: 8/4 6/4   : 8/7(2) 6/5(2)

Red to play       for Money Game


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' '2X3X2X1X ' ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  53  |
|2X ' '2O '4O|   | '2O ' ' '5X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 163, Red: 161

• Red to play        Luck Rate:  - 0.012


            • Money Game Equities

24/21 13/8 - 0.116
    W: 46.9%  WG: 13.6%    LG: 15.3%   CL: - 0.077    CF: - 0.116
24/16 - 0.144 ( -0.028)
    W: 46.6%  WG: 12.3%    LG: 15.6%   CL: - 0.102    CF: - 0.144
8/3 6/3 - 0.233 ( -0.117)
    W: 44.0%  WG: 14.3%    LG: 17.2%   CL: - 0.150    CF: - 0.233


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
24/21 13/8 0.132
24/16 0.137
8/3 6/3 0.115



8/3 6/3 makes a valuable inner-board point.  With the 4-point already made, the 3-point is then a part of blockade with only one gap. However, the play has some serious drawbacks.
Making the 3-point loses the 8-point, leaving White four hitting numbers.
Red is ahead in the race, but White has started to build a strong blockade.  If Red doesn't get something done with his back men quickly, building all the points up-front won't help him.
Red is likely to lose the priming battle if he sits back on the 24-point.

The problem with 24/16 is that Red is in serious trouble when White hits, since with the hit, White is bringing a builder down in relative safety.
Even when White misses, Red's gains aren't huge.  White will probably split his back men, and it will be difficult for Red to get the blot to safety next roll.

24/21 is consistent with Red's position.
White has only three builders aimed at the 4-point, and one of these comes from the stripped bar-point, so if White makes the 4-point on Red's head it will cost him the bar-point most of the time.
With the almost equal board strength, Red doesn't mind a blot-hitting contest.  Also the checker on the 21-point puts pressure on the blot on White's 8-point if he fails to cover it.  13/8 brings a builder/attacker for Red's offense, which is additional plus for Red.


[Build: 0.14/120104]

























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