Response vs. Opening   for Money

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' '1X4X '3X ' '1X5O|
|   |
|      |  33  |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White: 164, Red: 167

• Red to play     Luck Rate: +0.117


            • Money Game Equities

24/21(2) 8/5(2) +0.180
    53.5%   14.9%  0.6%    46.5%     9.1%   0.3%   CL: +0.133    CF: +0.180
24/21(2) 6/3(2) +0.156 ( -0.024)
    53.0%   13.4%  0.5%    47.0%     9.1%   0.3%   CL: +0.105    CF: +0.156
24/21(2) 13/10(2) +0.152 ( -0.028)
    53.5%   12.8%  0.4%    46.5%     9.0%   0.3%   CL: +0.108    CF: +0.152
8/5(2) 6/3(2) +0.143 ( -0.037)
    53.1%   18.0%  1.1%    46.9%   14.2%   0.7%   CL: +0.102    CF: +0.143


            Full cubeful rollout, 2592 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
24/21(2) 8/5(2) 0.086
24/21(2) 6/3(2) 0.091
24/21(2) 13/10(2) 0.081
8/5(2) 6/3(2) 0.117




Making two inner-board points with 8/5(2) 6/3(2) makes a good offense, but White is threatening to make his 5-point.
It looks to me that advancing the back checkers is vital here.  After 24/21(2), the choice should be between 13/10(2) and 8/5(2).
Normally it is wrong to break the 8-point to make the 5-point with a 3-3 response.  For example, against a 3-1 opening, 24/21(2) 13/10(2) would be a clear 3-3 response, since getting hit on the 8-point would be very bad.
In this position, however, with White having slotted his 5-point, 8/5(2) becomes much more attractive.
The reason is that if White rolls a seven and hits the blot on Red's 8-point, Red will have a lot of return shots at White's inner-board blot.  Still, the overall distribution after 24/21(2) 13/10(2) looks pretty nice.
I have a very slight preference for making the 5-point, but do not at all object to making the outfield point.













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