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UAAP - JULY ENTRIES
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POSTSCRIPT: July
Larry's collegiate career is over. It's really sad to see Fonacier's UAAP career end like that. He's a talented player who's played a crucial role in the success of the Blue Eagles in the past seasons. He blocked the Cardona shot in 2002 when the Eagles won the pivotal Game 1 en route to the title. Last year, he was the only one willing to take the big shots during the clutch against FEU--more than that, he displayed an unfathomable desire to win. This season, he is the King Eagle, leading the Ateneo to a 4-0 start (the game against UP was decided even before his injury). But beyond his basketball skills and spirit, Larry is a quiet player who lets his game speak for itself--like a Tim Duncan who rarely shows emotions but has an innate competitiveness and drive to win. He'll definitely go down in the halls of Loyola as one of the best Ateneo players of our time.
A fitting end(?). But maybe Larry's exit, as disheartening as it is, is a fitting end to his college career. The guy who choked in the 2001 Finals against La Salle--when Joe Lipa used him instead of Rainier (Sison)--which would've brought the title to Loyola 1 year earlier. The guy who never took more than 15 shots per game, even though his team was in dire needs of offense in last year's Finals. The guy who, as much as he wanted to win, might have not shown enough emotions to rally the team last season. The guy who never actually had to lead his team for an entire season. The guy who always played Pippen to somebody else's Jordan. The guy who, in the BJ Manalo debacle in the pre-season, never cleared what the real score was. The guy whose offense speaks as much as his personality--that being quiet. Maybe, as we look at his entire UAAP career, there's some sense in the way his career ended: a freak injury in a non-bearing game against a very weak team, which no one will remember 3-4 years down the road (except us, Ateneans). He didn't go down shooting. He didn't have to. Like his quiet 21 points in the opener against La Salle [on July 11], it only seems fitting that he ends his final season as he started it--quietly.
Valid excuse. With Larry out for the rest of the UAAP campaign, the Eagles' first defeat of the season might just be days away--which might be only the first of many losses. Larry really means much to the team; he and L.A. Tenorio are the team's one-two punch. Losing him deals a big blow in Ateneo's championship aspirations. Although all is not lost, I just can't imagine AdMU winning it all without Larry. But they weren't even touted by oddsmakers to make the Finals even with Larry. So the Hail Mary team surprising everyone else might just be the order of the day. One thing's for sure though, if the Eagles go down--along with my predictions--they do so because they didn't have Fonacier (a hypothesis contrary to fact but is valid nonetheless). I still believe that Ateneo will win the UAAP title (yeah, I definitely do, being in my last year here at the academe and all). But if ever they fall short, I'll always have the temporary escape of "what could've been," and a lifelong reasoning of "we didn't have Larry."
Another implication. I already discussed some of the possible effects of Fonacier's absence in my article yesterday (see below). I'll just add another one, and I must say that it's not favorable for the Blue Eagles. The loss of Larry is in itself an unfavorable event for Ateneo. But losing him this early in the season makes it an even more unfavorable one. My theory is this: a team losing its marquee player to injury will either go on a winning streak or play at the level of talent left on the team. If the team goes on a winning streak, however, they can only do so for a good number of games, say, 3-5 games. This is why losing Larry 4 games into the season scares me. They might be able to beat Adamson on Saturday or FEU on the first round finale, but when the emotions and motivation [of losing their star player] wane, will the team have anything left? Imagine if Larry got injured in the final game of the eliminations. Even if the team goes into the Final Four without him and has to make quick-fix adjustments, it remains highly possible that they'll win it all just by being emotionally-charged, riding on the momentum of a player's loss (which I call the "Willis Reed effect"). But such emotional ecstacy is bound to end--and when it does, the team goes back to mediocrity. That's why there's the possibility that with Larry's loss [this early], the Eagles might not be able to sustain their momentum a couple of games into the second round (if ever they go on a winning streak). Yes, losing Larry this early will give the coaching staff ample amount of time to adjust. But it might also drain the players' motivations even before the playoffs start. Well, it's a catch-22, and I just hope that Ateneo gets the good side of the coin.
