7 mai 2004
Will bike shops be bike shops in summer 2004 ?
It's tough to call your business a retailer of bicycles when you haven't got any bicycles to retail. It's becoming increasingly likely that there's soon going to be a critical supply and demand problem in bicycle shops around the world. There's not enough Shimano to go round. Not even the big guys can get their hands on enough of the stuff. For the first time ever, bicycle suppliers are hoping for a damp summer.
(...)
Ultegra is on 'hold'. XTR for MY05 bikes won't be shipped until August/September. Deore is to be shipped October/November. You can wait until December for Dura-Ace. There are hold-ups on lower-end kit as well. Add on to those shipping dates a month in delivery at least, possibly even more, depending on whether ships are delayed because of a severe shortage of containers, thanks to the rapidly expanding Chinese economy. The time lags are 60+ days longer than usual; for some gruppos much worse still. (...)
OK, so only mass-market Chinese bikes are made with bog-standard steel and it's only BMXs and niche road and MTBs that are made with cro-mo, but that doesn't mean the upscale bike market can relax when there's talk of steel shortages. The overheating Chinese economy isn't just gobbling steel, all raw materials are being swallowed with gusto. Rubber, plastics, aluminium, carbon-fibre - even cardboard for bike sheaths - are all in short supply, and prices are surging.
But aluminium is also in short supply, with prices rising. For now, most suppliers are absorbing the increased costs because raw materials usually only account for about 5-10 percent of the cost of finished goods but with continuous price hikes, consumers are going to have to start meeting the shortfall.
US bicycle industry consultant Jay Townley believes only those companies that increase prices for their finished bicycles or P&A have a hope of surviving : "China's red-hot economy has led to raw material shortages across the board, because of its increased consumption, and has driven related prices up substantially in all the developed countries.
"There is no short term solution, unless the Chinese put the brakes on their economic growth, and that isn't likely to happen, so the rest of the world is going to have to absorb and accommodate both the raw material price increases and the shortage of some raw material.
"This situation calls for steady hands on the wheel and logical thinking about charting a course for global trade. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen either. Trade disputes and flat out trade wars are looming, and since this is an election year [in the US] you can expect no logic whatsoever, much less any leadership out of the US, I am sad to say.
"This situation will be like a 100 pound weight exerting growing pressure on the chest of the bicycle industry, and the companies that can do it will increase prices, and those that can't, will probably be crushed."
Of course, it's not just the bicycle trade that's impacted by higher steel and aluminium prices, car makers are also hurting.
(...)
The 14th China International Bicycle & Motor Fair was held from April 14th to 17th at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre. Under the theme 'Advance with Health', and covering a total space of 66,000 square metress across six halls and 3200 booths, the event was a great place to see where all the steel, aluminium, carbon-fibre, rubber and plastics are going... It's not just Chinese suppliers, though.
The fair has attracted approximately 900 exhibitors from Italy, Holland, France, Germany, Poland, Japan, Korea, India, and Hong Kong. The event expected some 100,000 visitors.
Famous brand names with booths include Colnago of Italy, Shimano of Japan, and Zefal of France.
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