Response vs.
Opening
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• Hisako to play
• Money Game Equities
• Volatility after each play
13/11 6/3*
- 0.106
47.6% 12.8% 0.4% 52.4% 15.4% 1.0% CL: - 0.080 CF: - 0.106
24/22 6/3*
- 0.133 ( -0.027)
46.6% 11.6% 0.4% 53.4% 14.4% 0.7% CL: - 0.101 CF: - 0.133
24/21 13/11
- 0.151 ( -0.045)
46.7% 11.6% 0.5% 53.3% 15.0% 0.6% CL: - 0.100 CF: - 0.151
13/10 13/11
- 0.155 ( -0.049)
46.0% 12.4% 0.6% 54.0% 15.3% 1.0% CL: - 0.113 CF: - 0.155
6/3*/1*
- 0.169 ( -0.063)
46.1% 12.0% 0.4% 53.9% 15.1% 0.8% CL: - 0.114 CF: - 0.169
24/22 13/10 (468 games)
- 0.192 ( -0.086)
45.4% 11.8% 0.4% 54.6% 14.9% 0.6% CL: - 0.125 CF: - 0.192
13/8 (468 games)
- 0.193 ( -0.087)
45.6% 11.3% 0.3% 54.4% 15.3% 0.8% CL: - 0.133 CF: - 0.193
24/21 24/22 (468 games)
- 0.198 ( -0.092)
45.4% 10.6% 0.5% 54.6% 15.3% 0.6% CL: - 0.140 CF: - 0.198
Full cubeful rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%
13/11 6/3*
0.125
24/22 6/3*
0.124
24/21 13/11
0.137
13/10 13/11
0.124
6/3*/1*
0.139
24/22 13/10
0.151
13/8
0.113
24/21 24/22
0.118
Hitting on the 3-point is a must. Non-hitting plays simply allow White to play freely, and give him the initiative.
After hitting, the rollout shows 13/11 is a better 2 than 24/22 and I think this result is reasonable.
True, 24/22 tries a better anchor and White's 3's are duplicated, but White is not threatening much and Red would rather want to split to a better point for the anchoring purpose.
In spite of the rollout results, however, I still don't think playing the 2 with 13/11 is particularly productive.
A little positional gain produced by this play doesn't seem to compensate for the risk of giving White additional hitting 5-6's.
(Note that 6/3*/1* loses slightly fewer gammons than 13/11 6/3*)
The checker on the 3-point is still too deep to be effective as a blocking point anyway, so I would continue on to the ace-point.
Since Red doesn't have any particularly productive 2's to play, he might be better off keeping White busy for a roll.