: 24/23 13/9
: 24/23 13/8
for Money Game
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• Red to play
• Money Game Equities
• Volatility after each play
9/8 6/1*
- 0.083
W: 47.9% WG: 12.1% LG: 13.8% CL: - 0.060 CF: - 0.083
23/18 9/8
- 0.088 ( -0.005)
W: 48.3% WG: 10.4% LG: 14.0% CL: - 0.069 CF: - 0.088
13/8 9/8
- 0.102 ( -0.019)
W: 47.6% WG: 11.6% LG: 14.0% CL: - 0.071 CF: - 0.102
23/22 13/8
- 0.124 ( -0.041)
W: 46.9% WG: 12.6% LG: 14.6% CL: - 0.085 CF: - 0.124
24/23 13/8
- 0.128 ( -0.045)
W: 46.3% WG: 12.5% LG: 13.3% CL: - 0.085 CF: - 0.128
23/22 6/1*
- 0.128 ( -0.045)
W: 46.8% WG: 12.5% LG: 15.1% CL: - 0.094 CF: - 0.128
24/23 6/1*
- 0.168 ( -0.085)
W: 45.5% WG: 12.0% LG: 14.5% CL: - 0.119 CF: - 0.168
Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%
9/8 6/1*
0.100
23/18 9/8
0.125
13/8 9/8
0.125
23/22 13/8
0.161
24/23 13/8
0.120
23/22 6/1*
0.124
24/23 6/1*
0.105
I don't like the plays which involve hitting loose on the ace-point. White doesn't have any particular threat in his offense, so Red doesn't need to make a tempo move.
Slotting White's bar-point with 23/18 looks to me the most productive 5. The downside to this play is that if White hits on his bar-point and Red fails to hit back, Red will be at a disadvantage.
On the other hand, if Red then hits back on White's bar-point or anchors with a 5-4 or a 3-2 (from the bar), Red may have the advantage.
Red's builder on his 9-point helps make the bar, 5 or 4-point. But if the game turns to a blot-hitting contest on White's side of the board (very likely), Red is unlikely to be able to build his board and the blot on the 9-point becomes a liability.
So, if Red chooses to split to White's bar-point, the most efficient ace has to be 9/8.
[Build: 0.14/010805]