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Introduction Modern
theory of investment in financial assets, as opposed to investment in real and derivative
assets, has embraced three main building blocks of continued development and refinements.
It spans three consecutive decades from 1950s to 1970s namely, the portfolio theory and
the single-factor model which are based on the mean-variance
efficiency (MVE) for assets allocation pioneered by Markowitz (1952,
1959) and simplified by Sharpe (1963), the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
developed independently by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Mossin (1966), and the
arbitrage pricing theory (APT) by Ross (1976).
While the MVE is concerned with the diversifiability of idiosyncratic
risk associated with the expected rates of return on securities through optimal portfolio
selection, the CAPM is more involved with the estimation of the general-equilibrium rates
of return on securities in relation to the term structure of the risk-free interest rate
and the non-diversifiable market risk premium. In particular, both MVE and CAPM rely on
the second moment of the stochastic return-generating function, i.e., variance (s2) and
standard deviation (s), as the
measures of risk. In general, however, the proxies for risk can be derived from factors
other than variance-covariance relationship between the market and the specific security
as extended by the APT. All these three interrelated theories and models shall be explored
in more detail in the sections to follow. The interim section
investigates the empirical tests of CAPM and APT. My own conclusion and critique are
supplied in the final section of this paper.
The Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolio Theory Back to Top
The Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection introduces the use of MVE
in finding the optimal combination of securities which has the minimum variance and (i.e.,
the efficient portfolio) and factor analysis in modeling the behavior of security prices
and correlation among security returns. With regard to the MVE, the objective is to find
the portfolio weights that minimize the level of portfolio risk, proxied by the variance,
subject to a given level of expected rate of return, given by the weighted mean returns of
n securities. The following presents two alternative notations - statistical and matrix
algebra - to derive the required portfolio weights:
min V = SnSnsijwiwj =
min 0.5wTVw
- Subject to
- E = SnwiE(ri)
= wTe
- 1 = Snwi
= wT1
-
- where
- V = portfolio variance
- E = portfolio expected return
- e = n-vector of security expected return
- w = n-vector of portfolio weights
- sij = covariance of
securities i and j, i¹j
- wi, wj = weights of holding securities i and j
Using the Lagrangian optimization technique with two multipliers, l and g, the resultant portfolio weight is given by:
w = l(V-1e) + g(V-11)
Further manipulation of matrix algebra yields:
w = D-1[B(V-1)-A(V-1e)]
+ D-1[C(V-1e)-A(V-11)]E
- where
- A = (eTV-11)
- B = (eTV-1e)
- C = (1TV-11)
- D = (BC-A2)
- and
- l = D-1(CE-A)
- g = D-1(B-AE)
Characteristics of the MVE Portfolio Frontier
- The Mean-Variance (MV) frontier has a parabolic shape while the
Mean-Standard Deviation (MSD) frontier has a hyperbolic shape.
- The MVE portfolios are located on the frontier above the
minimum-variance portfolio.
- Any frontier portfolio can be generated by a linear combination of two
other frontier portfolios.
- Every MVE portfolio has a counterpart zero-covariance inefficient
portfolio whose return is equal to the intercept of the line tangent to that MVE portfolio
on the MV parabola.
- The expected return of any portfolio can be generated by a linear
combination of MVE portfolio and its zero-covariance counterpart.
- The linear combination between the risk-free rate and the MVE portfolio
implies a two-fund separation.
The Factor Model Back to Top
As Sharpe (1984) indicates, a factor model describes the
expected-return-generating process which underlies the behavior of security prices. It
attempts to capture the major sources of correlation among security returns. The general
representation of factor model is given by:
rj = aj + bj1F1
+ bj2F2
+ ... + bjkFk
+ ej
E[rj] = aj + bj1F1
+ bj2F2
+ ... + bjkFk +
E[ej]
- where
- rj = ex ante rate of return on security j
- aj = non-factor-related
rate of return on security j
- bji = sensitivity of the
return on security j to the ith factor
- Fi = value of the ith factor, i = 1,2,...,k
- ej = residual return uncorrelated
with any factors in the model
- E[ej]
= zero
The Factor Model Assumptions and Implications
- The main assumption underlying the factor model is that the residual
return of jth security (i.e., ej, j = 1,2,...,n) are uncorrelated with one another in addition to
its unrelatedness to any factors in the model. Therefore, it is implied that the
cross-sectional returns among n securities will be related to each other only through
common reactions to one or more of the k factors. Moreover, in the expected-return form,
E[rj], as E[ej]
becomes zero, aj is
assumed to capture all the expected non-factor-related aspects of the return on security
j, while each bji
is set so that each factor-related aspect is captured in the associated relationships.
