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theAuthor: Arrival at the Daily Mirror forums, thread: Madeleine. Contributions

As there now appears to be increasing conversation\discussion, please refer back to original posts\forums, links (clicks) provided.

14th July 2007

Saturday 14th 3 am

Greetings to the Forum

Some Thoughts Relating to Events Occurring at or near Praia da Luz, Portugal, around 3 May 2007

Introduction

Would you permit this writer to introduce himself? He has been following the present thread, together with related ones, for some time. Until now, ashamed to relate, he has never been tempted to post � or even register. Worse than this, even as he types these words, he is as yet a thread/post virgin in any forum. Would you, then, perhaps indulge him a little?

Incidentally, theAuthor is not a novelist; the nic (has he got that right?) merely refers to the fact that he has chosen to write in the third person.

For the present, at least, it is not the author�s intention to offer any conjectures relating to why, how, or whether what appears to have happened has happened. Likewise, he will not, primarily, be concerned with analysing or disputing the theories of others; his aims (see next post) are of a somewhat different nature. This contribution will start slowly, and may prompt thoughts of �So what!�, �Where�s this going?�, or �We know that - that was posted weeks ago�. However, If you, as members of the forum for your part, are prepared to bear with the author for a little while, he for his part will do his best to provide you with some original, and (hopefully) interesting input. Be forewarned though, do not expect miracles; he has no simple answers. He will, however, seek to bring some light to bear on aspects of this extraordinary affair. The meaning of the words in bold will become apparent as these postings progress.

Oh gentles, please don�t groan, or switch off; this poster isn�t peddling religion, clairvoyance, or mysticism � only reason, linked to empiricism.

The author is aware that external events may, even now, be moving so fast as to make his snail-pace thought-processes redundant (careful with that word, O author!). Anyway, this present offering constitutes the start of his imperfections.

Second Post: Saturday 14th July

Many thanks to flowery, meadow and kate for your welcome. If the author has missed anyone out, please accept his apologies - thanks none-the-less. It is his intention to try to post a substantive contribution (as opposed to dialogue such as this) once a day, probably towards the end of the evening, or in the early hours. Incidentally, please don�t expect too much interactive chat, the time that he can afford to devote to the forum is circumscribed. Also, being a rookie, his forum skills are at a very low level � he only learned how to post in the early hours of this morning, and even then very nearly started a new topic, which was certainly not his intention. None-the-less, he�s willing to learn.

The author�s approach is somewhat different to other members, in that he is seeking to synthesise a body of what is knowable in relation to MMc�s absence. Such a construction requires a sound foundation, and it the latter that he is attempting to create at present. It is, he regrets, slow and somewhat arduous work.

Incidentally, please note there will be more in relation to the use of that term, absence, in tonight�s posting, which (believe it or not) amongst other things will be concerned with some aspects of forensic philosophy with special reference to forensic semantics.

The slow progress may be frustrating, but rest assured, it will lead somewhere. Please note, that, in the author�s opinion, it is highly improbable that any input from him could lead to the discovery of the whereabouts of an alive MMc. If he had any information that could lead to that outcome, then this somewhat ponderous and detached approach would, of course, be completely inappropriate.

By the way, the author is not a tease!

- It has not that escaped the author�s attention that this latest missive is liable to generate further replies of the type �But you haven�t said anything!�

Patience! O gentles - patience! It�s true - you ain�t heard nothing yet.

Third post

Greetings to the Forum

Some Thoughts Relating to Events Occurring at or near Praia da Luz, Portugal, around 3 May 2007

The Author�s Approach

The methodology is essentially one of analysis, followed by synthesis:

� of what facts, if any, can we be reasonably certain, and, in the event that any such facts might exist,

� in what direction do they point, or, equally importantly,

� what questions do they raise?

The author�s starting point is that he knows very little. However, he is not a sceptical philosopher incapable of being convinced of anything. If after evaluation something seems reasonably true then he will allow it to be incorporated into working hypotheses albeit with reservations.

Additionally, the which may be of particular interest to members of the forum, the author will seek to bring into the public domain new information, pertinent to the deliberations of this thread. � But patience O gentles.

1. Aspects of Forensic Philosophy with Special Reference to Forensic Semantics

A Descriptor for the Events

Now, in order to able to refer to what has occurred, a descriptor, or label, is required. To avoid built-in prejudice, this should be as neutral as possible. Clearly, terms such as abduction, kidnapping and snatching are pregnant with assumptions. It is self-evident that their use implies the acceptance of facts that have yet to be admitted.

