| Pip counts: White: 19, Red: 100 |
Gammon race is close. White has a speed board and he will have borne all off in 5.5 rolls without doubles (most of the time he needs 4.6 rolls: 5.5 - 0.9).
On the other hand, Red has 38 pips plus 2 pips for ripping one off to save a gammon, so he needs 4.9 rolls on average
: (38 + 2) / 8.2 (the average pips per a turn = 49/6).
Red surely wants large doubles to take his checker(s) to the 6-point with fewer pip-wastage.
6-6 doesn't make much difference (each checker on 9&10 vs. 8&11), while 5-5 does.
Moving to the 16-point is better than moving to the 17-point because Red gets to the 6-point directly from the 16-point with 5-5.
21/18 also puts a checker on White's even numbered point and this play is probably as good as 20/16, but putting a checker six pips away from the 6-point looks more instinctive and natural.
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