-
- There is no assumption made about the common a and the tastes of the investors, such as time and
risk preferences, in the factor model. Thus, there is no guarantee that the return
generated by one security whose bji differ from those of the other securities will be different, since
each of their aj
can be adjusted so that the returns on all securities are identical. Nor can it not be
implied that a factor model for one period will be a good one for the next period, and
that a good factor model for one individual is applicable to another individual or all
other individuals.
-
- Many researchers attempt to identify the relevant and pervasive factors
to be included in their multi-factor models. Yet, Markowitz (1959) who develops and Sharpe
(1963) who simplifies the single-factor model are not satisfied with such implications
because it cannot be used to explain or derive the equilibrium rates of return on
securities being traded in the capital markets. The search for the equilibrium asset
pricing model consummates when Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Mossin (1966)
independently develop the CAPM and Ross (1976) the APT.
-
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Back to Top
- The missing assumptions about the common intercept term a and the investor preferences are
identified and included in the equilibrium models such as the CAPM and its extensions and
variations. The equilibrium model relates the expected rates of return on securities over
the next period to several attributes of those securities including the market's
agreed-upon a which is the
risk-free interest rate and the preferences of the investors. The basic CAPM assumes that
investors are risk-averse expected utility maximizers whose utility is a function of
wealth generated by expected returns from investment. The expected returns are related to
one attribute relative to the expected return on market portfolio. The model is given by:
E[rj] = rf + bj(E[rm] - rf)
- where
- E[rj] = expected rate of return on security j
- E[rm] = expected rate of return on market portfolio
- rf = rate of return on a risk-free security, i.e., interest
rate
- bj = Cov(rj,rm)/Var(rm)
- (E[rm] - rf) = market risk premium
-
- The CAPM Assumptions
- Perfect Competition: All investors behave as if they have no market
power over prices.
- Frictionless Markets: There are no transaction costs, taxes, or
restrictions on security trading. In addition, all assets and securities are infinitely
divisible and marketable.
- Homogeneous Beliefs: All investors have homogeneous prior belief and
Bayesian expectations and receive the same relevant information sets that affect market
prices.
- Individual Preferences: All investors care only about the risk-expected
return tradeoff.
- Individual Rationality: All investors are rational-expectations utility
maximizers.
- The CAPM Implications
-
- The bj
is a sensitivity measure of how the expected security return co-moves with the expected
return on the market portfolio. Since the market risk premium is positive because of the
risk-return tradeoff, the movement of security return perfectly matches with the movement
of the market return if bj
is 1.0 . If it is greater (less) than 1.0, security return is expected to move faster
(slower) than the market return. However, it should be noted that CAPM does not require a
linear relationship between the two returns. The expected return on security j derived
from CAPM is related to the bj
through the characteristic line called the security market line (SML) instead of
being related to its variance or standard deviation through the capital market line (CML)
as characterized by the MVE. One can assume investors to have preferences more than the
market risk premium when deriving their expected security return. Relaxation of the basic
CAPM's assumptions have been examined and modeled by many financial economists including:
- The heterogeneous-expectations version of CAPM by Lintner (1969)
- The CAPM with taxes implication by Brennan (1970)
- The zero-beta CAPM by Black (1972) assuming that riskless borrowing is
not possible
- The non-marketable (i.e., human capital) variation of CAPM by Mayers
(1972)
- The intertemporal CAPM by Merton (1973) to include investors' liquidity
preference
- The skewness-preference CAPM by Kraus and Litzenberger (1976)
- The consumption CAPM by Breeden (1979) based on aggregate real
consumption rate
- The utility-based CAPM by Brown and Gibbons (1985) for testing Breeden's
model
- The contingent-claims CAPM by Lo (1986) based on the contingent claims
analysis (CCA)
- The behavioral CAPM by Statman and Shefrin (1994) incorporating the
noise traders' beliefs
- The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) Back to Top
-
- Ross (1976) revisits the factor model and employs its approach to
develop an equilibrium asset pricing theory, which requires fewer assumptions than the
CAPM. He assumes that the expected security returns are generated by multiple k factors
instead of one pervasive market risk premium factor identified in the CAPM. The model
constructed from the APT is given by:
-
- rj = E[rj] + bj1l1 + bj2l2 + ... + bjklk + ej
- E[rj] = bj0l0 + bj1l1 + bj2l2 + ... + bjklk
- where
- rj = random rate of return on security j
- E[rj] = expected rate of return on security j
- li = value of the ith
factor, i = 0,1,2,...,k
- bji = sensitivity of the expected return to the ith factor
- bj0 = unity value since l0 is set to be a common factor for all securities
- ej = random residual
return on security j
- E[ej]
= zero
-
- The APT Assumptions
- The value of l0 is set to equal the risk-free rate to ensure the no-arbitrage
equilibrium.
