chance to survive and even to develop normally in this
difficult time.
Peoples of the
technologically advanced countries with significant territorial reserves and
traditionally constrained sexual traditions, and high level of medicine and
genetics development will suffer from epidemic less. The genetics will
determine vital potential of nations in the 21-st century. Medicine from AIDS
during the period of epidemic will not be just the mean of survival, but also
most effective mean of political struggle and global pressure! With its help
the world will be conducted! We can't hope that it will be too accessible to
Russia! We must invent it ourselves.
The
main task of genetics in 21 century is to rescue human Civilization from AIDS!
It is
possible to solve this task, on my opinion, by synthesis of an artificial
antivirus. This antivirus will root into a body of struck T-helper as well as virus itself and to synthesize
there RNA, very similar to other molecule RNA of each version of a concrete
virus of immune deficit, attacking this cell. This property is necessary in
order to struggle with all its versions, despite of extreme variability of
virus. With the help of reflected RNA and revertazes of the virus, the
antivirus should construct on ribosommes of the cell a piece of DNA, reflected
from the piece, which virus builds in chromosome DNA of Ò-helper. After that
the components created by an antivirus, should build a next piece of DNA in the
same place, where breaking piece of DNA is added, synthesised by the virus of
immune deficit. The reflected piece of DNA should block those genetic changes,
which makes the breaking piece of DNA, synthesized by HIV. If there will be no
immune viruses in the cell, there will
be no both revertazes and RNA in it, therefore virus anti-immune, can not carry
out the function in a healthy cell and will wait for occurrence of viruses .
Among immune-infected people the virus anti-immune will be distributed itself,
improving them. Healthy people can use it as a vaccine with the purpose of
preventive maintenance of infection.
It is
possible to create this virus on the basis of immunity deficit virus, by
synthesized revertaze, capable to synthesize reflected RNA-chains with RNA of
viruses HIV. But it is an extremely difficult task. Not one ten years is
required for this decision probably. If this approach will be successful, by a
similar way it will be possible to struggle with cancer viruses and genetic
diseases, and also with old age, as by illness of immunity. Technically
advanced countries of the world, even if they will fail to synthesize a HIV-ANTIVIRUS,
can solve a problem of restoration of the number and struggle with AIDS by
industrial genetic reiteration of the population. From the technological point
of view it is considerably more simple, than synthesis of an antivirus, though
and not cheap, way. But it will allow to create big quantities of the most
capable and gifted people. Probably these "artificial" people will be
able to solve the most complicated problem of struggle with HIV. Maybe in 22-d
century they will find pleasure of natural duplication. But it already will be
new, the generically improved people with new qualities.
By the end of
21-st century the world will get tired of wars and will calm down. If Russia
will find some power and will to life and will make information and genetic
revolutions, it will return the erstwhile greatness and power. New traditions
and features of national character, new cities and territories of Siberia,
descendants of the lost nations who survived after the global epidemic will
stay forever.
If we can not
unit and rise our country and tens of other nations of Russia up already now,
they will be lost in history by the global epidemic.
AIDS is not an
apocalypses and not the end of the world. It is some kind of trial for people!
Test of their will to life, ability to develop and updating. Not numerous but
cleverest and strong-willed nations capable to self-denying work for society,
capable to endow most dear for the sake of children, capable to be united
in common and mighty monolith have a
chance to survive. Those who believe in the Great Future and makes it today
will survive!
After the global epidemic we can expect the great upswing of economy in
the world. It will be accompanied by revival of industry. The exhaustion of
petroleum stocks will cause the reorientation of world's industry to nuclear
and information power, bearers of energy and chemical half-products,
synthesized from low-grade coal and electrolysis of hydrogen. Manufacture of
chemical half-products will be profitable if locate it near the coal deposits
and powerful sources of energy, atomic power stations for example.
Soon people can
closely approach to a solution of antigravitation problem, will master
gravimagnetic and electrogravitational fields, will create superhigh effective
means of mass telecommunication and transport on their basis.
The mass
computerisation and system integration in all countries will be finished.
Global information networks will be divided into national, competing among
themselves. The global networks of instant access to the information, capable
to supply and to support simultaneous bilateral connection of each computer
with several thousand of other computers located in any point of a planet will
be created. Such connection will be provided with the help of supernetworks of
interaction, working on new kinds of co-operation.
It will allow
to unite all computers of the country and people working on them in national
bioelectronic structures. The formed systems will have all attributes of huge
independently conceiving biocomputer structure - national megabrain.
The superclever
conceiving global structures will manage the countries, solve the most
complicated scientific and technical, social and political problems. They will
develop and compete between themselves, asserting in intellectual struggle
interests of the states and members of the structures.
The development
of genetic revolution will give us highly productive technologies capable to
ensure enormous growth of a production efficiency of food-stuffs. The genetic
methods will result in development of technologies of self-reproduction of
volumetric parallel three-dimensional microcircuits of memory, computing
structures, biocomputers and even elements of controlled power structures.
New,
generically updated, mankind, refined by the global epidemic will enter the
following culmination stage of the development!
Vladimir
Nikitin
1997 y.