Score: Red (3-away), White (2-away)
   Posted by Mary Hickey  [071304]

   Red on roll, cube decision

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' '1X '5X2O3X ' ' '3O|
|   |
|      |      |
|1X '1X ' '5O|   |2O3O ' ' '4X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White (Top): 156, Red (Bottom): 143


White opened with 6-3: 24/18 13/10, Red responded with 6-6: 24/18(2) 13/7*(2), followed by 6-3: B/22 10/4.
-- Mary Hickey

Borderline double/no double for money (probably just shy of strong enough), and I wouldn't cube since I can often get a cube error later. At -3-2 this is a VERY clear cube.
-- Neil Kazaross

Double/take at this score and for Money. This might be a bit thin for money, but Red's position is solid and it will be some time before White can turn things around.
-- Dean Gay

At the actual score it is probably a close take because of gammon value. For money, I also double.
-- Marty Storer

This would be a huge double at 3a2a, with this much gammon chances and White's take-point being higher than normal (26.7%). It's probably a borderline take/pass at the score.
I didn't double but it worked out OK. I rolled 5-3, making the 3-point, followed by White's 6-5: B/14.
-- Mary Hickey


GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.387
  W: 62.9%  WG: 18.3%    LG: 7.6%
1. Double, take 0.898
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.102)
3. No double 0.778 (- 0.120)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.389
  W: 63.3%  WG: 19.3%    LG: 7.6%
1. Double, take 0.957
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.043)
3. No double 0.827 (- 0.129)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.450
  W: 64.9%  WG: 19.3%    LG: 7.2%
1. Double, pass 1.000
2. Double, take 1.032 (+0.032)
3. No double 0.864 (- 0.136)
Proper cube action:   Double, pass


0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 1296 games, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.432
  W: 63.8%  WG: 17.9%    LG: 9.9%
1. Double, take 0.938
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.062)
3. No double 0.811 (- 0.127)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


   Rollout for Money

Snowie_3  2-ply/huge, cubeless, Full, 462 games

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.398
  W: 65.0%  WG: 17.2%    LG: 7.4%
1. No double 0.569
2. Double, take 0.540 (- 0.029)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.431)
Proper cube action:   No double

[Volatility: 0.179]




Score: Red (2-away), White (3-away)
   Posted by Robert-Jan Veldhuizen  [080404]

   Red on roll, cube decision

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| '3X ' '2X4X1X1X ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |      |
| '2O2O '2X4O|   | '3O '2O '2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White (Top): 121, Red (Bottom): 104


For money, I think there's enough market-losers and a good racing advantage to double this, but still an easy take from the 20-point anchor and not many gammon losses.
White also has an ugly spare on his 2-point. Since gammons are still part of the equity after doubling here for money, there might be more market-losers than at the -2,-3 score where gammons don't count anymore after a double by Leader.
-- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen

D/T for money but likely no double (it's close) at this score where Red's doubling window opens much higher.
-- Neil Kazaross

Gammons are pretty unlikely so if it's a double for money, as you suggest, then it must be a double at this score as well. I'm just not sure if it's a double for money. Red is only up 17 pips with the mid and the 10-point to clear.
On the other hand, White's board isn't ready to contain a hit checker and he's got that awkward spare on the deuce-point.
I would estimate White's cubeless chances to be in the high 20's, 3% or so above what he needs to take. I don't think that is close enough to double in this position. I only see 7 big market losers: double 2's or higher and 5-3. Red needs a few more than this.
-- John O'Hagan

I suspect this is technically a very close double, but I would take a roll. I don't think Red loses his market by much very often, and many players will take later when they shouldn't.
-- Dean Gay

Looks like with the 5-point anchor, Red wins just 3% gammons and Red also might lose a gammon. The net effect is that the money TP would be raised by about 1%, like from 22 to 23%, so still clearly lower than at the score.
The rollout result just has it as a small double for money.
-- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen


GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.440
  W: 70.5%    WG: 3.0%    LG: 2.1%
1. No double 0.776
2. Double, take 0.647 (- 0.129)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.224)
Proper cube action:   No double


Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.454
  W: 72.0%    WG: 3.7%    LG: 2.5%
1. No double 0.852
2. Double, take 0.779 (- 0.074)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.148)
Proper cube action:   No double


GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.487
  W: 72.2%    WG: 3.6%    LG: 2.0%
1. Double, take 0.779
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.221)
3. No double 0.729 (- 0.050)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 1296 games, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.457
  W: 72.3%    WG: 9.5%    LG: 3.9%
1. Double, take 0.777
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.223)
3. No double 0.730 (- 0.047)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


   Rollout for Money

0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 2592 games

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.449
  W: 72.3%    WG: 3.0%    LG: 1.9%
1. Double, take 0.744
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.256)
3. No double 0.727 (- 0.172)
Proper cube action:   Double, take

[Volatility: 0.099]

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