: 24/20 13/8   : 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

Red to play       for Money Game


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|1O ' '2X1O3X '3X ' '2X4O|
|   |
|      |  51  |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '4O ' ' '3X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 159, Red: 158

• Red to play        Luck Rate:  -  0.287


            • Money Game Equities

20/15 6/5 - 0.435
    W: 38.7%    WG: 9.0%    LG: 21.7%   CL: - 0.362    CF: - 0.435
13/7 - 0.443 ( -0.008)
    W: 37.6%    WG: 9.2%    LG: 20.1%   CL: - 0.363    CF: - 0.443
24/23 20/15 - 0.445 ( -0.010)
    W: 39.9%    WG: 9.4%    LG: 20.3%   CL: - 0.315    CF: - 0.445
24/23 13/8 - 0.526 ( -0.091)
    W: 37.7%    WG: 9.3%    LG: 20.7%   CL: - 0.364    CF: - 0.526


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
20/15 6/5 0.165
13/7 0.208
24/23 20/15 0.142
24/23 13/8 0.213



If Red wants to work on the offense, 13/8 6/5 starts the 5-point, but this play gives White good 4's which otherwise are one of his worst numbers.  Combining running with a slot, 20/15 6/5, might be okay if there were some duplication. As it is, there isn't.

If Red wants to do something with the back checkers it looks better to get that checker off White's 5-point before it gets blasted. 24/23 20/15 looks natural for this game plan.
However, I have often found it is not best to resplit the back checkers, so I think 24/23 is unnecessary.

I would go with 13/7.  This at least has a very real duplication of 6's, since several of White's 6's point on the checker on the 5-point.  This appears to be the best choice if Red chooses to hold his ground on White's 5-point.

I may be a bit too optimistic; Staying on the 20-point looks too big a play.  White has the stronger board, and will be anxious to attack there.
However, Red is already in a big trouble after White's very strong 2-2 response, and it would be nice for Red if he could win the fight for White's 5-point, although the odds are against him.
I will strive for White's 5-point, staying my back checkers where they are now.


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