AMAT

 

Fundamental

 

The mean target price of  $59.8 implies the required return for this stock is about 10%, $.27 earning this year, 1.317  next year and long term growth rate of  19%.     CAPM sugguests rate of return of 21%.

 

 

Technical

 

Upward trend has yet to established and currently the stock is overbought.  $59 is the resistant point and $40 is the support point for short term.

 

My 2 cents

 

I shall consider to buy at a price below $45 and sell at a price above $53.

 

Key Competitors

 

Lam Research Corporation, FEI Co (FEIC), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC), Varian Semiconductor Equip Associates Inc., ULVAC technologies Inc.(not listed), Axcelis Technologies (2000 sales less than $1 billion),

 

 

Upside

 

The Company is the market leader in provision of equipments for FAB.  They have strong products in deposition, ion  implantation, CMP, etching.

 

Strong financial position, cash and short term capital is about $ 5 billion.  Debt/Equity is 0.08. 

 

Decisive management team managed the past two downturns in 1996 and 2001 very well.

 

Over half of its revenue is derived from outside US.  It maintains good relationship with Taiwan foundries. Key customers include Intel, AMD, Motorola, TSMC, etc.

 

 

Downside

 

The business is greatly affected by the business cycle of semiconductors.   Mild recovery in Semiconductors market and slow ramping of investment in 300 mm Fab will restrict the growth of  its business.

 

 

15 minutes Delayed Quote

 

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