Ateneo stays undefeated. The Blue Eagles whipped the UP Fighting Maroons, 72-63, to stay atop the leaderboard of the 67th UAAP Season. However, the win was spoiled by the loss of main man Larry Fonacier and resurging Magnum Membrere due to injuries.
All is not lost. Larry Fonacier’s injury looked really bad. It was a no-contact play, and his left leg just gave out. There was no official diagnosis as of this writing, but I think it could either be an ACL injury or a pulled hamstring. An ACL tear could sideline him for the rest of the season, while a pulled hamstring would take 2-4 weeks to heal. I definitely hope it’s the latter, cos it is very unlikely that the Eagles could go all the way without him. Meanwhile, Membrere had contusions on his left knee cap, which is not really a severe injury. He should be back in the game against Adamson on Saturday-which I deem as a must-win for the Eagles, both to stomp their domination and to prove my predictions right. Right now, it is impossible to tell how the Eagles would respond to the loss of Larry. They could either go on a downward spiral or keep on piling up the wins, as they did when Tenorio went down in 2002 (they won 8 straight). But during Tenorio’s injury, they had Rico Villanueva and Rich Alvarez to carry the load. Now, they only have Tenorio. And from what I saw in the 2nd half versus UP, it seems that Badjie and Ken Barracosso will be the ones to fill the slack. The problem, they can’t. I wonder why Arespacochaga would go with these guys. Can’t he see that Badjie is a shoot-first, shoot-second, shoot-all-the-time player? Whenever this guy makes a basket, he seems to turn into a bull, and the ring into a red cloth. As for K-Bar, he is an inexperienced rookie and a skinny inside player who has not developed a perimeter game. As funny as it sounds, I think J-Wich is a better player, being a coach’s son and all. Unless JC Intal starts showing his wares from the perimeter, the Eagles are in for a tough stretch. But Ateneo is Ateneo, you know. They weren’t expected to start 4-0 this season, but they did. With or without Larry, you just have to keep the faith. I do.
Could I be wrong? Adamson beat La Salle last Saturday. UST got blown out by FEU. I guess all the people that have been reading my webpage would presume that I’m already re-thinking my Final Four predictions. I must admit that I am-but without really putting much thought into it. It’s still too early for me to make the call. I’ll start re-thinking my predictions seriously after the first round. For now, I’ll stick to my version of the Final Four, cos I’m really unimpressed by the entire Adamson team. And the fact is, they really haven’t beaten anyone-DLSU beat themselves, they lost to FEU, they have yet to play AdMU, which will likely be without Larry. How they play against UST will probably be the deciding factor of whether or not I was wrong in excluding the Falcons from the Final Four. Guess I’m right until proven wrong… or something like that. Ateneo thrashes UE. No, they didn't just thrash them, the Eagles devoured the Warriors alive, 74-50. I wasn't able to watch the game cos we had an exam, but a blowout was just the kind of win I expected. Last Saturday, when UE beat UP, me buddies told me that Paolo Hubalde was good, after pouring 20 against the Maroons. I told 'em that he was able to score only cos UP was very weak. I told 'em that against Ateneo, Hubalde (and the rest of UE for that matter) won't be able to do a darn thing. And the fact is, they weren't. Now 3-0. With back-to-back double-digit wins under their belt, AdMU is looking really good. Obviously, some people underestimated the Blue Eagles--only to be proven wrong. I can't wait for the game against Adamson cos I get the feeling that the Eagles will be at their finest against the Falcons. I think they will make Adamson relive their 0-30 streak all over again--and stick it up Menor's ass.Just the results that I was hoping for. Ateneo drubs UST; La Salle stuns FEU. The Blue Eagles pounced on the hapless Tigers, winning 81-70, while the Archers downed the highly fancied Tamaraws, 69-54, in the match-ups of potential Final Four teams last weekend.
