: 24/18 13/11   : 13/7* 13/11

Blue to play       for Money Game


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1O ' ' ' '5X|   |1X3X ' '1X4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 1       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' '1O3X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White: 159, Blue: 166

• Blue to play        Luck Rate:  -  0.200


            • Money Game Equities

B/24 13/9 - 0.146
    W: 46.2%    WG: 13.5%    LG: 16.5%   CL: - 0.109    CF: - 0.146
B/21 6/5 - 0.152 ( -0.006)
    W: 47.3%    WG: 12.5%    LG: 18.6%   CL: - 0.123    CF: - 0.152
B/21 11/10 - 0.156 ( -0.011)
    W: 46.2%    WG: 11.9%    LG: 16.6%   CL: - 0.124    CF: - 0.156
B/21 24/23 - 0.171 ( -0.026)
    W: 46.1%    WG: 11.5%    LG: 16.9%   CL: - 0.134    CF: - 0.171
B/24 11/7 - 0.233 ( -0.087)
    W: 44.4%    WG: 11.7%    LG: 16.2%   CL: - 0.161    CF: - 0.233

            Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/world class, pruned, Full, 1296 games


Entering with the 4 on the 21-point comes under the gun of White's three builders/attackers and looks dangerous, but White will make his 4-point whether Blue is there or not.  If White doesn't point on Blue with the perfecta, the checker on the 21-point will often be threatening to make an advanced anchor.
If Blue chooses to enter on the 21-point, I would rather break the rule and prefer the splotting (split+slot) play of 6/5 over 11/10 with the ace.  Blue needs to develop his position, and the duplication of 4's is very real.

If Blue chooses to enter with the ace, B/24 13/9 is my definite choice.  The builder on the 9-point is quite valuable.  If White hits one of Blue's blot in the outer-board, Blue will still have some return shots.

So, for me the choice is between B/21 6/5 and B/24 13/9.  The deciding factor is that White has not yet split his back men, so Blue doesn't need an advanced anchor too badly.  Also, Blue is a bit behind in the race, so he doesn't mind getting involved in a priming battle.

It looks close, but my preference is to sit back on the 24-point and play the priming game with B/24 13/9.


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