: 8/4 6/4
: 24/20(2) 13/9(2)
for Money Game
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• Red to play
• Money Game Equities
• Volatility after each play
24/22 13/7
- 0.362
W: 41.4% WG: 8.1% LG: 16.0% CL: - 0.255 CF: - 0.362
24/18 13/11
- 0.372 ( -0.010)
W: 42.0% WG: 7.1% LG: 16.2% CL: - 0.257 CF: - 0.372
24/18 6/4
- 0.383 ( -0.021)
W: 41.7% WG: 6.3% LG: 16.1% CL: - 0.266 CF: - 0.383
Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%
24/22 13/7
0.140
24/18 13/11
0.141
24/18 6/4
0.130
In general, the best approach for fighting against opponent's early 4-4 is to go after your own advanced anchor, which at least neutralizes the opponent's advantage.
This game plan argues for splitting to White's bar-point. Even though 24/18 walks into a triple shot, that is not too dangerous, since it isn't convenient for White to attack.
If Red chooses to split to the 18-point, 6/4 and 13/11 should be decent 2 to play. 6/4 looks to me a bit too conservative, while 13/11 is a nice developing play which duplicates White's 6's. Red has the stronger inner-board, so White isn't likely to leave his anchor.
Another approach is to split to the 22-point. This goes to where 6's are blocked, and I don't like my back checker(s) blocked by 6 early in the game. However, the play tries to get an advanced anchor with less risk compared to 24/18 and it also has the advantage of putting pressure on White's stripped 9-point.
Then, 13/7 is the only decent 6 to play. The bar-point has less value against White's advanced anchor, but the point is the point and it may come in handy in the future.
White costs his anchor in order to hit, and Red doesn't mind blot-hitting contest since he has the better board.
I slightly prefer this play over 24/18 13/11.
[Build: 0.14/122204]