: 13/8 13/11   : 13/8 13/9

Blue to play       for Money Game


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '4X1X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 1       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '4O ' '1O3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White: 158, Blue: 160

• Blue to play        Luck Rate:  -  0.227


            • Money Game Equities

11/5 - 0.102
    W: 47.5%    WG: 13.9%    LG: 16.3%   CL: - 0.077    CF: - 0.102
13/8 6/5 - 0.109 ( -0.007)
    W: 47.5%    WG: 13.8%    LG: 16.4%   CL: - 0.079    CF: - 0.109
24/18 - 0.110 ( -0.008)
    W: 48.1%    WG: 12.0%    LG: 16.4%   CL: - 0.083    CF: - 0.110
8/3 6/5 - 0.177 ( -0.074)
    W: 46.7%    WG: 13.5%    LG: 18.5%   CL: - 0.125    CF: - 0.177
24/23 13/8 - 0.180 ( -0.078)
    W: 46.3%    WG: 12.9%    LG: 16.8%   CL: - 0.115    CF: - 0.180
24/23 11/6 - 0.212 ( -0.109)
    W: 45.1%    WG: 12.0%    LG: 16.9%   CL: - 0.148    CF: - 0.212

            Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/world class, pruned, Full, 1296 games


The plays which involve stripping the mid-point are very ugly.  Blue can live with the five checkers on the 8-point, since these checkers will often figure to find places to go.  The problem is that it strips the mid-point so early in the game.  Blue should find something better.

11/5 is reasonable.  However, the checker on the 11-point is already in a good place, and the slot loses this important builder.
In addition, Blues's position looks somewhat cramped after this play.

White's spare(s) on the 8-point and the checker on the 9-point are aiming at his bar-point.  If Blue comes out to White's bar-point and White rolls point-making numbers such as 3-1 or 4-2, White won't be able to make a valuable inner-board point without giving Blue a direct shot at the blot on the 9-point.
Blue doesn't lose much unless White points on Black on the bar-point.  If White simply hits Black on the bar-point, Black will have plenty of return shots.  Plus, 24/18 keeps Blue's position in a better balance.
I like 24/18.


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