: 24/23 13/9   : 24/23 13/8

Red to play       for Money Game


+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|1O1O ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '4O|
|   |
|      |  15  |
|1X1X ' ' '5O|   | '3O1O ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 161, Red: 162

• Red to play        Luck Rate:  - 0.207


            • Money Game Equities

9/8 6/1* - 0.083
    W: 47.9%  WG: 12.1%    LG: 13.8%   CL: - 0.060    CF: - 0.083
23/18 9/8 - 0.088 ( -0.005)
    W: 48.3%  WG: 10.4%    LG: 14.0%   CL: - 0.069    CF: - 0.088
13/8 9/8 - 0.102 ( -0.019)
    W: 47.6%  WG: 11.6%    LG: 14.0%   CL: - 0.071    CF: - 0.102
23/22 13/8 - 0.124 ( -0.041)
    W: 46.9%  WG: 12.6%    LG: 14.6%   CL: - 0.085    CF: - 0.124
24/23 13/8 - 0.128 ( -0.045)
    W: 46.3%  WG: 12.5%    LG: 13.3%   CL: - 0.085    CF: - 0.128
23/22 6/1* - 0.128 ( -0.045)
    W: 46.8%  WG: 12.5%    LG: 15.1%   CL: - 0.094    CF: - 0.128
24/23 6/1* - 0.168 ( -0.085)
    W: 45.5%  WG: 12.0%    LG: 14.5%   CL: - 0.119    CF: - 0.168


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
9/8 6/1* 0.100
23/18 9/8 0.125
13/8 9/8 0.125
23/22 13/8 0.161
24/23 13/8 0.120
23/22 6/1* 0.124
24/23 6/1* 0.105



I don't like the plays which involve hitting loose on the ace-point.  White doesn't have any particular threat in his offense, so Red doesn't need to make a tempo move.

Slotting White's bar-point with 23/18 looks to me the most productive 5.  The downside to this play is that if White hits on his bar-point and Red fails to hit back, Red will be at a disadvantage.
On the other hand, if Red then hits back on White's bar-point or anchors with a 5-4 or a 3-2 (from the bar), Red may have the advantage.

Red's builder on his 9-point helps make the bar, 5 or 4-point.  But if the game turns to a blot-hitting contest on White's side of the board (very likely), Red is unlikely to be able to build his board and the blot on the 9-point becomes a liability.
So, if Red chooses to split to White's bar-point, the most efficient ace has to be 9/8.


[Build: 0.14/010805]


























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