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The Boston Celtics 2005

      I never know where to begin these things. Why don�t we start with my prediction for this year and then I�ll explain my reasoning for it. Obviously all of these predictions are based on my two usual conditions; there are no major injuries and no major trades. Either one can completely change the make-up of a team and have a huge effect on its season. With that said I am predicting that the Boston Celtics to repeat as Atlantic division champions and advance to at least the second round of the play-offs. That�s what I think is going to happen. However, this team could go in some other directions. Things could go wrong in that the development of the young guys is slow and they do not reach the potential I think they have. On the other hand, things could gel throughout the season; they could hit their stride and actually contend for the title. Now I know reading that makes you think I am insane, or at least a homer, but I will explain where I am coming from.

     Before I get into each individual player lets look at the changes that have been made between last year�s team and this year�s team. The biggest changes are obviously the departures of Gary Payton and Antoine Walker. Most people would think that the loss of two former All-stars would hurt a basketball team. In this case, I disagree completely. Gary Payton did a heck of a job for the Celtics last season. He provided the veteran leadership they needed along with some much need scoring in the half court set. However, Payton was also a hindrance to the team. His defense was appalling. He may have been The Glove in his prime but last year he couldn�t cover anyone. His defensive highlight was in the play-offs against Reggie Miller. He only played him well because it was a match-up of old guys and unlike with Tony Allen, the refs gave Payton some respect and didn�t call him for a foul every time Reggie shot the ball. Along with his defensive liabilities, Payton also caused problems on offence. There was many an occasion where he would go into the huddle during a time out here the play which Doc Rivers called and then run what ever play he wanted completely ignoring Doc. The other problem he had was at the end of games he would slow everything down and stop the team from running. This is the exact opposite from what Doc and the Celtics want to do. The whole point of being a running team is to run all game so that your opponent is tired in the 4th quarter and you can out run them. Payton wanted to slow things down and take control. It�s not necessarily a bad thing it�s just not what the Celtics are looking to do. Especially seeing last year they completely lacked a low post presence and struggled in the half court set. When you take all of this into consideration the bad far out weighs the good. So as I see, while some people see it as losing a talented veteran, to me it�s addition by subtraction. Also, if you look at the two games the Celtics played while Payton was �vacationing� in Atlanta, the Celtics played pretty damn good without him.

     As far as Antoine Walker goes, well, it�s basically the same story. The addition of Walker last season was just what the team needed at that time. They came out of the all-star break a little sluggish and needed some sort of spark. Adding Walker was just that. When Walker first rejoined the team he played the way Rick Patino, Tommy Hiensohn, and even Danny Ainge always dreamed he would. He played down low on both sides of the court. He rebounded on both sides; he didn�t force shots or gun threes. He was the all around great player he was supposed to be coming out of Kentucky. However, this only lasted 11 games. After that he returned to the same old Walker. The Walker Ainge ran out of town when he first took over the Celtics. This Walker is a hindrance to the team as well as a hindrance to the development of Big Al Jefferson, the future of the Boston Celtics. So while the boost he gave the team last season was great sand the play-off experience, even the embarrassing game 7 loss, was invaluable to the development of the young guys, again, like with Payton, the bad way out weighs the good. It�s another example of addition by subtraction.

     Those are the two biggest changes that the team has undergone since the end of last season. Obviously they have added other players since then but I think it�s the loss of Walker and Payton that change the make up and the personality of the team. As most �experts� will tell you, these two subtractions make the Celtics a very young team. However, I disagree that it�s going to be as big of a problem as most of these �experts� seem to think. I�m going to discuss the other changes to the team�s roster as I break down the positions. I�m going to break it up into three categories, point guards, swingmen, and bigs. I�m using these positional groupings because all of the bigs, both the power forwards and the centers are interchangeable as are the shooting guards and small forwards. So grouping them this way is just the easiest way of doing it.

The Wingmen:
       This is the most talented group of players on the Celtics as well as the deepest position. There is a mix of youth and experience at the wing positions to go along with a mix of defense and offence. Doc Rivers has many different combinations he can go with according to what kind of play he is looking for. He can go defensive or offensive, big or small. Here is how each player looks going into this season.

