: 13/11 6/5   : 24/21(2) 13/10(2)

Blue to play       for Money Game


+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X '2X '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
| ' ' '2X1O4O|   | '3O ' '1O3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: White: 155, Blue: 164

• Blue to play        Luck Rate:  -  0.146


            • Money Game Equities

13/8 13/11 - 0.325
    W: 42.6%    WG:   9.1%    LG: 16.0%   CL: - 0.220    CF: - 0.325
24/22 13/8 - 0.347 ( -0.022)
    W: 41.6%    WG:   9.1%    LG: 17.5%   CL: - 0.258    CF: - 0.347
8/3 5/3 - 0.364 ( -0.039)
    W: 41.3%    WG:   8.7%    LG: 16.3%   CL: - 0.253    CF: - 0.364
24/22 11/6 - 0.366 ( -0.041)
    W: 41.1%    WG:   8.5%    LG: 17.0%   CL: - 0.268    CF: - 0.366
13/11 8/3 - 0.381 ( -0.055)
    W: 41.6%    WG:   9.6%    LG: 17.2%   CL: - 0.250    CF: - 0.381

            Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/world class, pruned, Full, 1296 games


I don't think it's right to lift the slot and make the 3-point.  The 3-point is pretty weak behind White's 4-point anchor and these two checkers are almost dead.  This play removes the spare on the 8-point, reducing Blue's chances of making the 5-point later.
An only advantage of making the 3-point is that the point may come in handy when Blue can attack White, but it seems quite unlikely.  Given the timing, White is not in any hurry to leave the 4-point anchor.  White won't leave the anchor unless he rolls escaping doubles.
Additionally, White has a solid structure, so White doesn't figure to leave many shots.  Blue should keep his checkers in front of White's anchor.

The slot on the 5-point doesn't seem to be in too much danger since White wouldn't like giving up his anchor in order to hit the blot.  Also, some aces are duplicated for White.
After Blue makes the 3-point, White has the six shots (6-1, 5-2, 4-3) at Blue's blot on the 11-point and making the 11-point in front of the 5-point slot is a strong combination for Blue.

13/8 13/11 strips the mid-point but that doesn't seem to be much of a problem, since Blue has many outfield checkers to play with.
Blue will want to use high rolls to develop his back checkers so there's less need for mid-point spares.


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