Response vs. Opening

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  23  |
|1X '1X ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: GNU_0.14 (Top): 160, Hisako (Bottom): 167

• Hisako to play     Luck Rate: - 0.077


            • Money Game Equities

13/11 6/3* - 0.106
    47.6%   12.8%  0.4%    52.4%   15.4%   1.0%   CL: - 0.080    CF: - 0.106
24/22 6/3* - 0.133 ( -0.027)
    46.6%   11.6%  0.4%    53.4%   14.4%   0.7%   CL: - 0.101    CF: - 0.133
24/21 13/11 - 0.151 ( -0.045)
    46.7%   11.6%  0.5%    53.3%   15.0%   0.6%   CL: - 0.100    CF: - 0.151
13/10 13/11 - 0.155 ( -0.049)
    46.0%   12.4%  0.6%    54.0%   15.3%   1.0%   CL: - 0.113    CF: - 0.155
6/3*/1* - 0.169 ( -0.063)
    46.1%   12.0%  0.4%    53.9%   15.1%   0.8%   CL: - 0.114    CF: - 0.169
24/22 13/10                   (468 games) - 0.192 ( -0.086)
    45.4%   11.8%  0.4%    54.6%   14.9%   0.6%   CL: - 0.125    CF: - 0.192
13/8                                (468 games) - 0.193 ( -0.087)
    45.6%   11.3%  0.3%    54.4%   15.3%   0.8%   CL: - 0.133    CF: - 0.193
24/21 24/22                   (468 games) - 0.198 ( -0.092)
    45.4%   10.6%  0.5%    54.6%   15.3%   0.6%   CL: - 0.140    CF: - 0.198


            Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%


            • Volatility after each play
13/11 6/3* 0.125
24/22 6/3* 0.124
24/21 13/11 0.137
13/10 13/11 0.124
6/3*/1* 0.139
24/22 13/10 0.151
13/8 0.113
24/21 24/22 0.118




Hitting on the 3-point is a must. Non-hitting plays simply allow White to play freely, and give him the initiative.
After hitting, the rollout shows 13/11 is a better 2 than 24/22 and I think this result is reasonable.
True, 24/22 tries a better anchor and White's 3's are duplicated, but White is not threatening much and Red would rather want to split to a better point for the anchoring purpose.
In spite of the rollout results, however, I still don't think playing the 2 with 13/11 is particularly productive.
A little positional gain produced by this play doesn't seem to compensate for the risk of giving White additional hitting 5-6's.
(Note that 6/3*/1* loses slightly fewer gammons than 13/11 6/3*)
The checker on the 3-point is still too deep to be effective as a blocking point anyway, so I would continue on to the ace-point.
Since Red doesn't have any particularly productive 2's to play, he might be better off keeping White busy for a roll.
















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