- Factors identified are approximately linearly related to the expected
security return.
- The covariances with and among the factors can be positive, negative, or
zero.
- Markets are perfectly competitive, frictionless; and assets are
infinitely divisible.
- Individual investors have homogeneous beliefs and are
rational-expectations utility maximizers with unconstrained preferences, i.e., investors
are risk-neutral.
- The random residual returns on n securities are independent of the
factors with their expectations equal to zero.
- The APT Implications
-
- Since the APT has no restriction about investor preferences, it is more
difficult to identify the pervasive factors that affect significant numbers of securities
and less powerful to provide associated relationships between expected returns and
security attributes than the CAPM. However, it combines the benefit of having the common
intercept factor, i.e., the risk-free rate, of the CAPM and the flexibility of identifying
more than one attribute of the factor model to generate the desirable expected returns.
Nevertheless, the relationship between multiple betas and the sensitivities to their
factors must be determined. The estimate of the market beta for a security is given by:
-
- bj = bj1bF1 + bj2bF2 + ... + bjkbFk
- where
- bj = beta of security j
to the change in market portfolio return
- bFi = beta of the ith
factor to the change in the market return, i = 1,2,...,k
- bji = sensitivity of bj to bFi
-
- If expected returns are generated by a k-factor model, bj in the CAPM becomes the terms
on the right-hand side of the above equation. Thus, the k-factor CAPM is given by:
-
- E[rj] = rf + (E[rm] - rf)(bj1bF1 + bj2bF2 + ... + bjkbFk)
- E[rj] = rf + bj1{(E[rm]-rf)bF1} + bj2{(E[rm]-rf)bF2} + ... + bjk{(E[rm]-rf)bFk}
- where
- rf = l0
- (E[rm]-rf)bFi = li, i = 1,2,...,k
-
- Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983) offer a generalization of the APT with
an approximate factor structure with the no-arbitrage assumption being replaced by the
assumption that the price functional (p) is continuous. Reisman (1988) provides a simple proof of the generalized APT
using the Hahn Banach theorem when the security payoffs have an approximate factor
structure. He concludes that the general formulation of the APT which allows an infinite
dimensional factor space may be use in the extension of the theory to the dynamic case.
Even with Reisman's proof, the use of the mathematical theory of Banach is still far
beyond layperson's understanding. Until recently, Shanken (1992) supplies an alternative
proof of Reisman's result.
-
- The conclusion of Reisman's proof is that the infinite space of expected
returns is approximately equal to some linear function of the securities' factor betas.
Shanken attempts to show that if the betas on factors (F) are approximately proportional
to the betas on a proxy (P), then expected returns are approximately equal to a linear
function of the betas on P. The factor representation for the first N security returns is
given in vector form as:
-
- rN = a*N + bNF + eN
-
- where
- E[eN]
= Cov(eN,F) = 0
-
- Let CN be the N x N covariance matrix for eN and let u be an upper bound
on the eigenvalues of CN. By the approximate factor model assumption, u can be
taken to be independent of N.
-
- Theorem: If returns conform to an approximate factor structure
and there is no arbitrage, then expected returns are approximately linear in the betas on
any proxy that is correlated with the factor.
-
- Lemma 1: Let ep be the residual from a regression of P on F and a constant, and let
dN be the N-vector of covariances between ep and the components of eN. Then d_NdN £ Var(ep)u.
-
- Lemma 2: If returns conform to an approximate factor structure,
then the betas on P are approximately proportional to the betas on F. If P and F are
correlated, then the betas on F are approximately proportional to the betas on P.
