Related: POLL ON THE ISSUES • Georgians' wish list long • Ten key issues legislators will face this session. HOPE SCHOLARSHIP • Hope for HOPE: Lawmakers face a minefield of essential reforms. STATE BUDGET • Gov. Perdue ready to unveil a lean-and-mean budget for 2004. • Rough-and-tumble year helps leader hone style SESSION GUIDE • Your guide to the session, the main players and the hottest issues: Events schedule | Key committees | Legislators offices | Telephone numbers | On the Web | ajc.com | On television | By mail | In person | Interpreting services • How a bill becomes law ONLINE • For Web users: How to keep track of the General Assembly online. PLAYERS • Democrats' anchor: House Speaker Terry Coleman is the man in the middle. • Who's who in the Georgia legislature. | Lawmakers | Lobbyists LEGISLATURE GUIDE

The recommendations are in, and the predictions are dire.

To stop the hemorrhaging in the HOPE scholarship program, legislators will have to slash hundreds of millions of dollars from one of the most popular initiatives in Georgia's history.

A state commission spent months drafting suggestions. Experts crunched numbers that showed that the HOPE and the lottery-funded pre-k program could sink $434 million into debt by 2009.

But when the 2004 General Assembly session starts Monday, nobody expects the changes to be easy.

How to fix HOPE will be one of the most hotly contested issues in the General Assembly, Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson (R-Savannah) said.

"It's going to be a tough sell in a session filled with tough issues," Johnson said. "But we have only a two- or three-year window. We can't put it off."

Last month, the HOPE commission delivered a list of suggested changes, which lawmakers will use to develop legislation this session.

Some recommendations, such as the proposed elimination of book and fee payments for HOPE scholars, would affect students' and parents' wallets immediately. Those cuts could save the program more than $125 million next school year and up to $1 billion over the next decade.

Walking a tightrope

In an election year, however, lawmakers could resist big changes that would upset constituents, said Sen. Bill Hamrick (R-Douglasville), chairman of the Higher Education Committee.

Hamrick, who co-chaired the HOPE commission with Rep. Louise McBee (D-Athens), said projections don't lie -- and lawmakers should listen.

"There is some political concern during an election year, and we may have to work with people and take their concerns into consideration," he said. "But the sooner we can do something to save money, the better it will be for everyone."

Cutting books and fees alone won't be enough to save the massive program.

The commission also recommended a plan that would drastically cut the number of students who qualify for HOPE, by changing its grading standard to a 3.0 GPA in the 2007-2008 school year.

About one-third of current HOPE scholars entering Georgia's public universities do not have a standard 3.0, although they are classified as "B" students, reports show.

Shelley Nickel, who heads the Georgia Student Finance Commission, which administers HOPE, has said the grading change will bring the scholarship in line with current college entrance requirements.

SAT proposal opposed

The 3.0 cutoff, like the book and fee elimination, is likely to meet opposition when it hits the Legislature.

State Rep Tyrone Brooks (D-Atlanta) said he also is worried that lawmakers will reintroduce a plan set forth by Gov. Sonny Perdue to link HOPE to college entrance exams.

The minimum SAT proposal, which did not make it as an official commission recommendation, still is likely to come up, Brooks said.

"If it does, the black elected officials are prepared to fight, " he said. "We are absolutely opposed to any link between HOPE and the SAT."

State figures show that if a 1000 SAT score had been a HOPE requirement in fall 2000, about two-thirds of African-American college freshmen who received the scholarship and about one-third of whites would not have been eligible.

Perdue, who has not proposed a specific SAT score, has said he wants a minimum score included in HOPE requirements as a way to improve the state's poor showing on the college entrance exam.

Senate President Pro Tem Johnson said that, while debates may be fierce, he remains hopeful lawmakers will come up with solutions.

"I have to believe that there is broad bipartisan consensus that we need to take some steps to preserve HOPE's integrity," Johnson said. "This is exactly what we're elected to do."

• Eliminate payment for books, effective in the 2004-2005 school year.
• Eliminate payment for fees, starting in the 2004-2005 school year.
• Cap the number of eligibility hours for the HOPE grant at 95 quarter hours (63 semester hours), effective in the 2004-2005 school year and cap participation across the grant and scholarship programs at the current limit of 127 semester hours. HOPE grants, as opposed to scholarships, go to students attending Georgia's public technical colleges.
• Restrict eligibility for the HOPE grant to those students who do not possess a bachelor's degree, effective school year 2004-2005.
• Implement a standard 3.0 grade-point average requirement for the HOPE scholarship, effective in the 2007-2008 school year.
• Preserve the merit-based focus of the HOPE scholarship and encourage application for the federal, needs-based Pell Grant by all potential recipients.
• Make adjustments to HOPE's residency requirement to ensure that it is uniform.
• Review college students' grades yearly, after spring semester, in addition to the 30, 60 and 90 semester hour checks to ensure compliance with the 3.0 GPA requirement.
• Improve data collection and management.
• Determine the appropriate means of legislative oversight and coordination.
• Create a commission to study the pre-kindergarten program.
• Implement a uniform grading system for public K-12 education in Georgia.
• Discontinue lottery funding for capital projects.

Additional options that were not endorsed by the full commission but might be considered by the Legislature:

• Require a minimum SAT score.
• Use end-of-course tests, now in development, to determine eligibility.
• Raise the required grade-point average.
• Pay a flat grant to all HOPE recipients, not to exceed expenses for the program.