: 8/3 6/3
: 24/18 13/10
for Money Game
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• Blue to play
• Money Game Equities
24/22 13/8
+0.026
W: 49.9% WG: 13.8% LG: 11.5% CL: +0.022 CF: +0.026
24/22 6/1*
+0.003 ( -0.023)
W: 49.0% WG: 16.0% LG: 11.7% CL: +0.023 CF: +0.003
13/11 6/1*
- 0.068 ( -0.094)
W: 47.3% WG: 16.4% LG: 14.2% CL: - 0.032 CF: - 0.068
6/1* 3/1
- 0.069 ( -0.095)
W: 47.0% WG: 16.9% LG: 13.2% CL: - 0.025 CF: - 0.069
Play: 0-ply/expert, pruned, Cube: 2-ply/world class, pruned, Full, 1296 games
Hitting loose on the ace-point is anti-positional and a bit over-extended play. A checker is taken out of play too early in the game. If the blot is hit back, Blue loses a lot of ground in the race, and if it is not hit back, Blue pretty much has to cover it, which takes another checker out of play and commits himself to a blizing sort of approach, or leave it there where it will be hit later at the worst moment.
On the other hand, there are plenty of advantages to the loose-hit. Hitting loose on the ace-point puts White on the bar, depriving White of half of his roll, so unless White rolls doubles, he will not be able to make a new point next turn. In addition, White might flunk, which gains Blue a valuable tempo. Since White has split to Blue's bar-point, the loose-hit is more attractive than he has split to Blue's inner-board. Hitting loose on the ace-point prevents White from making an anchor unless he rolls exactly a seven, and many of his entering numbers which contain a 6 are very awkward to play.
If Blue chooses to hit loose, both 13/11 6/1* and 24/22 6/1* are reasonable. My preference is 24/22 6/1*, going after White's blot on the 10-point.
24/22 13/8 is a well-balanced play. Blue has already started to unstack his 6-point while the five checkers remain on the mid-point.
Blue doesn't have vital blots to protect and White isn't threatening much, which argues against the loose-hit.
On balance, I think the heavy mid-point and the stripping 6-point are the deciding factors, so the better play appears to be 24/22 13/8.
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