     Paul Pierce--Pierce is one of the top 3 wingmen in the league. He really doesn�t get the credit he deserves. Last year he was second in the league in rebounding by non-bigs. He shot the highest percentages of his career averaged over 6 rebounds and 4 assists and people keep saying he had a down year. Once he got a little comfortable in Doc�s system (Pierce�s third system in 4 years) he really started to show what he can do. All this talk about him being upset and wanting out of Boston has been blow way out of proportion. Not that there haven�t been problems, there have. It�s just not anywhere near as bad as people make it out to be. The problem is Pierce hates to lose so when he is at a game and the Celtics are not winning he looks unhappy. He is, he�s upset they are losing, he�s not upset with the team or the coach or the city. He�s just upset the team is losing. You want that in a player. I fully expect him to have one of the best seasons of his career. He is probably surrounded with the most talent he has ever been and he is perfect for Doc�s system. He has had a year in the system and is really looking comfortable in it. Add in the fact that Doc is looking to use Pierce as a two guard more with a big three to create match-up problems and the fact that teams will have a harder time double and triple teaming him with the players around him and Pierce could explode this season. Obviously he is the Celtics� best player and the season will hinge on just how well he plays, not just his numbers but how well he fits in with the team concept. I see no reason not to think he is going to have a big year.

     Ricky Davis�Too many people still think Ricky is the same player that played in Cleveland. He�s not. He has matured incredibly since becoming a Celtic. He has become the ultimate team player. He has done everything Doc has asked of him from coming off the bench to playing spot minutes as the point guard. He�s uber talented on both ends of the court and is even better suited for Doc�s up-tempo system then Pierce is. It seems this year Doc is going to start Ricky instead of bringing him off the bench. While I�m not completely sold on this idea is seems to have been rather effective in the preseason. Doc has also stated that he plans on keeping one of either Ricky of Pierce on the floor at all times. I think this is the most important part. Ricky is the idea number two man. He is willing to play second fiddle to Pierce when he has to and he is capable of carrying the team when he has to. Sure, he poses after every dunk no matter what the score is but if that�s the worst thing Ricky�s going to do then the Celtics have themselves an excellent starting 2 guard.

     Tony Allen�Allen was the team�s starting two guard for most of last season. However, after a promising summer league he ran into both legal trouble and physical problems. Now, I don�t know what�s going to happen with the legal stuff so I�m not going to deal with it. I�m just going to talk about his on court life. Allen has shown lots of potential, especially on the defensive end of the court. His offence, which was his biggest weak spot, seemed to be coming around before his injury. Allen fits the Celtics� system very well. However, I am afraid that after losing an entire training camp and the start of the season that Allen may have lost his spot in the rotation, if not on the team. This isn�t a knock on Allen. The problem is that his absence has given an opportunity to guys like Ryan Gomes and Justin Reed. Even when Allen is cleared medically to play he is still going to need some time to get into game shape and to become re-acclimated to the system. If Gomes and/or Reed show they can play and contribute to the team then I think Allen may find himself the odd man out. This could be a repeat of last season where Jiri Welsch was traded a month or so into the season when Allen showed he could play.

     Ryan Gomes�After following Gomes for his entire four-year career at Providence College I was a little concerned when the Celtics drafted him even with him being just a second rounder. While he dominated in his college days as an All American power forward, he was obviously too small to play there on the pro level. The Celtics drafted him to be a small forward, or more specifically, a power three. While I had no doubt about Gomes� ability to score and rebound in the NBA at the small forward position, I feared he would not be able to defend the position. There�s a big difference between a power forward and a small forward. They are not interchangeable like a shooting guard and a small forward or a power forward and a center. They are really different types of positions. Through the exhibition season I was pleasantly surprised by Gomes� ability to play the three. It seems as if his defense will not be a liability and it will allow him to stay on the floor and get his minutes. With those minutes I expect Gomes will make a large contribution to the Celtics. I don�t expect him to put up impressive numbers or compete for the rookie of the year award. What I expect him to do is to bring his high basketball I.Q. to the court every night and to make his share of plays. He�s going to do the little things to help the team win. He�s the type of role player that every team needs to win. He�ll allow guys like Pierce and Ricky to excel by being in the right place at the right time and by making hustle plays that will allow them to do their thing.

     Justin Reed--Reed reminds me of a taller Tony Allen. A lock down defender on the wing with an inadequate offensive game. Reed�s offence is ahead of Allen�s but is still under par. He is a power forward by nature, just as Gomes is, and he has a nice post game against smaller defenders but his out side game is lacking, which is important if he is going to play the wing. He is actually better then Allen on the break, as he is bigger and finishes better around the basket then Allen does when he�s not dunking. Reed�s excellent defense will assure him a job on the team and at least some match-up minutes but his uselessness in the half court set is going to hold him back for a while as it did Tony Allen.

