Response vs. Opening   for Money

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '2X ' '4X '2X ' ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  33  |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '5X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 159, Red: 167

• Red to play        Luck Rate:  + 0.266


            • Money Game Equities

24/21(2) 13/10(2) +0.220
    55.2%   14.2%  0.5%    44.8%     8.8%   0.3%   CL: +0.160    CF: +0.220
8/5(2) 6/3(2) +0.219 ( -0.001)
    54.1%   19.1%  0.9%    45.9%   13.5%   0.8%   CL: +0.140    CF: +0.219
24/21(2) 6/3(2) +0.206 ( -0.014)
    54.6%   14.5%  0.6%    45.4%     9.0%   0.4%   CL: +0.149    CF: +0.206
24/21(2) 8/5(2) +0.202 ( -0.018)
    53.9%   15.7%  0.5%    46.1%     9.2%   0.2%   CL: +0.147    CF: +0.202


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
24/21(2) 13/10(2) 0.088
8/5(2) 6/3(2) 0.154
24/21(2) 6/3(2) 0.095
24/21(2) 8/5(2) 0.128



If Red plays 8/5(2) 6/3(2) and White is able to build another point, Red's advantage will be minimal or non-existent.
The highest priority should be making the advanced anchor.  The 21-point anchor guarantees Red the advantage.
It also puts White's made 3-point somewhat out of play, while if Red stays back on the 24-point, White's 3-point is quite functional.

6/3(2) unstacks the 6-point, but the 3-point isn't so valuable for Red.  8/3(2) makes the best inner-board point, but it cramps Red's position.  It also gives up the 8-point, leaving White indirect shots.

13/10(2) is more solid.  It unstacks the mid-point and gives Red good balance of checkers, leaving White nothing.
24/21(2) 13/10(2) is my definite choice except at GG.

At GG, making two inner-board points is clear in my mind.  Extra gammon-win chances is clearly worth the risk of leaving White immediate 4 indirect shots.


[Build: 0.14/102804]



















   GG   
   DMP   
   GS   


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