Many members of this forum commonly use the term disappearance, but perhaps surprisingly, this has difficulties of its own. Employing the term disappearance implies that Madeleine McCann (Mac) was present the instant before the time postulated for her disappearance. That is to say, even the adoption of the term disappearance implies the acceptance of facts yet to be determined. Another, perhaps more serious objection, is that the term disappearance implies that some sort of action or activity has occurred. Use of this term thus encourages the assumption as being true, facts that we have yet to admit, or even evaluate.

The term missing is better, but being an adjective rather than a noun, is not easy to use in this regard

Because of these objections, to begin with at least, the author will refer to the events as MMc�s absence. Now, this term is not perfect, and its use is open, in part at least, to one of the objections discussed above (the presence/absence problem). It is however, broadly neutral, and, provided that the above-mentioned reservation is borne in mind, seems to the writer to be reasonably acceptable.

Evaluation of the above

What have we learned from the above? Not much, the reader might think, but we have learned something. We have clarified some concepts relating to terminology. That after all was the aim. However, in the process, we have learned a little about timelines. It relates to the present/absent interface.

The timeline as presented by the members of the holiday party may be represented as follows (�V� is used as a time arrow):

1. There is an identified time 
when Madeleine is present 
V 
2. There is a short interval during 
which Madeleine is abducted 
V 
3. There is an identified time, when 
her abduction becomes known

Now, it is possible that above represents a true picture of events. The author makes no judgements as to its truthfulness or otherwise. The point is that the independent investigator cannot admit it as true, because the evidence is provided by persons who may be have some causal connection (no, not the neglect issue!) with MMc�s absence. Incidentally, the author has deliberately omitted entering specific times, as they merely cloud the issue. For the moment, we are concerned with concepts

The independent investigator's timeline looks like this:

1. Objectively, there is a latest time 
when Madeleine was known to be 
present. At the moment, however, 
this seems to be unknown 
V 
2. There follows a period of unknown 
duration when it is not known whether 
Madeleine is present or absent 
V 
3. There is a time, yet to be admitted, 
when Madeleine can be confirmed as 
being absent.

Hard going gentles, perhaps, but the author thinks we�ve made a little progress � and in a field we did not set out to investigate.

Nice one O gentles!

- More on the timeline to follow.

Fourth Post: Monday 16 July 2007, 08.50 hr, local time, Praia da Luz

Greetings to the Forum

Good Morning

First, will you permit the author to pass on his thanks to all who have taken the trouble to visit the new site? Many thanks also to meadow who set the new site up � a task far beyond the skills of your inadequate servant. The author has only just managed to get round to visiting the site himself, it looks as if it will work well.

Much of yesterday was taken up with routine forum housekeeping �Oh dear this is beginning to sound like the blog (is that what it�s called?) on the official Madeleine website. No, no, no, � honestly, honestly, honestly - the author isn�t � just isn�t!

Anyway, the upshot of all this is that, regrettably, the author has not been able to find the time to reply individually to the posts made to the new site. He realises that this is most discourteous. May he request your forgiveness? Nonetheless, all of the posts been read with great care.

Might a collective reply be acceptable? Assuming �yes�, if that is not too presumptuous, please allow the author to say, that without exception, he has reached in, and derived support from each one. This warm and unanimous support not only boosted his morale but also continued to motivate him, as he toiled into the night. He was very touched.

No, no, no, � honestly, honestly, honestly - the author isn�t � just isn�t!

Gentles! Once more many thanks!

Turning to the business side of things, today�s offering is a hopefully a little lighter and, with luck, a little less demanding than yesterday�s. The author continues his disquisition on the theme of timeline.

Tomorrow, or possibly the day after, the author hopes to examine certain aspects relating to Madeleine�s absence, pertinent to Mr Robert Murat. This will be a meatier work. � Then, probably a rest, and then it is likely that there will be more in relation to time-line.

Some Thoughts Relating to Events Occurring at or near Praia da Luz, Portugal, around 3 May 2007

2. Contribution to Timeline Studies via the Field of Comparative Chronology

This post continues the theme of timeline, and deals with what might seem at first glance to be a minor technical matter. Many forum members will probably already know the answer to the question that follows, or perhaps think it irrelevant. We�ll have to see.

