JNPR

 

Fundamental

 

The mean target price of 14.5 implies the required return for this stock is about 15%, $.17 earning this year, 0.34 next year and long term growth rate of 25%.     CAPM sugguests rate of return of 33%.

 

 

Technical

 

Upward trend has yet to established and currently the stock is overbought.  $16.5 is the resistant point and $9.5 is the support point for short term.

 

My 2 cents

 

I shall consider to buy at a price below $12 if it is oversold.  Hopefully, I can sell it at around $15.

 

Key Competitors

 

CSCO,  Hyperchips  ( a start up not yet gone public)

 

Upside

 

The Company is in the core router market.  Currently the TAM is about $2.6 billion and by 2006, it is expected to grow to $ 6 billion.   Only segment in the networking market we expect to see growth in this year.

 

With over $1 billion cash and short term investment  should help them to ride out this storm.

 

Downside

 

Bells or other telecom are not ready to spend capital dollars.  Cisco’s end to end solution is more appealing to them than Juniper’s powerful machine.

 

A few startup companies come out with even better performance router.   Hyperchips is one of them.

 

 

15 minutes Delayed Quote

 

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