From 1877 until World War One
Between the World Wars
Post War to the WSC Revolution
The Professional Era to the New Millennium
The New Millennium and Beyond
Other Pages
Home Page
Article Archive
How the System Works
Frequently Asked Questions
Statistical Points of Interest
Current and Future Series Predictions
Links
Site Map
Information for Visiting Webmasters
Contact Us
Get Free e-mail ratings updates
Given the last 20 years, English cricket fans now have a lot to talk about.� During the final 15 years of the last century, English cricket suffered one of its darkest periods.� England was the number one Test team in the world from November 1978 to April 1981 and remained ranked second behind the West Indies until May 1984.� However, the 0-5 loss during the West Indies tour of England in mid 1984 signalled the beginning of a 15-year stupor for English cricket.�
One year later, in 1985, England won back the Ashes from Australia 3-1.� England then managed to retain the Ashes, winning 2-1, when touring the Antipodes in 1986-87.� However, these two series represented the final achievement for a team that had effectively clocked-off over an opponent at a historically low ebb.�
At their worst, England dropped to a rating of 988 points in 1989, which was their fifth worst rating in history.� Not since 1909 had England been rated as poorly.� It was a historical irony that Allan Border's Australians were the team to inflict that depressingly low rating on England in 1989, whilst winning back the Ashes.� Since then, Australia has held the Ashes for a record of seven consecutive Test series.
England cricket fans suffered for another decade until, at the turn of the millennium, English cricket began to emerge from their long coma at last.� Since early 2000, England has lifted its rating by 112 points, from 1024 to 1136 points.� As a result, England has moved from sixth place to second in the ratings.
However, England remains a distant second to the most highly rated team in the 128 years of Test cricket.� Australia currently holds rating of 1252 points, placing it 16 points ahead of (Sir) Vivian Richards' 1986 West Indian team that holds the all time second highest rating of 1236 points.� A further 19 points back is Lindsay Hassett's Australian side of 1951-52 in overall third place with 1217 points.� Between them, these three sides constitute the greatest Test sides ever to have played the game.
While England has improved, so has Australia.� The last time Australia toured England, in 2001, Australia held a 126 rating-point lead over England and won 4-1.� The current 116-point gap between England and Australia is both sizeable and significant.� The ratings system suggests that Australia will win the series by 3.5 to 1.5, where a win is worth one point and draws are worth half a point.
The following is a basic reality check for English fans:� England holds a similar lead to seventh placed New Zealand.� If England fans are confident that New Zealand would defeat England in a five Test series, then they should remain confident about England's chances of defeating Australia.
The more likely scenario is yet another Australian victory with England falling into a waiting game.� England has finally seen off the Waugh twins who have tormented them for almost two decades.� This will be the last time McGrath, Warne and Gilchrist tour England, although they will probably again turn out to defend the Ashes in Australia during 2006-07.� The balance of probability is that the next Australian side to tour England will be vastly weaker than the current side.
South Africa provides an instructive case study for England to observe closely.� South Africa ascended into first place in the ratings after unexpectedly demolishing the West Indies in 1999 by 5-0 in South Africa.� Within two months, Australia under Stephen Waugh, rocketed past them and established a more than comfortable 80 ratings point lead.�
South Africa was able to maintain a rating of around 1150 points for most of the next four years, a rating that would have seen them in first place in the ratings in most other eras.� However, South Africa was unable to keep increasing their rating toward Australia and for most of the next four years they maintained a healthy 80 point lead over third place.�
South Africa ended up waiting for Australia to fall back from their record levels.� Unfortunately, South Africa has recently weakened and appears to be about to drop back towards India and Pakistan.
England has certainly improved over the last four years, gaining 112 rating-points.� However, England would have to again undergo a similarly large improvement to have a realistic chance of even drawing the series against Australia.�
The reality for England is that they will struggle and lose during this Ashes series.� England will then need to remain at least as competitive as they are now for another four years before they will regain the Ashes.� During those four years, Australia will inevitably drop back from their current record levels to 'mere mortal status' of a rating under 1200 points.
The current Australian team is the best that has ever played.� The evidence to this claim lies in the last six years of consistently better than expected results against every nation.� A Test team like these Australians only occurs occasionally and they did not achieve the highest ever rating in Test history easily.� That experience lies with the long-term incumbents.� When those players retire, there will be time for other nations, but that time is not yet here.
The following quote from Wallaby captain George Gregan is as relevant to England as it was to the New Zealand All Blacks, who were losing the 2003 Rugby World Cup semi-final: 'Four more years boys, four more years'.
�
The latest Test cricket ratings are: 1. Australia (1252); 2. England (1132); 3. South Africa (1124); 4. India (1077); 5. Pakistan (1063) ; 6. Sri Lanka (1038); 7. New Zealand (1028); 8. West Indies (967); 9. Zimbabwe (864); 10. Bangladesh (794).