Question: When the local time was, say, 10.00 pm on 3 May 2007 at Praia da Luz, what was the time was the local time in the UK?

No prizes for the right answer, which, incidentally is 10.00 pm.

Both Portugal and UK enjoy synchronous (ie the same) time. During the period relevant to our studies, ie 28 April to, say, 6 May (or indeed to the present day) both had switched to �summer time�, or to be more formal, both enjoyed a daylight saving time of 1 hour.

To put it simply, both countries had by this time put their clocks forward an hour, and were therefore one hour in advance of GMT (or UTC - as it is, somewhat regrettably, becoming known).

Time conversion link 
http://24timezones.com/world_d.....o_time.php 
Therefore:

Portugal local time = UK local time = GMT/UTC + 1 hour

To put it another way:

10.00 pm, 03/05/07 PdL = 10.00 pm, 03/05/07 UK = 09.00 pm GMT (UTC)

Or:

22.00 hr, 03/05/07 PdL = 22.00 hr, 03/05/07 UK = 21.00 hr GMT (UTC)

Well, that should have cleared that up.

Still with us gentles? Yes? Great!

Incidentally, the author seeks to treble check all information that he presents as fact. However, even the author is fallible. No - don�t say that�s not possible! Its true! Really its true! [Thinks � What if the author�s made an error about the �being true� bit at the end of the last sentence �mm, bit difficult methinks � oh bu*g*r � spose it�s himthinks]

[Himthinks it�s a paradox [grrr]]

Anyway, gentles, this is important. You must remember, should you think the author�s make an error, you must not let those soft hearts get the better of you. The author knows this is going to be hard for you, but you must not keep silent just to spare his feelings. Are we agreed?

Relevance of the Above

You don�t believe there�s any? Try this for size.

Having carefully considered the available reported facts, it appears to the author that the timeline available to forum members is about as a contaminated as the crime scene at Apartment 5A, Ocean Club, Praia da Luz was for Mr Olegario Sousa of the the Portugese Police.

But � and here we come to the point � a the timeline is not just about a sequence of events relating the absence of Madeleine ie -

09.15 pm this � perhaps > 09.30 pm that perhaps or not > 10.00 pm a definite maybe

It�s also about things like:

� when did the sun set 
� how long did dusk last, and what could be seen? 
� did the moon illuminate the shore? If so when, from what direction and how bright

Interested? At the very least, this would be new, uncontaminated and objective data (now there�s a change). Who knows where any of this might lead?

But - do we know any of this information? The author doesn�t think we�ve been told it� but, be charitable, it must be that they must just have forgotten to share it with us.

LiL! ?? (Does the author have that right? He�s anxious to try to fit in).

Can the author supply this information? Possibly, gentle reader, possibly. IHO that is! � ho ho ho!

FAKs (the author�s definitely getting the hang of this)

Q Is this where knowledge of local time and GMT/UTC comes in? 
A You�re beginning to get the picture! Data bases are often linked to one of these time frames

Q Didn�t the author mention something a few posts ago something about �seek to bring some light to bear �� is this what it�s about? 
A Could be, but could about other things as well� Patience gentles, patience.

Dam breaking: 23rd July 2007

Some Thoughts Relating to Events Occurring at or near Praia da Luz, Portugal, around 3 May 2007

3. Contribution from Literary Criticism using some Aspects of Deconstruction

Is the Dam Breaking

The Article in the Sunday Express

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/14355.

As stated above, it is the view of the author that the Express article is much more important than many members of the forum have been prepared to credit. Although the Express is not the force it once was, it is still a significant player in the tabloid market.

The Apparent Focus of the Article

In terms of selling the Sunday Express (a major objective of the story), we are given a great headline:

�Maddy�s Parents To Face Inquiry"

Of course, the actual UK Inquiry story is a squib. Consider what the article says:

�Crown Prosecution Officers are having "informal discussions" to see whether any offence was committed.�

There is some more detail, then:

�A CPS source said: �There are a number of aspects that need to be considered.��

It may be very well be true � it claims to originate from a leak � a source - as the media like to have it. After all, it would be surprising if the CPS were not developing a position informally. They will not wish to be caught flat-footed if things start to move. Likewise, it seems unlikely that discussions could be anything other than informal. CPS could only be involved in formal discussions if the case had been formally referred to them, following a formal investigation by the British Police. There is no evidence that this has taken place, although, one has to admit, it is possible.

