• Money Game Equities

			24/21 13/9	- 0.180
			45.9%   12.0%  0.5%    54.1%   17.0%   0.8%   CL: - 0.134    CF: - 0.180
			13/9 13/10	- 0.182 ( -0.002)
			45.4%   13.3%  0.7%    54.6%   16.8%   1.1%   CL: - 0.132    CF: - 0.182
			24/21 24/20	- 0.192 ( -0.012)
			45.7%   10.9%  0.5%    54.3%   16.8%   0.7%   CL: - 0.146    CF: - 0.192
			24/20 13/10	- 0.220 ( -0.040)
			45.6%   11.5%  0.5%    54.6%   16.9%   0.9%   CL: - 0.149    CF: - 0.220

            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%

            • Volatility after each play

			24/21 13/9	0.148
			13/9 13/10	0.144
			24/21 24/20	0.133
			24/20 13/10	0.139

When your opponent has started with making the 3, 4, or 5-point, it is thematic to split the back checkers rather than try to build. If you build by bringing two builders down, you are one step behind in the board-building contest. (I would make this play only at pure GG.) If White hits one of the indirect shots, Red's entering numbers are more restricted against White's better board. By splitting, Red strives for an advanced anchor which will negate the effect of White's made 3-point. In addition, White's 8-point is stripped, so it isn't so convenient for White to attack the split. True, there is danger of being blitzed because White will be more anxious to attack since he has made a fairly deep inner-board point.  (If he had made the 4 or 5-point, splitting should be more obvious for Red.) However, since White has not brought any new ammunition down from the mid-point, the blitz danger isn't as great as it might seem. Actually, it is really more dangerous for Red to sit back on White's 24-point and wait.  This simply gives White the opportunity to bring some more ammunition into play next roll if he can't find anything else to do, and after that, splitting will be considerably more dangerous for Red. I'm sure that splitting is a better approach than building, but I don't care for the Middle Eastern double-split at all. This leaves White too many hitting or double-hitting numbers.  I don't think the increased pressure on White's stripped 8-point compensate for the far increased risk of getting blitzed. As to which split to make, that is a close call and that is not at all clear to me. My preference has usually been splitting to the 21-point.  It gives White less incentive to attack compared to 24/20. 24/20 goes after the best anchor, which is pretty reasonable, and I very slightly prefer this play at GS because of better holding-game potential. At other scores and for Money, against White's 3-point I would slightly prefer having 3's as return-hit numbers when White hits loose on his 4-point. If Red splits to the 20-point and White hits loose there, Red would have to enter to hit back with a 4, so 4-3 and 6-4 wouldn't allow Red to hit back. However, I have no idea if this is enough to overweight the value of going after the best anchor. The plays are very close for sure. [Build: 0.14/110504]

GG

DMP

GS