• Money Game Equities

			24/15	- 0.106
			47.8%   10.9%  0.5%    52.2%   15.2%   0.6%   CL: - 0.088    CF: - 0.106
			24/20 13/8	- 0.123 ( -0.017)
			47.6%   11.5%  0.5%    52.4%   14.5%   0.5%   CL: - 0.078    CF: - 0.122
			13/8 6/2*	- 0.129 ( -0.023)
			46.3%   12.3%  0.5%    53.7%   14.5%   0.7%   CL: - 0.097    CF: - 0.129
			13/8 13/9	- 0.152 ( -0.046)
			46.2%   13.1%  0.6%    53.8%   14.9%   0.7%   CL: - 0.094    CF: - 0.152
			24/20 6/1*	- 0.154 ( -0.048)
			46.3%   11.2%  0.4%    53.7%   14.6%   0.6%   CL: - 0.109    CF: - 0.154
			13/9 6/1*	- 0.168 ( -0.062)
			45.9%   12.5%  0.4%    54.1%   15.3%   0.8%   CL: - 0.115    CF: - 0.168

            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%

            • Volatility after each play

			24/15	0.090
			24/20 13/8	0.143
			13/8 6/2*	0.104
			13/8 13/9	0.088
			24/20 6/1*	0.120
			13/9 6/1*	0.110

Red could hit loose with 13/8 6/2* or 24/20 6/1*, but both of these plays are a bit too committal.  It looks better to make the natural developing play of 24/20 13/8, challenging White's checker on the 11-point and hoping that White doesn't roll a perfect pointing number. In addition, this play will likely lead to the best offense if things go well. At GS or GS-like score, the loose-hit with 24/20 6/1* looks more attracitve, since this is the play which is most likely to lead to making White's 5-point. However, getting a third checker sent back loses too much ground in the race, and similarly getting hit after 24/15 loses more race equities, so my slight preference is still 24/20 13/8 at GS. At GG, plays which involve a loose-hit can have more going for it, but a loose-hit still looks too committal to me. Bringing two builders down can give Red probably most gammon-win chances, but I think the positional gain 24/20 13/8 creates outweighs the slight increase in gammon-win chances.

GG

DMP

GS