     Gerald Green�Green, the Celtics number one draft pick this season, fell into the Celtics� lap at number 18. Widely considered a top 5 pick before the draft, Green seems to have all the physical tools to be a start player in the NBA. He can shoot from anywhere are the court and can jump out of the building. However, he is only 18 years old and straight out of high school. He has to work on his fundamentals and defense and he has to develop an NBA body. Green probably won�t play much, if at all on the NBA level; he may see time with the Florida Flame of the D-league. The plan with Green seems to be the same one they used with Kendrick Perkins. They are going to keep him on the bench and have him work on his physique and his fundamentals. He may not be much help this season but the future looks bright for this kid.

The Big Men:
      The Celtics boast a solid but unspectacular group of big men. While they are suddenly deep at the position with the reemergence of Mark Blount, they only have one real down low presence. It is, however a undervalued defensive unit and a very good shooting unit. I truly think that the big men for the Celtics will produce much better then people think although their production will be spread out between all five guys.

    Raef LaFrentz�Raef appears to be the starting power forward at least to start the season. Raef is still recovering from knee surgery from two years ago and the belief is always that it takes two years to full recover so his knees should be the best they�ve been in quite some time. Raef is an excellent shoot, especially from beyond the arc. He is very good at spreading the floor and opening up things for the guards to go to the hoop. He is great as a spot up shooter on dish outs from penetrating guards. His down low game doesn�t really exist but he is a better rebounder and down low defender then people give him credit for. Raef may not be the prototypical power forward but the Celtics use him very well and play to his strengths making him very effective. There�s no reason why Raef shouldn�t have another solid season for team green.

     Mark Blount�Blount was a major disappointment last season. Not because he didn�t put up huge numbers but because he seemed to stop trying. He seemed to give up on the team. He didn�t seem to care. This preseason Blount the Mark Blount from 2 years ago has returned. While he hasn�t put up major, he has played well and more importantly, with passion. If Blount keeps up the intensity and gives his all out on the court, he will be a very productive player. He is one of the highest percentage shooters in the league, which is quite the accomplishment seeing he shoots so many jump shots. His rebounding has still been lacking but at least he is making an effort. His 18-foot jump shot is a very good weapon especially when the opposing big men drop down to help protect the basket. Blount�s probably not going to average a double-double like he did in the second half of 2003-2004 but he seems to have reemerged as a productive player for the Celtics.

     Al Jefferson�Big Al is the future of this franchise and is their most talented big man. However, Al still has a lot of developing to do. His offensive skills are already spectacular. He can play with his back to the basket, and is the only Celtic big to really do so, face up, and has even developed a 12-foot jump shot. He has great footwork and a bevy of moves down low. On the offensive side of the ball Al just needs to play his game and he will be a major contributor this season. On the defensive side of the ball is where Big Al still struggles. His rebounding and shot blocking abilities are very good but his man-to-man defense and his team defense needs to be improved. Having lost most of training camp to an ankle sprain has hurt Al. He needs to get into better game shape so he does not tire when playing long stretches. Most importantly, he needs to stay out of foul trouble. This is the biggest whole in Big Al�s game. Once he can learn to stay on the floor Al will become a solid, if not great player in this league. Being only one season removed from high school Al is already developing ahead of schedule. Hopefully this development will continue and he will blossom this year.

     Kendrick Perkins�Perkins seems as if he is going to be the odd man out in the big man rotation this season. This is the biggest impact Blount�s good play has had. Perkins is the muscle of the Celtics and an excellent shot blocker. He is probably the best down low defender on the Celtics. However, he has even more trouble staying out of foul trouble then Big Al does. Once Perk learns not to try and block every shot or to pick up dumb fouls, he will be able to really help this team. Right now the fouls are not really a problem as he is going to see limited minutes but if he is ever going to emerge as a solid big man, this is the biggest area he needs to improve in. On offence Perk is, well, challenged. He really has no offensive game except for being the best outlet passer on the team. This is not a problem though. The Celtics have plenty of guys who can score the ball as they say. They need Perk to be a defensive presence and a rebounder. This he does very well. His offence should consist of put backs on offensive rebounds and on dunks from lay downs by penetrating guards. Add into that any baskets he can score running the floor and that�s all the offence the Celtics would want from him. Barring a let down from Blount or an injury to one of the other bigs, it doesn�t look like Perk is going to be playing many minutes. He does take it in stride and will make the most of the minutes he does get.

     Brian Scalabrine�Veal, as he is called, is the only guy on the team who doesn�t really fit into any of my categories. While Reed and Gomes may see limited minutes at the four spot, Veal is more likely to split time between the power forward and small forward spots. Scalabrine brings a lot of hustle and energy to the Celtics. He is a walking Tommy point as they say. He won�t blow anyone away with his numbers but he will do the little things to help the team win.   He�s a scrapper, a smart player, and a vocal leader in the locker room and on the floor. He�s going to be a very good role player for team green and will accept any role Doc wants him to play. He will bring it every night of the year and leave everything he has on the floor. He will annoy the other team and their fans by grabbing offensive rebounds or winning the race to a lose ball or coming up with a steal. If his jump shot stays with him he is useful in the half court offense. He�s not flashy, he�s not going to wow you, and he looks too much like Michael Rapaport, but he will help this team win games.