-
Empirical Studies in Portfolio Theory, Factor Models, CAPM,
and APT Back to Top
- Many of the empirical studies and testing conducted in the areas of
portfolio diversification, factor models, CAPM, and APT have been subject to mixed
sentiments and criticisms. On the applications of portfolio theory, there have been strong
advocacy for diversification across assets with a wide range of risk-classes (i.e., mixed
assets) as well as across national borders (i.e., multinational and global assets). As
noted by Friedman (1971), diversifying portfolios in both financial and real assets (e.g.,
real estate) can further improve portfolio efficiency. Curcio (1983), and Webb, Curcio,
and Rubens (1988) investigate the risk-reduction gains from mixed-asset diversification
and find that the correlation between the returns on financial assets and real estate is
less than the correlation among the returns on the assets within either class alone.
Grubel (1968) observes that diversification of portfolios across countries results in
further reduction in portfolio risk. Indirect cross-border diversification through
multinational firms' stocks can also reduce systematic risk, as suggested by Errunza and
Senbet (1981) and Adler and Dumas (1983). Both dimensions of portfolio diversification can
be combined to form the international/global mixed-asset portfolios in order to drive down
systematic risk even further as suggested by Curcio and Ziobrowski (1991). By using the
data on financial assets including T-bills and bonds, corporate bonds common stocks and
three types of real estate (commercial, residential, and farmland) for the U.S., the U.K.
and Japan from 1973 to 1987 with returns adjusted to reflect exchange rate variations but
omitting taxes, transaction costs, hedging gains, and short-selling restriction, they find
that, over long horizon, the global mixed-asset portfolios perform the best trailing by
domestic (U.S.) mixed and foreign financial assets, domestic and foreign financial assets,
domestic mixed assets, and domestic financial assets, respectively.
-
- In the area of factor models, two types of factor analysis are
differentiated: covariance factors and expected returns factors. The first involves the
time-series autocorrelational studies between specific stock returns and their event
factors, e.g., macrofactors, microfactors, and industry factors. The second deals with the
cross-sectional returns variability due to firm's specific factors such as risk,
liquidity, price level, growth potential, and technical factors. There are attempts to
empirically identify relevant factors and estimate the associated values as follows. King
(1966) uses market and industry factors while Feeney and Hester (1967) employ principal
components analysis to identify cross-sectional factors. Elton and Gruber (1973) estimate
the dependence structure of stock prices. Fama and MacBeth (1973) attempt to test expected
returns factor model for equilibrium setting. Farrell (1974) analyzes covariance of stock
returns to determine the groupings of homogeneous stocks. Rosenberg and Marathe (1975) use
multifactor model to estimate and predict systematic and residual risks. Arnott (1980)
relies on cluster analysis to identify covariance factors that determine stock price
movement. Sharpe (1982) identifies expected returns factors in the NYSE using multifactor
model. Estep, Hanson, and Johnson (1983) attempt to find the multiple factors which
determine both stock prices and risk. Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein (1985) identify
book-to-price ratios as another pervasive factor beside market risk premium which
influence stock returns. Fama and French (1992, 1995, 1996) add size factor and
book-to-price ratios to the CAPM and propose it as the three factor model to explain most
of the market anomalies. Haugen and Baker (1996) employ all firm's specific factors in
their cross-sectional, cross-national factor model and conclude that they are common to
all stocks in all major equity markets around the world.
-
- As Roll (1977) argues on the CAPM's front, the definitive tests of CAPM
can never be performed simply because it is intended to be an ex ante, not ex post, model.
Moreover, the definition and measurement of the market portfolio is still doubtful in the
sense that whether or not other low-liquidity and non-domestic assets such as real estate,
foreign assets, commodity, and collectible items should be or are actually included. His
argument is supported by the fact that, even if capital markets are efficient and the CAPM
is valid, the cross-sectional SML cannot be used as a means to measure the ex post
performance of portfolio selection models as a result of the following realities:
- Because of various actual trading restrictions such as unlimited
riskless borrowing and short-selling, investors may not be able to hold MVE frontier
portfolios.
- Due to the fact that security returns are not normally distributed,
investors may have skewness preferences and end up holding inefficient portfolios.
- Since transaction costs and taxes affect security returns, investors who
face different costs may take inefficient portfolio positions gross of cost.
- Investors may suboptimize their portfolio positions when holding
indivisible assets such as their own human capital (i.e., the present value of their
future earnings).
