Response vs. Opening   for Money

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' '1X4X '3X1X ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  63  |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 162, Red: 167

• Red to play     Luck Rate: - 0.251


            • Money Game Equities

24/15 - 0.258
    44.2%     9.9%  0.4%    55.8%   17.4%   0.6%   CL: - 0.193    CF: - 0.258
24/18 13/10 - 0.281 ( -0.023)
    43.9%   11.0%  0.7%    56.1%   18.5%   0.8%   CL: - 0.200    CF: - 0.281
13/4                                (936 games) - 0.343 ( -0.084)
    41.8%   11.6%  0.5%    58.2%   18.1%   1.0%   CL: - 0.234    CF: - 0.343
24/21 13/7                     (936 games) - 0.358 ( -0.100)
    42.1%   10.8%  0.5%    57.9%   18.6%   1.0%   CL: - 0.241    CF: - 0.358
13/7 13/10                     (936 games) - 0.366 ( -0.107)
    41.5%   11.6%  0.6%    58.5%   19.2%   1.3%   CL: - 0.254    CF: - 0.366
24/18 8/5                       (936 games) - 0.394 ( -0.135)
    41.9%   10.3%  0.6%    58.1%   21.0%   1.3%   CL: - 0.277    CF: - 0.394


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
24/15 0.115
24/18 13/10 0.129
13/4 0.129
24/21 13/7 0.116
13/7 13/10 0.136
24/18 8/5 0.145




The main problem with slotting with 8/5 is that it slots with the wrong checker and leaves an awkward frontal distribution of checkers. 8/5 duplicates White's covering 4's but duplication in the first couple of turns in the game is generally less important than checker distribution and getting hit on your side of the table and losing both pips and a useful checker to make points is significant.
24/21 splits into range of White's several builders, so 24/21 13/7 cannot be right.
24/18 13/10 has a lot going for it since the checker on the 10-point is a fine builder with minimal risk because it cannot be profitably hit by 5-4 or 6-3 in response.

24/15 is likely technically a tiny bit superior to splitting (24/18 13/10) as there are so many hit/cover numbers.
Red will often be happy to be missed and continue with one man back. If hit, at least White won't be making a new offensive point very often.
On the other hand, 24/18 13/10 seems to lead to more complicated positions and might be best vs. weaker oppositions.

















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