Pip counts: GNU_0.14 (Top): 161, Hisako (Bottom): 167
• Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14
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24/16 |
+0.157 |
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47.5% 10.4% 1.1% 52.5% 22.9% 3.1% CL: +0.157 |
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13/11 8/2* |
+0.155 ( -0.002) |
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45.7% 12.3% 0.9% 54.3% 26.8% 5.2% CL: +0.155 |
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24/18 13/11 |
+0.144 ( -0.013) |
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46.8% 10.6% 1.3% 53.2% 22.1% 3.5% CL: +0.144 |
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13/5 |
+0.140 ( -0.017) |
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44.9% 12.1% 1.1% 55.1% 26.3% 5.2% CL: +0.140 |
Full rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Jacob/Trice Met
• Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14
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24/16 |
+0.162 |
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47.6% 10.5% 1.3% 52.4% 22.7% 2.9% CL: +0.162 |
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24/18 13/11 |
+0.155 ( -0.007) |
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47.2% 10.6% 1.3% 52.8% 23.4% 3.8% CL: +0.155 |
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13/5 |
+0.154 ( -0.008) |
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45.5% 12.5% 1.3% 54.5% 26.2% 5.2% CL: +0.154 |
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13/11 8/2* |
+0.139 ( -0.023) |
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45.2% 12.1% 1.5% 54.8% 25.7% 5.6% CL: +0.139 |
Full rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Kazaross/Shaw Met
• Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14
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24/16 |
+0.157 |
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47.3% 10.6% 1.3% 52.7% 22.6% 2.5% CL: +0.157 |
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13/11 8/2* |
+0.152 ( -0.005) |
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45.4% 12.7% 1.0% 54.6% 27.2% 6.0% CL: +0.152 |
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13/5 |
+0.151 ( -0.006) |
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45.4% 12.4% 1.3% 54.6% 26.9% 4.2% CL: +0.151 |
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24/18 13/11 |
+0.144 ( -0.013) |
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46.5% 10.9% 1.3% 53.5% 23.8% 3.0% CL: +0.144 |
Full rollout, 1296 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Mec 26 Met
When you have an opening 6-2 to play, the generally preferred choice is 24/18 13/11.
The checker on the 11-point is relatively safe.
Also, if your opponent hits the blot on his bar-point with an ace, that strips his
8-point. The extra development from 13/11 is worth leaving more blots and shots.
It is another story after your opponent has opened with 5-1, playing 24/23 13/8.
After Red plays 24/18 13/11 with the 6-2, the checker on the 11-point isn't so safe.
White's 10's and 9's hit the blot.
Note that 6-3 and 5-4 are otherwise relatively unproductive numbers for White.
In addition, White has an extra spare on the 8-point, so hitting with an ace is more attractive for him.
If Red runs with 24/16 and White hits from the mid-point, White will be stripping his mid-point very early in the game.
24/16 should be the best play for money and at normal scores (particularly at GS).
Now, what is the best play at GG?
Hitting loose on the 2-point can't be right. This play will probably lead to the most gammonish positions for both sides, but the downside when the checker on the 2-point doesn't get recirculated or gets hit exactly at a wrong time doesn't look worth the risk.
13/5 starts the vital offensive 5-point but White can make or start an advanced anchor with a hit while Red hasn't splitted his backmen.
The downside to 24/18 13/11 which I mentioned above applies at this match score, too.
These leave a reasonable alternative of running with 24/16.
It looks to me as though Red should try to win a single point from this position with this roll.
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