• Score: Red (11-away), White (9-away)
   Posted by Neil Kazaross  [042004]

   Red on roll, cube decision

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' '3X3X2X3X1O ' '3O|
|1 |
|      |      |
|2O1X ' ' '4O|   | '3O ' '2O2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White (Top): 145, Red (Bottom): 127


In the semis of the Winner's bracket in Ohio's double elimination tourney I (White) was playing Pittsburg director Steve Hast when a bit of good fortune went Steve's way after he tossed a 62 and I bounced on his two-point board. So what is the correct cube action here ?

-- Neil Kazaross

This position is more dangerous for White than one can expect. White is well behind in the race and need to establish an anchor and likely hit to win.
White is ahead 2-0 and this is a 4-cube coming from a slightly weaker player so I (as White) felt I had plenty to think about. After taking a long (at least 1 minute) deep look at the position I estimated that my take equity vs an even player would be about 0.90 and decide to take this cube here at 4. I don't like to pass easily in matches based upon any perceived playing strength advantages.
The dice rewarded my decision. Steve rolled 3-2 (if I recall and played 16/11 and I properly played my 4-2 by making his 2-point with B/23 8/4. A few rolls later I hit with a direct shot that also covered my six-prime. I played on for the gammon, but he escaped that potential 8 point loss.
GNU's rollout indicates that I technically have a take here.
-- Neil Kazaross


GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, g11 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.443  ($ 0.427)
  W: 65.6%  WG: 18.6%    LG: 7.4%
1. Redouble, take 0.841
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.159)
3. No redouble 0.751 (- 0.090)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.447
  W: 66.9%  WG: 17.1%    LG: 6.7%
1. Redouble, take 0.851
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.149)
3. No redouble 0.783 (- 0.068)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, g11 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.485  ($ 0.468)
  W: 66.9%  WG: 19.1%    LG: 6.4%
1. Redouble, take 0.922
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.078)
3. No redouble 0.808 (- 0.114)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


2-ply/50%, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 905 games, g11 Met

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.481  ($ 0.458)
  W: 67.4%  WG: 18.5%    LG: 0.2%
1. Redouble, take 0.914
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.086)
3. No double 0.846 (- 0.068)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take

[Volatility: 0.172]




• Score: Red (9-away), White (11-away)
   Posted by Neil Kazaross  [070404]

   Red on roll, cube decision

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '2X1X '4X3X2X ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |      |
|1X2O2O2O '3O|   |1O ' ' '1O2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White (Top): 121, Red (Bottom): 128


In my first match in Novi I had this position vs Los Angeles expert Steve Sax.
-- Neil Kazaross

I would not cube this. You still have two men back and an open 5-point
-- Dean Gay

I overvalued this position OTB. Even with as many gammons as I win here and White's potential to whip it back to 8, I likely still wouldn't have much of a recube.
-- Neil Kazaross


GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, g11 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.339  ($ 0.352)
  W: 57.5%  WG: 34.1%    LG: 13.7%
1. No redouble 0.446
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.554)
3. Redouble, take 0.028 (- 0.418)
Proper cube action:   No redouble


Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.347
  W: 57.8%  WG: 32.3%    LG: 13.7%
1. No redouble 0.467
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.533)
3. Redouble, take 0.118 (- 0.349)
Proper cube action:   No redouble


GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, g11 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.414  ($ 0.426)
  W: 60.1%  WG: 35.2%    LG: 12.7%
1. No redouble 0.515
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.485)
3. Redouble, take 0.215 (- 0.300)
Proper cube action:   No redouble


2-ply/50% cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 239 games, g11 Met

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.403  ($ 0.431)
  W: 61.3%  WG: 34.8%    LG: 11.2%
1. No redouble 0.545
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.455)
3. Redouble, take 0.294 (- 0.251)
Proper cube action:   No redouble

[Volatility: 0.268]

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