- To perform the ex post tests, the expectations models must be
transformed into the realizations models both in the time-serial and cross-sectional
forms:
-
- Time-Serial Form:
- rjt - rft = (rmt - rft)bj + ejt
- where
- e = actual residual returns
-
- Cross-Sectional Form:
- rpt = l0 + l1bp + ept
- where
- p = portfolio
-
- The tests of CAPM are chronologized as follows. The direct test of CAPM
is first conducted by Douglas (1969) who finds that the time-serial average returns on
securities over seven periods of five years from 1926 to 1960 are positively related to
their variances. Lintner (1969) uses the cross-sectional data from 1954 to 1963 to test
the variance of residual returns and observes that the risk-free rate is higher and the
SML is flatter than expected by the CAPM. Another cross-sectional study is conducted by
Blume and Friend (1970, 1973) on portfolios of stocks listed on the NYSE from 1960 to
1968. Using the Jensen, Treynor, and Sharpe ratios, they find that low-beta stocks tend to
be undervalued while high-beta stocks overvalued. Lintner's study is retested by Miller
and Scholes (1972) using different data set with similar conclusions. Black, Jensen, and
Scholes (1972) examine the average returns on ten NYSE portfolios from 1931 to 1965 and
find a linear relationship between risk and return. Fama and MacBeth (1973) increase the
number of portfolios to twenty and the time span from 1926 to 1968 using five-year
sub-periods. They obtain similar results to those of Black, Jensen, and Scholes with
additional findings that the betas are non-linear.
-
- Other CAPM tests are conducted in conjunction with the tests of markets
efficiency under their joint hypothesis. Basu (1977) tests the low price-earnings-ratio
stocks based on monthly returns on portfolios from 1957 to 1971 and find them to
outperform the CAPM's forecast. Banz (1981) examines returns on stock portfolios together
with the size effect and find that firm size had negative relationship with returns.
Reinganum (1981) studies stock market returns to earnings announcements between 1975 and
1977 and concludes that portfolios based on size and earnings-price ratios exhibit
abnormal monthly returns that persist for at least two years. Levy (1978) and Mayshar
(1979, 1981, 1983) propose a non-CAPM explanation for size effect. Rosenberg, Reid, and
Lanstein (1985) look at monthly stock returns from 1973 to 1980 and show that
book-to-price ratios and return reversals help explain stock returns performance.
Lakonishok and Shapiro (1986) test the twenty-year monthly stock returns from 1962 to 1981
using the same technique as Fama and MacBeth and find that neither beta nor variance is
significant in predicting returns.
-
- Most notably, Fama and French (1992) examine stock returns from two
sample periods from 1963 to 1990 and 1940 to 1990 using 100 portfolios from NYSE, AMEX,
and NASDAQ and find that size and book-to-price ratios are related to monthly returns but
beta is not related when controlled for size factor. Their conclusion is that size and
book-to-price ratios can be the proxies for non-market risk factor and that returns in
excess of market risk premium can be the results of investors' irrational overreaction.
Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishney (1994) test the contrarian strategies and conclude that
value stocks outperform growth and glamour stocks. Kothari, Shanken, and Sloan (1995)
examine a cross-section of annualized expected returns from 1927 to 1990 and find a
significant relationship between beta and returns, and a weak relationship between
book-to-price ratios and returns. Fama and French (1995) attempt to explain the size and
book-to-price ratios anomalies and find that both of them are persistently related to
earnings, while size is more highly related to annual returns than book-to-price ratios.
Jaganathan and Wang (1993) argue that betas vary over the business cycle and develop a
three-beta model. Fama and French (1996) propose a three factor model which can explain
most market anomalies found by CAPM and provide its explanation that multiple common
sources of variation in returns are necessary, that investors' irrational behavior may not
cause anomalies, and that spurious betas result from survivor bias, data snooping, and bad
market proxies. Haugen and Baker (1996) suggest two alternative approaches to tackle
market anomalies by using the multiple factor model and the behavioral model. For the
first approach, forty-one factors are grouped into six firm characteristics namely, 10
risk factors, 4 liquidity factors, 10 price factors, 9 growth potential factor, 7
technical factors, and 1 sectoral factor. The results are that 1) stocks with higher
expected and realized rate of return are lower in risk than stocks with lower returns, 2)
important determinants of expected stock returns are common to the major equity markets
around the world, and 3) the efficient markets hypothesis should be rejected.
