C.A.T.S. has become the rallying cry for the space movement. When the payload cost of LEO (low earth orbit) has been reduced to under $1000 per pound, the free enterprise system will take over and the rush to space will begin in earnest. There are several initiatives under way. The question: WHEN AND HOW. The answer is probably below:
The X PRIZE was founded on May 18, 1996 in St. Louis for the specific purpose of stimulating the creation of a new generation of launch vehicles designed to carry passengers into space. The $10 million X�PRIZE is modeled after the early aviation prizes. Between 1905 and 1935, hundreds of aviation prizes stimulated the creation of very different aircraft designs, each of which explored different regions of flight and different mechanisms for optimizing speed, safety and low cost travel. Today the X�PRIZE is attempting to do the same. Since inception in 1996, 20 teams have registered from five countries. To date the prize is only half funded. Some of the teams are less than impressive and others seem only interested in capturing the prize, with little regard for truly creating a viable launch system. An example of this is the boast of one team that they will use 1940's technology. It is difficult for me to conceive of a valid system based on that. The fact is the prize is too small to bring aboard the players needed to make CATS a reality. NASA should sponsor the prize and the amount should be $1 billion.��
The RLV (Reusable Launch Vehicle), will ultimately be the key to achieving low-cost payloads. There are efforts under way by a few companies to nominally lower launch costs by simplifying multi-stage systems. In my opinion these efforts are the equivalent of adding inflatable tires to horse carts and they are of no long range consequence.
The Roton Rocket and the Douglas DCX were promosing projects that have now fallen by the wayside. Roton is currently dormant due to funding problems and the DCX was canceled by Douglas when Lockmart was awarded the X33 Venturestar contract. Venturestar was a pork barrel project from the start and destined never to fly. NASA killed the funding for X33 this month and of course, the Lockmart weasels will not invest a nickel of their own in completing the project.
The most promising candidate at this point may be Kistler Aerospace Corporation. The Kistler K-1 Rocket is a 2 stage, fully reusable, unmanned, LEO vehicle that has a tentative operational date of 2002. If they succeed launch costs may be cut by 50%. |
