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Only a few short months ago, England defeated Australia in the Ashes series for the first time since 1986.� The win saw widespread jubilation and celebration by their supporters.� Some began to suggest that they were now the number one team in Test cricket.
Wiser heads, including England coach Duncan Fletcher, noted that England would need to win in Pakistan and India before they could claim the number one position.� A series of pathways were available to England, one of which could take them quickly to the top, others to differing outcomes.
England's tour of Pakistan has shown that they have some distance to travel before they overcome Australia.�
Pakistan managed to come back from a very poor position in the first Test to win by a mere 22 runs at Multan.� England spent the second Test at Faisalabad on the back foot and escaped with a backs-to-the-wall fighting draw, with only four wickets remaining.� In Lahore, Pakistan was never troubled and cruised to an innings and 100 run victory.
The victory over England comes as Pakistan is undergoing a rebuilding phase.� Pakistan has produced indifferent results over the last five years.� The Pakistani rating has moved in a relatively tight 30-point band between a low of 1057 points in April 2001 to a high of 1087 points in December 2003.�
In that time, Pakistan has had to deal with tours to their nation being cancelled, postponed or moved to neutral venues post September 11.� Pakistan's overall number of Tests played in the period has been well below average.� While Pakistan has done enough to remain competitive, both India and England have overtaken Pakistan and they have dropped from third position to fifth.
Pakistan remain in fifth place in the ratings despite their rating has climbing to 1081 points.� Pakistan is, however, now just two rating points behind fourth placed India and well placed to climb back up the rankings.
As a result of losing the series, England's rating has dropped markedly by 21 points to 1138 points.� England still retains second place in the ratings.� However, their lead over third placed South Africa is now only twelve rating points.� More depressingly, England has once again fallen more than 100 points behind first placed Australia - a similar position to prior to the Ashes series.
England's defeat of Australia showed that they are the best team in the world - on their own pitches and armed with their Duke balls.� England last lost a home series in 2001 against Australia.� Meanwhile, only India has defeated Australia in a Test series, also in 2001.�
To have any hope of closing the 102 rating-point gap on Australia, England must win consistently where every they play and every Test they play.�
South Africa is a case study for England to observe.� South Africa briefly claimed first position in the ratings in January 1999 after their series white wash over West Indies.� South Africa held first position for most of that year until the Waugh led Australians began their current rampage around the world, including their record 16 consecutive Test victories.
For five years starting in January 2000, South Africa held second place in the ratings.� During this period South Africa set national records for the highest rating with 1165 rating points.� South Africa also consistently won their Test series all around the world, including in Sri Lanka and India well before Australia managed to achieve the same result.
The difference was that while South Africa won their series, Australia began a pattern of not dropping Tests once the series was won - they had overcome, to a substantial degree, the Waugh dubbed 'dead rubber syndrome'.� In doing so, Australia began to create an aura of invincibility that no team had managed since the great West Indian sides under Clive Lloyd and (Sir) Vivian Richards.
If England wishes to travel down the path to greatness, they must first win overseas and then secure the whitewashes.� In effect, squeeze every last point out of the system in their favour.� Any draw or loss will delay the point where that can one day surpass Australia and claim first place in the ratings.
South Africa failed to achieve this objective when the path lay open to them.� In the last two years, South Africa's rating has been trending downwards, indicating they have probably 'peaked'.� The likelihood is that the path for South Africa to the top has disappeared.
Australia will eventually drop back to the rest of the field.� They cannot maintain a rating over 1200 points indefinitely - they are only the fourth team to hold a rating over 1200 points in 128 years of Test cricket.� All of their predecessors have fallen back, in the case of West Indies, disastrously so.� It is only a matter of time.
England should note that South Africa was unable to maintain their high level of achievement long enough to wait for Australia to tumble.
�
The latest Test cricket ratings are: 1. Australia (1240); 2. England (1138); 3. South Africa (1126); 4. India (1083); 5. Pakistan (1081) ; 6. Sri Lanka (1054); 7. New Zealand (1036); 8. West Indies (949); 9. Zimbabwe (849); 10. Bangladesh (785).