If the story is true, no one would expect official confirmation from the CPS. �No comment� would be the normal response to leaks, or briefings of this type.

For the sake of argument, let us postulate that the story is untrue, or at least, shall we say, creative. Under these circumstances the CPS is at a disadvantage. CPS is a large organisation, quite frankly, who knows who has been discussing what informally.

In those circumstances, the best CPS could probably do is, �At present, we have no plans to take any action ��

Is it, by the way, just a coincidence that the Express should offer this story just as CPS are completely pre-occupied with the defence of their decision not to prosecute in the cash for honours case?

From this point of view we have a fine example of the craft of tabloid journalism (and no irony intended): heads you win, and tails you win. The same goes for the Portuguese �campaign� to see the couple jailed for neglect. It may be true; it may not be true; it may be partially true: If you think it matters, you�ve rather missed the point

What, then, is the Article About?

Quite frankly, forget about the news content. In the humble option of the author, it�s about positioning the Express for the next phase of the story. Gentle reader, do remember that this story is huge. The ravenous public appetite for �Maddie� related material has yet to be satiated. The story may yet get bigger!

Now, whilst it is true that the media are responsible for creating the demand, it does not mean that they are in total command of events. Even the papers that comprise the tabloid press must show reasonable consistency: they have to keep their readers on board. Of course, they can put an accepted policy into reverse, but with a story as big as this one, they would need to construct a bridge connecting the old to the new policy; a bridge, moreover, by means of which they would seek to encourage their readers to cross.

In other words, if the basic editorial line has been basically as follows:

� a terrible tragedy has happened to a model family 
� the parents behaviour in the face of this �worst night-mare� has been dignified and brave 
� the parents enjoy universal sympathy and support 
� the extended family has been magnificent, which is just as well as: 
� the Portuguese Police are no more than bunglers, and much of the blame can be laid at their door 
� the British public�s universal sympathy, emotional support, and generosity is, deservedly, limitless � good on you Britain 
� the great and the good (inter alia, PM, Pope, St Becks and St Virgin) are clearly on their side 
� the only smell is the odour of sanctity,

... and the facts of the case change, a newspaper cannot, over-night, change the editorial line to:

� We woz misled, that were�nt the odour of sanctity at all, that were a stench

Now, gentles, please do not fall into the error of identifying the author with the above point. As yet he has no view. He is merely putting himself in the position of a tabloid editor trying to ride this particular tiger � pity that 
Editor - sweet reader - he�s desperately trying not to fall off � the tiger looks as if it might be hungry.

Another point to bear in mind is the nature of the Express itself. It proudly flies the banner �The Worlds Greatest Newspaper�. For once, one may safely imagine that the majority view of this forum about that claim is at one with the view of the rest of the press. However, one should not forget that in the Express�s golden era, under Lord Beaverbrook, that claim, certainly in terms of circulation, and influence would have been more than defensible. And boy! Wouldn�t the Express like to return to those days! Princess Diana hasn�t quite done it for them, but Madeleine, might - just might!

Were the tide to turn (and the author uses the word �were� advisedly) then the story is likely to become even bigger. For the any of the media, first there would be the new story (numerous possibilities for scoops, then the meta-story (the story about the story) - how could it be that others were deceived by this. Now, for a new story, one needs a good back-story � others may have been taken in, but we advised our readers all along �

Look at these links in relation to Mr Robert Murat (others could be cited):

http://news.sky.com/skynews/ar.....88,00.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pag.....0&ct=5

[url]http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/13425/Maddy:-Suspect's-alibi-is-in-doubt[/url]

They are not entirely unsympathetic to Mr Murat. Certainly, they are a long way away from the �sad loner� bile. �Balanced journalism� would be the official explanation. Maybe so, but it cannot be denied that the odd quote they might come in handy one day.

Breaking Ranks

Now let us examine other aspects of the Express story:

Quote - �The Sunday Express has learnt that sinister rumours on the internet (that�s us gentles) and malicious allegations in the Portuguese press about the McCanns� private life have provoked complaints to British police demanding that the couple be arrested.� � emphasis added

Immediately follows on - �Senior detectives in Portugal have been accused of leaking details about the investigation to the local media in an attempt to blacken the McCanns� name�.

Immediately follows on - �Despite the country�s strict prejudice law, forbidding police to talk to the public, vital details in the inquiry have found there way on to internet chat rooms� (that�s us again, O gentles).

