Response vs. Opening

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  62  |
|1X1X ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: GNU_0.14 (Top): 161, Hisako (Bottom): 167

            • Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14

24/16 +0.157
    47.5%   10.4%  1.1%    52.5%   22.9%   3.1%   CL: +0.157
13/11 8/2* +0.155 ( -0.002)
    45.7%   12.3%  0.9%    54.3%   26.8%   5.2%   CL: +0.155
24/18 13/11 +0.144 ( -0.013)
    46.8%   10.6%  1.3%    53.2%   22.1%   3.5%   CL: +0.144
13/5 +0.140 ( -0.017)
    44.9%   12.1%  1.1%    55.1%   26.3%   5.2%   CL: +0.140

            Full rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Jacob/Trice Met


            • Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14


24/16 +0.162
    47.6%   10.5%  1.3%    52.4%   22.7%   2.9%   CL: +0.162
24/18 13/11 +0.155 ( -0.007)
    47.2%   10.6%  1.3%    52.8%   23.4%   3.8%   CL: +0.155
13/5 +0.154 ( -0.008)
    45.5%   12.5%  1.3%    54.5%   26.2%   5.2%   CL: +0.154
13/11 8/2* +0.139 ( -0.023)
    45.2%   12.1%  1.5%    54.8%   25.7%   5.6%   CL: +0.139

            Full rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Kazaross/Shaw Met


            • Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14

24/16 +0.157
    47.3%   10.6%  1.3%    52.7%   22.6%   2.5%   CL: +0.157
13/11 8/2* +0.152 ( -0.005)
    45.4%   12.7%  1.0%    54.6%   27.2%   6.0%   CL: +0.152
13/5 +0.151 ( -0.006)
    45.4%   12.4%  1.3%    54.6%   26.9%   4.2%   CL: +0.151
24/18 13/11 +0.144 ( -0.013)
    46.5%   10.9%  1.3%    53.5%   23.8%   3.0%   CL: +0.144

            Full rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Mec 26 Met



When you have an opening 6-2 to play, the generally preferred choice is 24/18 13/11.
The checker on the 11-point is relatively safe. Also, if your opponent hits the blot on his bar-point with an ace, that strips his
8-point. The extra development from 13/11 is worth leaving more blots and shots.

It is another story after your opponent has opened with 5-1, playing 24/23 13/8.
After Red plays 24/18 13/11 with the 6-2, the checker on the 11-point isn't so safe. White's 10's and 9's hit the blot.
Note that 6-3 and 5-4 are otherwise relatively unproductive numbers for White.
In addition, White has an extra spare on the 8-point, so hitting with an ace is more attractive for him.
If Red runs with 24/16 and White hits from the mid-point, White will be stripping his mid-point very early in the game.
24/16 should be the best play for money and at normal scores (particularly at GS).

Now, what is the best play at GG?
Hitting loose on the 2-point can't be right. This play will probably lead to the most gammonish positions for both sides, but the downside when the checker on the 2-point doesn't get recirculated or gets hit exactly at a wrong time doesn't look worth the risk.
13/5 starts the vital offensive 5-point but White can make or start an advanced anchor with a hit while Red hasn't splitted his backmen.
The downside to 24/18 13/11 which I mentioned above applies at this match score, too.
These leave a reasonable alternative of running with 24/16.
It looks to me as though Red should try to win a single point from this position with this roll.

























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