: 8/4 6/4   : 24/22(2) 6/4(2)

Red to play       for Money Game


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' '2X '3X '3X ' ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  64  |
| ' '2X2O '4O|   | '2O ' ' '5X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 159, Red: 161

• Red to play        Luck Rate:  -  0.048


            • Money Game Equities

24/18 13/9 - 0.180
    W: 46.0%    WG: 10.7%    LG: 15.2%   CL: - 0.127    CF: - 0.180
24/20 13/7 - 0.181 ( -0.001)
    W: 45.8%    WG: 11.9%    LG: 14.9%   CL: - 0.116    CF: - 0.181
24/14 - 0.187 ( -0.007)
    W: 46.2%    WG:   9.1%    LG: 14.0%   CL: - 0.126    CF: - 0.187


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
24/18 13/9 0.166
24/20 13/7 0.161
24/14 0.127



Against White's advanced anchor, Red's game plan is to make one of his own anchor or run one of the back checkers to safety. Since Red hasn't got the advanced anchor, he doesn't want to get involved with a more complex position.  With this in mind, running to the 14-point looks natural.

The arguments for 24/18 13/9 are:
1) It is often right to stop on the enemy bar-point and bring a builder down in the early stages of the game rather than run all the way.
2) White's hitting 6's are duplicated.  The checker on the 9-point is very well-placed if it survives because Red's outer-board is weak now with the stripped 8-point.  If Red gets away with this play and can make the 9-point, Red's position will be greatly improved.

In spite of these arguments, I am still skeptical that 24/18 13/9 is best.
If White's 8-point were stripped, 24/18 would be more effective, but as it is, exposing another blot in the outer-board looks dangerous.

After 24/14 White's crushing rolls are much less damaging.
The wimpy 24/14 is my choice.


[122604/Build: 0.14]

























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