A sentence later - �An article last week in Portugal�s Sol magazine accused the McCanns and the other families in their holiday group of hiding behind a �pact of silence�. It said the McCanns� friends had constantly altered their version of events and that they were a �very strange group that never stayed with their children�.

Note, this is very cleverly done. Nothing is claimed as fact, but the Express reader is clearly told that some people believe some very unpleasant things about the McCanns. The Express reader scratches his /her head �Erm �well there were always things that didn�t quite seem to add up �maybe ��, he /she thinks.

What�s more, although the article doesn�t say it specifically, doesn�t it suggest that the police have leaked these highly damaging rumours? Incidentally, one should note that the information in these alleged police leaks is not criticised for being incorrect, only for breaking the Portuguese law.

The Sunday Express Is the first national to break ranks with the rest of the media regarding the McCann�s irreproachable qualities and behaviour. It is true there have been feature articles making some unfriendly points, but these have been tilted towards the neglect issue and /or the publicity circus. It is in the Express, for the first time, that we find a main news story telling its readers that the dam which until now has looked so secure, has been actually been leaking. The article may even contribute to further cracks in the structure.

The Express has positioned itself superbly. The bridge and the back-story are in place, and if the dam breaks, one can almost see it now � � major sensation, first revealed in the Sund ��

Anorak, the satirical publication has made a very similar point; link:

http://www.anorak.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccann/175374.html

And if the dam doesn�t break (or, as before, if there isn�t a dam), then there�s always the meta-story, along the lines of � � outrage at sick and vicious lies � ill � nearly suicidal � allegations groundless etc etc, say sources close to � � etc, etc.

And just in case it should come in handy, the article ensures that the back-story for the meta-story is also in place:

Quote: �Last night Mr McCann �said, Kate and I find this type of criticism deeply hurtful and unhelpful. As each hour passes our pain and anguish increases, and

The authorities have assured us they regard the criticisms as without foundation."

Interestingly, the article takes family spokeswoman, Justine McGuinness� defence of the couple to no-man�s-land and suspends it in mid air.

Quote - �If they could turn back time there are things that they might have done differently, with the benefit of hindsight. But it is impossible to say whether, had there been an adult in the apartment at the time of the abduction, it would have stopped a predator.

�There are, sadly, several cases of children being taken by an adult with criminal intention while they have been very close by their parents.�

The article makes no comment, but just seems to leave the statement slowly turning in the in the wind. �Do they really expect you to believe this?� seems to be the unasked question. Now the author�s old mentor, Sir John Junor, legendary editor of the old Sunday Express, had a pithy comment for such nonsense. You will have heard the comment, gentle reader, but may not know who originally coined it:

"Pass the sick-bag, Alice!�

Oh, Sir John, how we miss your editorial skills, your epigrams, and your columns in the Express and Mail, not to mention Private Eye. It is true, you might be just a touch too right wing for modern taste; the meat possibly just a tad too strong. But how we could do with you now.

And if you don�t believe any of this, try looking up (what is now Monday�s) Mail link:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pag.....ge_id=1770

� And the Evening Standard link:

[url]http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23405351-details/Madeleine's+parents+could+face+inquiry+over+leaving+their+children+alone/article.do[/url]

Jockeying for position, gentles? Surely not!

But they�re too late. The Express has now got a new story:

�MADELEINE 'SMUGGLED OUT OF COUNTRY ON A BOAT'

�POLICE believe Madeleine McCann was smuggled out of Portugal on a boat, the Daily Express can reveal.�

Link: 
[url]http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/14417/Madeleine-'smuggled-out-of-country-on-a-boat'[/url]

Beginning to get the point?

The Article in the Sunday Express is a superb example of the art of the tabloid journalist. You may not like it. You may hate it, sweet reader, but it offers a master class in the craft of the writer. Any would-be hack should read and learn: it is essential study.

Think it�s easy, gentles? You try and get a job in Sir John Junor�s Grub Street � that Street of Shame.

And, by the by, gentle readers, don�t any of you be tempted to try deconstruct the author�s imperfections � he knows where you live!

August 2nd Page 1206: 1.03 am: Full link to discussion click

Londonboy (greetings by the way!) raised the very interesting question as to why this British team of police /experts /criminologists /psychologists /profilers � reports vary � has been sent. The author has been pondering this all day, whilst attempting to keep up with the thread.

To return to the point, why do profilers or criminologists need to be physically present in Portugal? Once the known facts of a case have been set out, cannot profiling be done remotely?