-
- Tests of APT, though occurred about ten years later than those of CAPM,
are less controversial because the APT itself requires no assumptions about returns
distribution, investor preferences, and market portfolio, while being able to predict
relative pricing of any subset of securities. Roll and Ross (1980) embark on empirical
investigation of APT by looking at daily returns on NYSE and AMEX stocks between 1962 and
1972. After correcting for dependence between mean and standard deviation that
lognormality causes, they find that total variance of returns does not add explanatory
power to the model. They also find the same result for the intercept term which proves
that APT is robust and should not be rejected. Reinganum (1981) forms portfolios of like
factors based on previous years' returns and finds excess returns. His conclusion is to
reject the APT. Shanken (1982) questions the testability of the APT that 1) since it
requires a large number of securities to approximate returns, it may not work on smaller
samples, and 2) since the basic construct of APT is the linear factor model, it means that
different grouping of stocks may result in different slope coefficients which would be
inconsistent. Chen (1983) groups stocks into high-market value and low-market value groups
and finds that grouping based on market value is not significant. He also compares the
results with those from CAPM and finds that APT explains significant part of CAPM's
residual but not vice versa. Chen, Roll, and Ross (1983) use four macroeconomic factors in
the APT, i.e., index of industrial production, ratio of inflation, yield spread between
T-bonds and BB corporate bonds, and yield spread on short-term and long-term bonds. Connor
(1983) tests the Nash or competitive equilibrium APT and finds it can eliminate the need
to assume an infinite number of securities for the market portfolio. Roll and Ross (1984)
critically reexamine the empirical evidence on the APT and argue that it is testable and
can be use in strategic portfolio planning. Dybvic and Ross (1985) address Shanken's
critique by noting that returns explained by factor structure in actual securities is much
different from returns explained by factor structure in arbitrary portfolios. Wei (1988)
uses Nash equilibrium APT by adding market portfolio as another factor which effectively
combines CAPM and APT. Robin and Shukla (1991) examine the monthly returns from 1976 to
1985 using the Chicago's Research on Security Prices (CRSP) data and find that pricing
errors and variance are high and statistically significant. Chatterjee and Pari (1990) use
a non-parametric method to estimate factors for APT and find that the number of factors
increase linearly with the number of securities. Shukla and Trzcinka (1990) employ
principal components method to identify the factors and find that 40% of variation in
returns can be explained in a five-dimensional APT model. Mei (1993) use the data from
1963 to 1990 and find that APT can explain size and dividend yield but fails to explain
book-to-price ratios and price-earnings ratios.
-
Conclusion Back to Top
- It is overwhelm to give a precise conclusion about modern investment
theory amid its structural successes and empirical flaws. Yet, without theoretical grounds
to be contrasted against, we would by no means be realized that there are no simple ways
to explain the actual behavior of financial assets' prices and returns. Modern investment
theory should be perceived as the indispensable building block for every academician and
practitioner to start off, but not to be engrossed, with. Our judgement should be based
upon benefit/cost analysis it contributes/incurs to our understanding about and stakes in
the real-world investment phenomena. Academically, as Friedman (1953) suggests, theories
should be judged not on the basis of their assumptions but rather on the validity of their
predictions. Practically, the techniques of modern investment theory have enabled
individuals to make their investment decisions wisely with clear purposes and criteria.
Thus, it depends on which of the two relative stances we take in order to justify the
trade-offs between adopting and rejecting the modern investment theory.
- Today, we have quite enough empirical evidence to comfortably reject
most of the works done during the last forty years. But, such rejection should not mislead
us to favor other alternative paradigms altogether for they are also subject to the same
destiny as the current ones. As Sharpe (1984) concludes, "While the relative
importance of various factors changes over time, as do the preferences of investors, we
need not completely abandon a valuable framework within which we can approach investment
decision methodically. We have developed a useful set of tools and should certainly
continue to develop them. Meanwhile, we can use the tools we have, as long as we use them
intelligently, cautiously, and humbly."
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* Worapot Ongkrutaraksa is a lecturer
in Finance and Strategic Management at Maejo University's Faculty of Agricultural
Business, Chiang Mai, Thailand. He used to conduct his post-graduate research in financial
economics at Kent State University and international political economy at Harvard
University through the Fulbright sponsorship between 1995 and 1998.
E-mail: [email protected]
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