Response vs. Opening

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X ' '5O|
|   |
|      |  51  |
|1X ' ' ' '5O|   |1X3O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: GNU_0.14 (Top): 157, Hisako (Bottom): 167

            • Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14

13/7* +0.224               (1296 games)
    48.5%   12.8%  1.2%    51.5%   22.7%   4.0%
8/7* 6/1* +0.206 ( -0.018) (1296 games)
    47.2%   13.3%  1.3%    52.8%   23.8%   4.1%
24/23 6/1* +0.117 ( -0.107)
24/23 13/8 +0.088 ( -0.136)

            Full rollout, 468 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Jacob/Trice Met


            • Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14

13/7* +0.220               (1296 games)
    48.4%   12.8%  1.2%    51.6%   23.4%   4.6%
8/7* 6/1* +0.207 ( -0.013) (1296 games)
    47.1%   13.6%  1.2%    52.9%   24.4%   4.9%
24/23 6/1* +0.104 ( -0.116)
24/23 13/8 +0.072 ( -0.148)

            Full rollout, 468 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Kazaross/Shaw Met


            • Equities at 2-away: Hisako, 1-away[Crawford]: GNU_0.14

13/7* +0.222               (1296 games)
    48.1%   13.1%  1.9%    51.9%   23.3%   3.5%
8/7* 6/1* +0.208 ( -0.014) (1296 games)
    47.2%   13.3%  1.1%    52.8%   24.3%   4.6%
24/23 6/1* +0.111 ( -0.111)
24/23 13/8 +0.091 ( -0.131)


            Full rollout, 468 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cubeless, using Mec 26 Met

            * * * Rollouts with higher ply settings * * *            

            Full cubeless rollout, 1296 games,
            Player White: First 14 plies: 2-ply/25%, Later plies 0-ply/expert
            Player Red: First 14 plies: 2-ply/50%, Later plies 0-ply/expert, using Kazaross/Shaw Met

8/7* 6/1* +0.204
    46.6%   14.0%  1.5%    53.4%   24.7%   4.8%
13/7* +0.202 ( -0.002)
    47.3%   12.9%  1.2%    52.8%   25.3%   4.3%


   Money   
   GS   
   3a3a   


My guess was that the double-hit was definitely right at the pure GG score.
The extra tempo gained by the double-hit gives Red more attacking chances since White has a blot on his 9-point.
If Red chooses to hit only one checker White can make the 9-point with non-hitting 4's.
The 9-point is more valuable than the 10 or 11-point, so the double-hit is more likely to be right here than in the position where White makes a split-and-build play with the opening 6-2 or 6-3.
In addition, the lucky blitz seems to have more value and the gammon-lose when attacking backfires doesn't matter at this score.
However, 0-ply rollouts indicate 13/7* is slightly better, which I strongly doubt. I guess this is probably because 0-ply doesn't play aggressively enough to win a gammon.
2-ply rollouts show it is a toss-up between the two plays and I believe that 8/7* 6/1* is definitely correct at this match score.



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