: 24/18 13/9   : 24/22 8/7*

Blue to play       for Money Game


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1O ' ' ' '5X|   |1X2X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       3 3       |
|1X '1X ' '5O|   | '3O1O ' '5X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White: 164, Blue: 164

• Blue to play        Luck Rate:  + 0.317


            • Money Game Equities

B/22 13/10 6/3*(2) +0.464
    W: 60.0%    WG: 22.1%    LG:   9.7%   CL: +0.335    CF: +0.464
B/22 9/6 6/3*(2) +0.372 ( -0.092)
    W: 58.5%    WG: 19.6%    LG:   9.9%   CL: +0.272    CF: +0.372
B/22 24/21 6/3*(2) +0.372 ( -0.092)
    W: 58.3%    WG: 18.9%    LG: 10.0%   CL: +0.264    CF: +0.359
B/22 24/18* 6/3* +0.330 ( -0.134)
    W: 58.2%    WG: 18.0%    LG: 10.4%   CL: +0.272    CF: +0.372

            Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/world class, pruned, Full, 1296 games


If Blue chooses to hit the blot on White's bar-point, it seems right to use the last 3 to hit loose on his 3-point.  This puts two White checkers on the bar and unstacks the 6-point.  The problem with this play is that it leaves a return shot, and if White hits the shot Blue loses his entire initiative.  If White doesn't hit back, Blue will still have to cover the blot on his 3-point with a half of his next roll when he otherwise rather use the roll to make a better point.

Making the 3-point looks much better to me.  This locks up a good inner-board point, unstacks the heavy 6-point.
If Blue makes his 3-point, the final 3 should be used to bring a builder to the 10-point.  Blue doesn't need to resplit with 24/21 and more importantly, 24/21 gives White decent non-entering 3's.
The builder distribution after 13/10 is very nice.  13/10 with the last 3 is more productive than any other alternative.


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