Don't believe the preseason rankings--ADMU should not be ranked lower than #2. As expected the Eagles won handily, although there were a lot of questionable moves on the part of coach Sandy Arespacochaga--like pulling out Magnum Membrere when he just scored 2 straight buckets, and not replacing Bugia when he had 4 or 5 (exaggerating a bit) straight turnovers--that allowed UST to close the gap (a bit). JC Intal continued the breakout game he was supposed to have last week but was cut short by foul trouble against DLSU, finishing with 14 points and 7 rebounds. Or maybe I should say breakout season? All he needs is a decent perimeter shot (at least like what KG Canaleta has) to be the premier small forward in the UAAP. Larry had a subpar shooting game, but he delivered when the team needed it most. A big plus was Johann Uichico (J-Wich, the (SMB) coach's son). I tell you, me and my friends were roaring like hell when he hit 5 straight points in the 2nd quarter. We've been touting him as the Dirk Nowitzki of the UAAP--of course, we never meant it--and those outside shots sort of vindicated our "projection" (yeah, we call him the "J-Wich Project" now).
FEU is not unbeatable--another Blue-and-Green October?
DLSU used a phenomenal 4th quarter to beat
FEU. I think they felt that they shouldn't have blown their 15-point lead against
Ateneo, so they won by 15. Coincidence? Definitely. The Archers got lucky
at the right time, and got some help from the refs
(Arwind's 5th foul was a no-contact). In any case, FEU lost--not only the game but potentially their confidence and their
fearsomeness image in the eyes of opposing teams. And in any case, it's good for
Ateneo, as every FEU loss could give them a more favorable seeding come playoff time. In fact, this early, they're the only team that can sweep the entire season (obviously). Well,
it seems that Ateneo is poised to have a good season, and the La Salle victory sends a message that the season is not lost--and FEU is not unbeatable.
I hate my predictions to be wrong, but if AdMU can finish #1 and have FEU
and La Salle slug it out in the Final Four, it's all the better for us. Looks like the third
Ateneo-La Salle Finals in 4 years is in the offing.
Ateneo beats La Salle. Ateneo-La Salle. It never fails to make the headlines. And nowadays, whether academics or sports, Ateneo always emerges as the victor (we used to suck in sports, just so ya know).
After being down by as much as 15 in the 3rd quarter, and 9 in the start of the
4th, the Ateneo Blue Eagles came from behind to
beat La Salle by three, 75-72. T'was a great game, primarily because my team
won. More importantly, it sends a message to opponents, critics, and assholes like
Dominic Menor to
never write off the Eagles. The Usual and Some Surprise Suspects. I honestly thought that we were done for after La Salle responded to Magnum Membrere's 7 point spurt with a 7-nil run of their own in the 3rd quarter. But unexpected heroes stepped up in the 4th. Badjie del Rosario, who cost the eagles the title last year, came up big and surprised everyone with a trifecta and a end-to-end layup plus a couple of rebounds. Membrere also had crucial offensive rebounds down the stretch for the undersized Ateneo squad. And solid free throw shooting sealed the deal for AdMU.As usual, Larry Fonacier delivered a quiet 21 points and was perfect 12/12 from the line. Some interesting "surprises" in the game were the return of LA Tenorio's drive-and-dish/finish game and JC Intal's good mid-range game, hitting shots off the bank, although foul trouble cut his breakout game short (see article below to see why I said "surprises"). Bugia was solid, although it was evident that he doesn't rebound well. However, their prized rookie Japeth Aguilar went down with appendicitis in the morning right before the game (he must've been too excited/tensed that his stomach churned up like hell). I've seen him play in an exhibition match, and this guy can really throw it down. He won't be available until the 2nd round, but we can manage. Dominic Menor--The Proverbial Asshole. With the win, I'd like to take a shot at Dominic Menor, who wrote all those articles in the UAAP primer published by Today (a total of 4 pages and he wrote all the articles in it--I bet he's a fookin' La Sallite, what an asshole). He said an FEU-DLSU Final is inevitable. That the only team that could disrupt that meeting is Adamson (obviously