The Point Guards:
       This is the biggest question mark for the Celtics this season. They have four point guards on the roster but Marcus Banks is hurt and won�t be back until at least the All-Star break if at all. The other three guards are very unproven. They bring different things to the game and are a versatile group but they are very inexperienced and very young as a group. I think they will be better then people think but they will definitely be the weak point of the team and hopefully not a liability.

     Marcus Banks�I figure I�ll start with Banks to get him out of the way. Banks is one of the best defensive guards in the league. He is fast with and without the ball and can get up and down the court better then anyone in the league. However his offense is still lacking. His scoring ability is good but his point guard abilities are not. Because of his injury he will not be playing at all in the fist half of the season so he really doesn�t figure into the team�s plan right now.

     Delonte West�West is probably has the most overall talent of any of the point guards. He doesn�t do anything great, except for shooting, but he does everything well. He�s a good one-on-one defender and a good team defender. He has a very high basketball I.Q. and is a good hustler. His ball handling skills are probably the weakest part of his game but they are improving. West is another guy that won�t put up huge numbers but will do a lot of little things to help a team win. There has been speculation lately that West will not be the starting point guard as he was in the preseason. He is to lose the job to Orien Greene. Personally I think West should play with the starters because his skills will be more effective and more valuable there. His shooting ability will keep teams from doubling off of him onto Pierce and Ricky and he will be a good option for kick outs when Pierce and Ricky drive the lane. His lack of play making skills will be covered up by Pierce and Ricky�s ability and tendency to run the offence. I think what Greene brings to the game will be much more needed in the second unit.

     Orien Greene�Greene, who was the Celtics last pick in this year�s draft, has been the surprise of training camp. He easily beat out Dan Dickau for the back up point guard spot and may even overtake West as the starter. He�s a good-sized point guard at 6-4. Greene is not a scorer. He isn�t a particularly good shooter and has been turning down open shots all preseason. This is his biggest weak spot. He has to develop a jumper just to keep the opposing defense honest. As soon as there is some video of him playing for the other teams to scout they are going to see that they can sag off of him and use his defender to double team other players. While his shooting, and willingness to shoot has to improve, Greene brings a lot to the court. He is a pass first point guard and a playmaker. He has shown great court vision and an ability to make some nifty passes. Greene makes good decisions on the fast break and is easily the best fast break point guard on the Celtics. He pushes the ball up the court and looks for the open man. He will be an important part of the up-tempo offence. Greene also brings defense to the point guard spot. Greene has shown an ability to play both one-on-one and team defense. If he keeps progressing he will be the player they hoped Banks would be, a point guard who would harass the other team on defense and push the ball on offence. Hopefully all of this promise that Greene has shown will continue in the regular season when the games count. He could be a real steal from this year�s draft.

     Dan Dickau�Let me be the first to say I really liked the Dickau signing. I knew his defense was going to be a liability but I thought he fit the offence very well and I thought he could help push the tempo. Well, his preseason has been very disappointing. Not only has his defense proved to be worse then anyone could have imagined, but the offence wasn�t there either. His shot was not there during the preseason but he is a good shooter so it should be there during the season. His running of the offence wasn�t good enough to make up for his lack of defense so he has been relegated to third string. I have not given up on Dickau, I still think he�s has something he can contribute to this team. Hopefully when he gets more comfortable with the team and in the system he will settle down and become a viable player on the team. The good thing is that with the emergence of Orien Greene, the Celtics are not relying on him to play big minutes or make major contributions.

     As I�ve stated, this Celtics team may be very young but it�s also very talented. I expect a very good season from the guys in green. While they may be relying on the young guys to contribute, they still have plenty of vets they can lean on. If the young guys develop the way they should and the team sticks with the system Doc has installed, they should be fine. I expect them to start off a little slow but as the season goes on and they start to really gel they should develop into a team to be reckoned with. I hate the fact that they get dismissed just because they are a young team. Just because they don�t have any 35-year-old vets taking up roster spots doesn�t mean they can�t win. The Celtics have won playing young guys in the past and there is no reason they can�t do it again. They can still put vets on the floor when it matters at every position except the point guard spot. Even there they could put Dickau if they really wanted a vet. Most of the �experts� picked the Celtics to miss the play-offs or barely squeak in. I think those �experts� have a big surprise waiting for them at the end of the season.

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