| The Global Freedom Institute |
| Bush: Politics vs. Integrity President Bush, then candidate Bush, talked about �lost opportunities� of the Clinton Administration. He also talked about responsibility and integrity in leadership. President Bush�s first 52 days do show he has a sense of irony. Two issues have thus illustrated the irony of those ideals espoused by President Bush: The tax cut rhetorical choices he has made and his recent comments on North Korea. One could have predicted an economic slowdown after so many rate increases last year by Alan Greenspan. However, one could not know just how heavy they would be on the economy. Currently, the economy is bordering on zero growth, and some speculate that it may have dropped below that point. President Bush has used this to lobby for his tax cut with claims that his tax cuts are absolutely needed to spur the economy. There are a few problems with this statement. First, the tax cut, even in its �retroactive� form, would only send about $6 billion of the $1.6 trillion promised back to Americans the first year. In an $8 plus trillion economy, that is about 0.075% of the GDP back to the people. Most of this tax cut is back loaded. Even in its �retroactive� form, 11% of the tax cut would be seen from 2001 to 2005. About 89% of the tax cut would show up from 2006 to 2011. Considering the normal economic cycles, the interest rate cuts, and other economic stimuli, when the bulk of this tax cut returns to Americans�the odds are that the economy will have worked out of possible recession before most of that tax cut will ever be seen by Americans. The integrity behind this statement seems to be lacking so much that even GOP pundit Rush Limbaugh has admitted it on his talk show. Second, President Bush�s statement has a negative impact on the economy. One of the few impacts that a president truly has on the economy is on consumer confidence. When a president chooses to use positive terms about the economy, there tends to be a positive correlation with consumer confidence. When a president chooses to use negative terms to describe the economy and its future, the inverse is true also. In this case, to use the terms that the economy is headed for recession unless his tax package is passed would lower consumer confidence until a tax cut is passed. If, as may be true in this case, a different tax cut is passed or a prolonged debate over the tax cut occurs, it may maintain lower consumer confidence until that tax cut is passed. In this case, this debate may take a while in the Senate, and may be scaled down. In the mean time, people will start to spend less because of a fear of recession and the need to save money for this rainy day. As the economy is slowing, this may increase that tightening up of wallets by consumers, thus slowing the economy further and faster. This shows a potential lack of understanding of his own impact at worst case, and best case, a lack of responsibility. In order to achieve political gain, President Bush may be undermining the economy. The North Korea comments by President Bush have similar implications. When asked to explain his rejection of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung�s policies toward North Korea in his efforts to end the North Korea missile program, Bush commented, �We�re not certain as to whether or not they�re keeping all terms of all agreements.� This may seem to be simply a hard line policy towards North Korea, however, it may be quite more than that. South Korean President Kim Dae Jung has been using a �sunshine� policy towards North Korea. This policy is designed to lead to reunification of Korea, most likely with Southern leadership, similar to the reuniting of Germany. If this becomes the case, our allie, South Korea would be in control of the North Korean missiles. Therefore, the missile policies are not as significant as the uniting of the two countries. The primary justifications for this answer by Bush could be to maintain his reasons for a missile defense. North Korea has long been the �poster child� for missile defense supporters. If that �enemy� were absent from the debate, it may be harder to gain support for a missile defense system, given the current reasons being used. It may also be part of the hard line approach that Bush announced with his bombing of Iraq in the first month in office. However, it may not be a positive policy in terms of achieving peace in Korea. It may be a political move, which is more likely. Both of these may be the �lost opportunities� that Bush used to describe Bill Clinton during the campaign. If the economy rebounded quickly due to high consumer confidence in the economy, if the tax cuts were given because it is right to give them to Americans, if Bush fostered Korean unity, instead of shifting to a hard line policy, and Bush used better missile defense justifications, he could be a hero. President Bush could be seen in a better light than even Ronald Reagan. Instead, opportunities may be lost. Integrity has been thrown out for political victory. Understanding of responsibility ended when he took office. If those are important values, it may be time to start walking the walk, not just talking the talk. --Tony McWilliams 3/15/01 Tony McWilliams is a Sr. Fellow at the Global Freedom Institute Return to Main Page |
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