because head coach Luigi Trillo--who, by the way, has one great wife in Atenean Ria Tanjuatco--is a DLSU alumni (yeah, I remember that he was the varsity's 12th man back then, and he was a crowd favorite--the same way Dudut Jaworski was in Ginebra)). What the shit's with that? Like that's gonna happen. I don't even think Adamson will even make the Final Four and La Salle is not even assured of the number 3 seed (he says they'll be number 2).What I say is this: Ateneo vs FEU in the Finals. In the Final Four, FEU will be the number 1 seed, Ateneo #2, La Salle #3, and UST #4. In the Ateneo-La Salle showdown, AdMU will not need a second game to dispose of La Salle (like they did last year). As for the Finals, it's really hard to say... but given my biases, I'll have to say Ateneo in 3. Note:
I'm not really backing down on what I said earlier--the previous article (see
below) is a theoretical analysis of the Eagles' chances, an objective one at
that. However, I intentionally did not put the reasons why the Eagles would win,
since that would be very subjective. But come prediction time, you know where I
stand--I keep the faith. Why Ateneo [theoretically] won't win it all
As much as I'd like the Ateneo hoist its 2nd UAAP crown in 3 years, it seems that a 3rd bridesmaid finish in 4 years is the more likely (and realistic) possibility. Why do I say that the Blue Eagles will not win it all this year? Here are some reasons (in no particular order): Rich Alvarez is gone. The Blue Eagles fell short last year with the 2-time MVP on the fold. How could they manage to win it this year without him? The answer is they most probably couldn't. They don't have anybody in the caliber of the PBA top pick. Doug Kramer? Let's just say he's a poor man's Alvarez. He doesn't have Alvarez's athleticism, rebounding skills, and offensive talent (as much as Alvarez's shooting form looks awkward, Doggy's is even worse). Larry can't carry 'em all. As good as Larry Fonacier is, it would be difficult for him to carry the entire team through the entire season. If you look at his game, you'll notice that he is not an explosive player. He can give you 15-20 pts every night, but you rarely see him score 4-5 straight buckets in a stretch. He just doesn't have the explosiveness of a Yap or a Ritualo (though his shooting form is much better than the two). He needs another scorer to complement his game. _C Intal still can't find his J. Ateneo expected Intal to develop at least a decent mid-range jumpshot, if not all the way out to the 3-point area. They were hoping that he'll replace Wesley Gonzalez's inside-outside game. So far, they're still hoping. LA and Magnum are not playing "their game". L.A. Tenorio and Magnum Membrere were big in the 2001 Finals against La Salle. Had it not been for Big Rico's awful play in Game 3, the Eagles could've won it all. LA still gives you solid numbers, but you can't help but miss his drive-and-dish game during his rookie season. It's great that he has developed a reliable outside shot, but he doesn't go to the hole as much as a player of his speed should. His perfect-angle off-the-glass layups are sorely missed. As for Magnum, it seems that he hadn't regained his stroke since being injured in 2002. He was a better threat from trey than Larry was in 2001, but he is struggling right now. There are times that he looks like the NCAA juniors MVP, but most of the time it's obvious that he lacks confidence: it's all in his mind. FEU is still the fittest. The team to beat this season is FEU. They have the same core group as they had last season when they whipped ADMU's ass in Finals. Last year's de facto MVP Arwind Santos has developed a decent three-point shot, making him and the Tamaraws a stronger team than they were last year. With the Blue Eagles fielding a weaker team than last year's runner-up squad,... you get the picture. Badjie, Badjie, Badjie. F*ck that guy. Or f*ck the coach. I still don't know the logic behind playing Badjie del Rosario as the 6th man. He's a power forward in a point guard's body. It just wouldn't work. The Eagles won 8 straight games when he was on the IL last year. They struggled and basically handed FEU the title when he came back. The coach has changed, but he still logs a lot of minutes (aren't coaches supposed to study the team's plus/minus stats?) So you're just left wondering why.
Why??!!
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