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England and South Africa were separated by only one rating point before the series began.� The most likely result would have been a drawn series.� However, in recent trend terms, England had won their last three Test series while South Africa had lost their last two Test series, against India and Sri Lanka.
England began the series with a seven-wicket win in Port Elizabeth.� South Africa then fought back and recaptured momentum in the series with a draw in Durban and then a win by 196 runs in Cape Town.� However, England then swung the series in their favour with a 77 runs victory in Johannesburg.� By the time the teams arrived in Centurion, South Africa could at best only draw the series.� Unfortunately, rain plagued the final Test, wiping around one-third of the available overs and condemning the match to a draw.
England last defeated South Africa in the republic in 1965.� England has since defeated South Africa on only other occasion.� While hosting South Africa in 1998, England also won two Tests to one.�
England's victory has lifted their rating to 1132 points and second place in the ratings.� From a historical perspective, that is England's highest rating since March 1980.� The last time England held second place in the ratings was May 1984.� England has also equalled their 20th highest rating in history.� England's highest rating in history is 1166 points, set in February 1979.
England suffered a forgettable decade leading up to the turn of the end of 1999.� However, England has since steadily increased their rating.� Starting at 1024 points and sixth place in the ratings in December 1999, England has now added 108 points to their rating.
England's 108-point improvement over the period has a number of similarities to that achieved by Australia (1999-2005) and Sri Lanka (1999-2002).� England has:
*� added 108-points to their rating while Australia added 121 points and Sri Lanka added 73 points;
*� set a national record for consecutive Test victories with eight, ending with the draw in the second Test at Durbin.� Australia holds the record with 16 victories, while Sri Lanka set a national record of nine victories; and
*� a current national record of four consecutive Test series, while Australia currently has five and Sri Lanka had three.
England has now either won or drawn their most recent Test series against all nations other than Australia and Sri Lanka.� England lost in Sri Lanka during the December 2003 tour.� England has not defeated Australia in a Test series since 1986.
South Africa has now slipped back to third place in the ratings with 1118 points.� South Africa retains a comfortable 40-point lead over fourth placed India.� In January 1999, South Africa completed an unanticipated five to nil drubbing of West Indies and their rating climbed dramatically from 1083 to 1151 points.� As a result, South Africa climbed from fourth place straight into first place.�
South Africa held first place until Waugh's Australians passed them one year later in January 2000.� Thereafter, South Africa was comfortable ranked second with a rating between 1133 and 1165 points.� Their nearest rivals were at times 100 points lower until England climbed into third place in April 2004.� Since that time, England has continued their upward trend while South Africa has drifted back toward England.
South Africa has now lost three consecutive Test series, which is their worst effort since they lost six straight Test series between 1935 and 1951.� South Africa can still rebound.� Their next series against Zimbabwe in mid February should see a series whitewash as a first step.� However, South African cricket may well be at a turning point after a sustained period of good results against all nations other than Australia.�
While England is now 14 points clear of the newly third placed South Africa, England remains a massive 118 points behind Australia.� England's next challenge is to narrow Australia's lead to the point that they can challenge for first place.� However, as South Africa has found, that may require Australia falling back to 'mere mortal' status of a rating below 1150 points.� South Africa was not able to wait that long.
England hosts Australia in a five Test Ashes series in mid 2005.� England will certainly be more competitive with Australia than they have been for a decade.� However, the ratings system would suggest that the result of the series is likely to be an Australian win by 3.5 to 1.5 (allowing one point for a win and half a points for a draw).�
A direct comparison of the nation's ratings also suggests an Australian Ashes win.� The difference between the Australian and English rating (118 points) is about the same as the English and New Zealand ratings (111 points).� Therefore, England's chances of defeating Australia would be around that of New Zealand defeating England.� So, if you are an English supporter, and you think New Zealand could defeat your England, then you should feel very confident about the next Ashes series ...
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The latest Test cricket ratings are: 1. Australia (1250); 2. England (1132); 3. South Africa (1118); 4. India (1078); 5. Pakistan (1063) ; 6. Sri Lanka (1045); 7. New Zealand (1021); 8. West Indies (967); 9. Zimbabwe (870); 10. Bangladesh (794).