Of course, one has to bear in mind that the apparent (ie reported) reasons for this exercise may have little to do with the real reasons. There are a range of possibilities, including - political fence mending, training (UK or PJ), even perhaps going on a jolly. An interrogation role is another possibility, but given Portuguese sensitivities, a direct role here seems as unlikely as the others.

Nothing seems likely, but then neither does �profiling� � at least in the ordinary sense of the term (the author will return to this in another post).

A good contender for a role would be an external review of the case by the UK experts. Given that this is unlikely to be welcomed by the PJ, such a move would require endorsement at a very high level. The agreement would have to be provisional � after all the case might have been solved before the review could start. And of course, it would be difficult to commence the review immediately: leadership appointment, team selection, action planning, briefing, and logistics all take time.

For any such agreement to take place, much face-saving would need to be done. Portugal is after all, Britain�s oldest ally. Diplomatic niceties would have to be observed. In these circumstances, it is standard practice for complimentary remarks to be made about the party that is to be stitched up. Meanwhile, it is imperative that the stitch-up, in this case the review, is disguised as something else.

Enter the meeting between PM, Gordon Brown and his Portuguese oppo, Jose Socrates on 12 July.

It�s worthwhile, re-reading the statements made by the two PM�s after their meeting:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/ar.....78,00.html

To the author at least, these make rather more sense, in the context of the above, than they did at the time. Incidentally, it has not escaped the author�s attention that Gordon Brown paid the compliments in the name of the McCanns, and not in the name of the UK:

�The PM said: "I expressed the thanks of Madeleine's parents to the Portuguese authorities for their efforts, and said we would do everything in our power to secure the safe return of Madeleine to her parents."

At the time of course, one was either perplexed, or tempted by the lure of conspiracies (other conspiracies that is - not the diplomatic one). 
Only speculation, gentles, but what do you think?

August 2nd 10.08 pm To follow all the conversation click

Apologies for interrupting, but author still catching up with dialogue from last night (erm early hours this morning actually). Will you forgive?

[quote="charybdis"][quote="theAuthor"][quote="charybdis"][quote="theAuthor"]?[/quote]

Can you state, clearly, exactly what you are speculating here?

It would make it much easier for the 'gentles' (and 'ungentles') reading to respond to the poinst you are (allegedly) making.[/quote]

***********************

O Charybdis - sounds like the author has got you all in a whirl. Apologies - this was not his intention - thought he'd made himself clear. However, in a nutshell:

The new initiative is being marketed as a cracker-style intervention. The author suggests that this may be a cover for a strategic review by a senior team of UK police (and their advisors) of the investigation undertaken so far by the Portuguese police.[/quote]

***********************

O, author, your classical allusions may be accurate; nevertheless, any suggestion that the poster behind the name of charybdis is 'in a whirl' (much less as a result of 'the author's' writings!) are far from accurate.

Why would a proud and sovereign nation like Portugal feel the need to submit to a 'strategic review' of its actions by another country?

You purvey, o author, an assumption that the Portuguese investigation into the disappearance (Latin American usage) of little Madeleine is somehow in need of "a strategic review by a senior team of UK police (and their advisors)".

Charybdis disagrees with such an assumption, in such unexplained terms.

If the author, or anyone else here, believes that the Portuguese police have not/cannot carry out this investigation without a 'strategic review' by UK police, could the author or others please explain why?

Pray tell the answers, o author, without (as others have done) attempting to suggest that genuine, open-minded, and wide-ranging debate will somehow create 'a whirl' [/quote]

*********************** 
Thank you charybdis for your comments. Sorry for taking so long to reply, but as the author stated, 16 minutes before your post, �HOTB�. The author was tempted to say that he�d rather take his chances with your sister, Scylla, than attempt to escape your wet and, ever closer, spiralling embrace. But, actually that�s not true. He�s most flattered that you took the time to comment on his post: this is more than almost anyone else did. It was of course posted at 0203 hrs (PdL local time), which may have a bearing on the matter.

Incidentally, gentles, if any should be interested, it may be found on p1206, this thread, 1.03 am GMT, link to page:

[url]http://forums.mirror.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=1140&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=18075[/url]

O Charybdis, hurt pride, of course, precluded the possibility of the author reposting; like Achilles (don�t think you ever met him, but might be wrong), the author went to his tent and sulked (HOTT - logic).

