: 8/4 6/4   : 24/18 13/10

Red to play       for Money Game


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X '3X '1X '5O|
|   |
|      |  64  |
|1X ' '2O '4O|   |1X2O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 158, Red: 161

• Red to play        Luck Rate:  +0.062


            • Money Game Equities

24/20 13/7* +0.366
    W: 57.5%  WG:  19.6%    LG:  10.1%   CL: +0.249    CF: +0.366
13/7* 13/9 +0.330 ( -0.036)
    W: 57.1%  WG:  20.2%    LG:  11.1%   CL: +0.237    CF: +0.330


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
24/20 13/7* 0.178
13/7* 13/9 0.171



The arguments for bringing another builder with 13/9 are:
1) The builder on the 9-point is very strong.  If White doesn't hit back, Red will be well placed to make another inside point on the next roll and quite possibly carry out a successful blitz.
2) The mid-point is not yet stripped after 13/9, so Red will retain a very flexible position.
The downside to this play is that if White does hit back, Black will have a checker on the bar and two checkers on White's ace-point, so it will be difficult to get anything going quickly.

The arguments for splitting with 24/20 are:
1) By splitting to the 20-point, Red will be much better off if White hits back on Red's bar-point.
2) Red will probably be able to make the advanced anchor on the 20-point, and have a very solid position.
3) The split makes it difficult for White to play safely.
The downside to this play is that White may be able to enter and hit the blot on his 5-point.

The key to this position is that all White's hitting numbers on his 5-point (ace's, 3's, 5's) are also his entering numbers, so there is some duplication involved.
Additionally, Red doesn't mind a blot-hitting contest on White's side of the board, since Red has the stronger board.
24/20 13/7* accomplishes good things on both sides of the board, which is the deciding argument for splitting.


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