Main Summary

• SGAM-Akio Yoshino: Nikei might hit 10.000 around March 2005
• Sieg securities-Hideo Mizutani: Nikkei could rally towards 14000 by Nov 2005

The world in 2020 - US Intelligence

• Hollywood will be out and India's Bollywood will be in
• US as sole superpower will out. China and India as world players will be in
• Global players will include China and India. Whether these new players fit into the world as partners or competitors remains an important uncertainty for the US.
• The integration of 1 billion low paid workers will cause global shifts in rich and poor countries. Changes will be experienced politically, economically and even culturally.
• US is in good shape to participate in this world, but it will a world that will be much more competitive for US.

Guide 2005 - Jim Rogers

Summary

• The current commodities boom began in early 1999

How to invest like Jim

1. Ride the commodities bull
   • check Rogers International Raw Materials fund (www.rogersrawmaterials.com)
   • check Pimco Commodity Real Return Strategy
   • Check Oppenheimer Real Asset
2. Go long on China

   Investing in China market is like investing in Dow in 1904 (the Dow closed at 70 that year; it has gone up 150 times since). Nevertheless, his most recent trip to China reinforced his confiction that Chinese economy is due for hard landing in the next 12 mths (since Dec 2004). When correction comes, load up on Chinese shares. One user-friendly way to do the same is to buy index-linked fund.

3. Bet against US Dollar
   • Expect short term rally in greenbacks. The value of dollar will keep falling for years.
   • Open bank account in natural-resource-heavy economies such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and South Africa.

On Commodities

• Commodities futures have produced better annual returns than stocks and outperformed bonds with less risk and volatility.
• Legg Mason researcher Barry Bannister, shows that for the past 130 years stocks and commodities have alternated leadership in regular cycles averaging 18 years.
• The current commodities boom began in early 1999

Larry Williams Technical Investing

Timing in investing

1. 10 year pattern

   Buying opportunity comes up every 10 years, especially year ending with 2 and 3 (usually begin the first 3 mths of the year). For example, 1992, 2002, 2003, 2012, 2013

2. Phenomenal 5 years

   The middle year of the 10 year pattern tends to produce some real rock and roll upside markets (rally). Years ending with 8 showed winners in 8 out of 10 occurances. Years ending with 7 and 0 are worst performers (negative return)

3. Sure thing 7 years

   Years ending with 7 (fall timeframe) provides best buying opportunity. For example 1977, 1987 (asian financial crisis), 1997. This is usually followed by 2 years of bull market (years ending with 7 and 9).

4. 4 year phenomenon

   Market low is repeated every 4 years. For example: oct 1990, fall 94, fall 98, fall 2002, fall 2006

5. October effect

   The majority of major stock market buying point begin in October. This will lead to market rally that extend into April-May. Then the market will go stagnate, flat, or decline.

   Bond usually rally around 20th Oct until Christmas week. If bond prices have bottomed / firmed around oct (Fed is taking positive action) then one could use this confirmation to enter into the stock market.

   Every single bear market is preceded by higher interest rates and by a decline in the bond market.