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GNU_0.14 2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met
| Cube action equity |
| Eval |
Cubeless equity: |
0.387 |
| |
W: 62.9% WG: 18.3% LG: 7.6% |
| 1. |
Double, take |
0.898 |
|
| 2. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.102) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.778 |
(- 0.120) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |
|
Snowie_4 3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met
| Cube action equity |
| Eval |
Cubeless equity: |
0.389 |
| |
W: 63.3% WG: 19.3% LG: 7.6% |
| 1. |
Double, take |
0.957 |
|
| 2. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.043) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.827 |
(- 0.129) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |
|
GNU_0.14 3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met
| Cube action equity |
| Eval |
Cubeless equity: |
0.450 |
| |
W: 64.9% WG: 19.3% LG: 7.2% |
| 1. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
|
| 2. |
Double, take |
1.032 |
(+0.032) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.864 |
(- 0.136) |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |
|
0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 1296 games, Kazaross Met
| Cube action equity |
| Rollout |
Cubeless equity: |
0.432 |
| |
W: 63.8% WG: 17.9% LG: 9.9% |
| 1. |
Double, take |
0.938 |
|
| 2. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.062) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.811 |
(- 0.127) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |
Rollout for Money
Snowie_3 2-ply/huge, cubeless, Full, 462 games
| Cube action equity |
| Rollout |
Cubeless equity: |
0.398 |
| |
W: 65.0% WG: 17.2% LG: 7.4% |
| 1. |
No double |
0.569 |
|
| 2. |
Double, take |
0.540 |
(- 0.029) |
| 3. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.431) |
| Proper cube action: No double | |
[Volatility: 0.179]
• Score: Red (2-away), White (3-away) Posted by Robert-Jan Veldhuizen [080404]
Red on roll, cube decision
|
Pip counts: White (Top): 121, Red (Bottom): 104
For money, I think there's enough market-losers and a good racing advantage to double this, but still an easy take from the 20-point anchor and not many gammon losses.
White also has an ugly spare on his 2-point.
Since gammons are still part of the equity after doubling here for money, there might be more market-losers than at the -2,-3 score where gammons don't count anymore after a double by Leader.
-- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen
D/T for money but likely no double (it's close) at this score where Red's doubling window opens much higher.
-- Neil Kazaross
Gammons are pretty unlikely so if it's a double for money, as you suggest, then it must be a double at this score as well.
I'm just not sure if it's a double for money.
Red is only up 17 pips with the mid and the 10-point to clear.
On the other hand, White's board isn't ready to contain a hit checker and he's got that awkward spare on the deuce-point.
I would estimate White's cubeless chances to be in the high 20's, 3% or so above what he needs to take.
I don't think that is close enough to double in this position.
I only see 7 big market losers: double 2's or higher and 5-3.
Red needs a few more than this.
-- John O'Hagan
I suspect this is technically a very close double, but I would take a roll.
I don't think Red loses his market by much very often, and many players will take later when they shouldn't.
-- Dean Gay
Looks like with the 5-point anchor, Red wins just 3% gammons and Red also might lose a gammon.
The net effect is that the money TP would be raised by about 1%, like from 22 to 23%, so still clearly lower than at the score.
The rollout result just has it as a small double for money.
-- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen
|
GNU_0.14 2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met
| Cube action equity |
| Eval |
Cubeless equity: |
0.440 |
| |
W: 70.5% WG: 3.0% LG: 2.1% |
| 1. |
No double |
0.776 |
|
| 2. |
Double, take |
0.647 |
(- 0.129) |
| 3. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.224) |
| Proper cube action: No double | |
|
Snowie_4 3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met
| Cube action equity |
| Eval |
Cubeless equity: |
0.454 |
| |
W: 72.0% WG: 3.7% LG: 2.5% |
| 1. |
No double |
0.852 |
|
| 2. |
Double, take |
0.779 |
(- 0.074) |
| 3. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.148) |
| Proper cube action: No double | |
|
GNU_0.14 3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met
| Cube action equity |
| Eval |
Cubeless equity: |
0.487 |
| |
W: 72.2% WG: 3.6% LG: 2.0% |
| 1. |
Double, take |
0.779 |
|
| 2. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.221) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.729 |
(- 0.050) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |
|
0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 1296 games, Kazaross Met
| Cube action equity |
| Rollout |
Cubeless equity: |
0.457 |
| |
W: 72.3% WG: 9.5% LG: 3.9% |
| 1. |
Double, take |
0.777 |
|
| 2. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.223) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.730 |
(- 0.047) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |
Rollout for Money
0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 2592 games
| Cube action equity |
| Rollout |
Cubeless equity: |
0.449 |
| |
W: 72.3% WG: 3.0% LG: 1.9% |
| 1. |
Double, take |
0.744 |
|
| 2. |
Double, pass |
1.000 |
(+0.256) |
| 3. |
No double |
0.727 |
(- 0.172) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |
[Volatility: 0.099]
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