Call me to so we agree on how this all works. Bill- 760-217-0561. The start population is= 2.2 million people. Hopefully, before 200 yrs we will get down to 300,000 people. Bill 760-217-0561- [email protected]

 

Age 0 to 18 yrs

 

The starting population for this whole group of those 0 to 18 yrs old will be 500,000 . -----the death rate for this group will be .0006. or .06% of the previous year’s population for this group-- so… I think you just multiply the total from their population from the previous year by that fraction = .0006 to get the death rate for them then subtract the result from the 500,000.

--the birth rate gets added to this group too. I want the birth rate to be .002 of the total population [of the entire population of all 4 groups] from the previous year.

----The year advance from 18 yrs to 19 years into the next group will be 1/18^th or .055 of the previous year’s total of this group. Correct this if I am wrong.

 

Age 19 to 38 yrs

 

--Starting number= 700,000 …. --Death rate= .001 …

---advance rate to next group- is 1/20^th or .05 of their group’s population from the previous yr.

 

Age 39 to 58 yrs

 

--Starting number= 600,000 … --death rate= .004 …---advance rate= .05

 

age 59 to death

 

--starting rate= 400,000--- obviously, no advance here.

--death rate= .037 plus…+…. 1/10^th – 10%- of the number of that year’s 59+ population that puts this group over 1/3^rd of the total population must also be subtracted from their group per year. For instance= if that year’s total population is 900,000 and the 59+ group total that year is 360,000 [after the number of those advancing from 39-to-58 group was added to it] then you divide the 900,000 by 3 and get 300,000…then you subtract the 300,000 from the 360,000 to get 60,000. You then multiply the 60,000 by .10 [10%] to get 6000. You then multiply the 360,000 by .037 to get 13,320. Then add the 6000 to the 13,320 to get 19,320 then subtract the 19,320 [that year’s death total for the 59+ group] from the 360,000 to get 340,680. 340,680 is the new group total. This additional death calculation is necessary because with fewer births the old group will account for an increasing death sum.

Set up the 10 columns from left to right as shown below. If your math differs from mine, don’t worry. So long as it is close.

Birth rate > always .2% of total population of previous year.

group’s

death ratee> youngest= .0006 /  young= .001 /  mid= .004 /  oldest= .037+ 10% of all the 59+ group that puts them over 1/3 of tot population.

          ( age 0-18)(age 19-38)(age 39-58)(age 59 on)(death % of tot pop)(death total](birth total)  [net pop decrease]   [total pop.)

YEAR}

 

1] …  500,000      700,000     600,000     400,000                   ?                     ?                   ?                       ?                 2,200,000.  

2]…   476,340      692,059     602,685     415,880                .83%              18,200         4,364                 .6%               2,186,790.

 

I think the sequence of calculation might go like this=

1^st] all the death rates are calculated and subtracted from their groups. Or you just multiply times the larger fraction= i.e.- in the kids group it would be .9994 . Post only the big death total and death % [Not the amounts or %s per group]. Don’t forget to include the complex part of the 59+ group death rate.

2^rd]- Calculate the advance amounts…subtract them from their group and add it to the next older group beginning with ‘mid’ group, then ‘young’, then ‘youngest’. Post the new year’s population of the three oldest groups in their columns. [advance rates and advance totals will not be posted].

3^nd]- add up all the categorys’ new population totals and multiply that sum [the year’s preliminary total population] by .002 to get the yearly birth total and then add the birth total to the 0 to 18 year olds group.

 4^th]- Then add the new youngest group total to the totals of the other 3, now final group totals, to get the new year’s population. Have the death total divided by the total pop. to get the death % that year. Then, Subtract the new population total from the last year’s total then divide the remainder by last year’s total to get the net percentage population decrease that year. Calculate and post the decrease % along with all the correct amounts in the all 9 columns.

5^th]- After many years down the graph, when population total reaches 90,000, can you then change the birth rate to equal the death rate? Then, Continue file out for 150 more years and then END file. Hopefully, with zero population growth, the population level of the oldest group will eventually return to a level that is less than 1/3^rd the total population.

Can you email me the file? [email protected]   . . thanks, bill 760-217-0561