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Pip counts: White: 147, Red: 152
• Money Game
Pip counts: White: 147, Red: 152
• Red to play 
| 13/8 9/8 | -0.455 | 40.5% 8.6% 0.3% 59.5% 22.0% 0.5% | ||
| 24/23 13/8 | -0.484 ( -0.029) | 40.0% 9.4% 0.4% 60.0% 25.4% 0.7% | ||
| 13/8 6/5 | -0.502 ( -0.047) | 39.0% 9.6% 0.3% 61.0% 24.5% 1.2% | ||
| 13/7 | -0.544 ( -0.089) | 38.3% 9.6% 0.3% 61.7% 25.5% 1.2% | ||
| 24/18 | -0.608 ( -0.153) | 38.0% 7.6% 0.3% 62.0% 26.6% 0.8% |
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Red has rolled one of his worst numbers.
If Red plays 24/18, White has 19 hit-and-cover numbers. If missed, White's position is still solid. Slotting the bar-point or the 5-point is anti-thematic, since White has a better board and Red has one-man back. Moving the back checker up to the 23-point with the ace simply puts the checker under the gun of White's builders. White can either point on the 2-point or cover the blot on his 3-point while hitting loose on the 2-point. It is true that the checker on Red's 9-point is a nice builder for the inside-points, but in this position Red's lone back checker is likely to be attacked, so it is vital for Red to clean up the blot. While Red is on the bar, the point-making rolls vanish, while the risk remains constant. It is not a time to make a cube-provoking play. White's position is solid, but Red is not a complete underdog, yet. Red should not take extra risks. He should simply play the "awkward-looking" 13/8 9/8, hoping his position will get equalized later. |