However, putting all that aside, will you please permit the author to address your objections. Because your excellent post raises such very deep questions, would you excuse the the author if he reply in some depth? May he list the points he wishes to make? � It makes life a little easier for him, and possibly for any gentle reader who may happen to stumble across this imperfect offering.

1. The author has no �beliefs� as such about this, or for that matter any other, aspect of this very puzzling affair. There are however certain reports (almost all knowledge about the case is at best second hand) that may be provisionally accepted as likely to be true. Even these, however, can only be admitted as �factual� after evaluation. As has been pointed out many times in this forum, many of the facts that one would like to know are either: not known; known - but not reported (PJ secrecy); derive from an unreliable source (eg a suspect); or exist in multiple, and contradictory versions.

These are the conundrums that make this case so fascinating, so intriguing, and so addictive �certainly, at least, for the author.

2. In the author�s view, most of the progress made on this thread (progress, note) derives from posters researching sources, cross-referencing them, asking questions, and seeking to answer them - sometimes individually, often in dialogue with others. This may result in the creation of whole theories such as logic�s �Hoax� or meadow�s � Wandered�.

For a theory to be accepted as reasonable, it must be consistent with the facts (insofar as these are known); and internally coherent when examined logically. For a theory to have any plausibility, it must, in some sense, be testable. This is not easy in this forum, as very few posters are �actors� in this unfolding drama. In other words, it is extremely difficult for a poster to bring about events that will cause evidence to emerge supporting or detracting from a selected viewpoint. However, any reasonable theory is predictive; the minimum prediction being that theory will be able to accommodate emerging facts - that is to say facts that were unknown at the time the theory was formulated.

All of this means that progress has thus been difficult and painfully slow.

3. In the case of the �Cracker� team visiting Portugal, it seemed to the author that a good question to ask was �If the exercise is only about profiling, why do the team need to be physically present in Portugal? With modern communication, cannot profiling be done anywhere?

The author�s original take was that that the profilers needed to be there to actively observe, and actively steer, behaviour by possible suspects in real-time. This remains a possibility. However, before posting this, the author tried to examine (with a view to eliminating them) other possible reasons for the team being physically present. Several exist. Most seemed unlikely (see original post for the rationale).

One, however, proved much more difficult to discount, namely: the team were not there to undertake profiling as such, but to undertake another activity that for political reasons could not be openly admitted. It seemed to the author that a likely candidate was the undertaking of a major and external review of the PJ investigation so far. He suggested a scenario to account for this (see the post), and then offered the idea for consideration �

He finished the post with: �Only speculation, gentles, but what do you think?�

4. Turning, then Charybdis to your specific points:

i. Quote, �Why would a proud and sovereign nation like Portugal feel the need to submit to a 'strategic review' of its actions by another country?�

Ans. Speculatively, because of the political muscle exerted by another, larger, and more politically more powerful nation (UK), whose leaders consider that it is in their interests for such a review to take place. Terrified of being tabloided for appearing complacent about the investigation.

ii. Quote �You purvey, o author, an assumption that the Portuguese investigation into the disappearance (Latin American usage) of little Madeleine is somehow in need of "a strategic review by a senior team of UK police (and their advisors)".

Ans - Author does not hold this view, and has never suggested it. However, others (inter alia, some Tabloids) certainly do hold this view.

iii. Quote �Charybdis disagrees with such an assumption, in such unexplained terms�.

Ans - This is a perfectly reasonable position, but Charybdis needs to take this up with those who hold such a view.

iv. Quote. �If the author, or anyone else here, believes that the Portuguese police have not/cannot carry out this investigation without a 'strategic review' by UK police, could the author or others please explain why?�

Ans - The author does not believe this (or anything for that matter �see top of present post). He cannot answer for others.

v. Quote. �Pray tell the answers, o author, without (as others have done) attempting to suggest that genuine, open-minded, and wide-ranging debate will somehow create 'a whirl'�.

All he can say is that he has done his imperfect best.

In relation to the author�s proposal, time and the unfolding of evidence may be the final judge � or possibly not. However, concerning his proposal�s capacity to accommodate unfolding facts, the author is heartened by accounts such as:

[url]http://functionpix.com/index.php/article/Madeleine_McCann_Cracker_detectives_in_too_late_say_police/1543/[/url]

The above link was not googleable by the author at the time he posted � he checked.

HOTB

Will take up any resulting discussion tomorrow

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