Response vs.
Opening
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• Hisako to play
• Money Game Equities
• Volatility after each play
24/23 24/20
- 0.213
44.8% 10.1% 0.5% 55.2% 14.8% 0.5% CL: - 0.153 CF: - 0.213
13/9 6/5
- 0.270 ( -0.057)
44.4% 11.4% 0.5% 55.6% 17.6% 1.2% CL: - 0.180 CF: - 0.270
24/20 6/5
- 0.275 ( -0.062)
44.1% 9.8% 0.4% 55.9% 17.2% 0.6% CL: - 0.193 CF: - 0.275
24/23 13/9
- 0.277 ( -0.064)
44.1% 11.5% 0.5% 55.9% 16.6% 0.6% CL: - 0.170 CF: - 0.277
13/8
- 0.318 ( -0.105)
42.5% 10.7% 0.5% 57.5% 16.4% 0.8% CL: - 0.209 CF: - 0.318
Full cubeful rollout, 468 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%
24/23 24/20
0.140
13/9 6/5
0.156
24/20 6/5
0.151
24/23 13/9
0.137
13/8
0.100
The decision of split or slot would be close at all scores.
I split (24/23 13/9) for money and at most scores and probably slot (13/9 6/5) at a GG score particularly against a player who doesn't defend backgames well.
I never make a middle eastern split with 24/23 24/20 except at a GG score.
According to SW4 rollouts (2-ply/precise, cube:3-ply, 10368 games) which G.Cattanach tried for P.Weaver's new book (not yet published), 24/23 13/9 is better than 24/23 24/20 by .011 for Money, while the middle eastern split is better than 24/23 13/9 by .024 at GS.
The problem with SW4 rollout at a GS score is that SW4 doesn't support "score based" plays during the rollout (SW3 has the option).
Chuck Bower tried GNU rollout at a GS score with higher settings (2-ply/50%, cubeless, 6026 games).
The rollout says it is a toss-up between 13/9 6/5 and 24/23 24/20 (no equity difference) and that 24/23 24/20 wins 0.4% more games but loses 0.4% more gammons.
[061904]