BIGFFBL's very own fantasy guru
Reviewing last season
As some of you might remember from last year, I wrote a couple articles about last year's draft. Some of them included QB Double Up, Early Kickers, and Drafting D's. I'd like to go back to some of them articles and see how some teams did who got caught up in some of these drafting no no's.
We'll start out with QB Double Up's. I talked about six teams who got caught in this trend and we'll take a look at how they fared at the end of the season.
Team Goo: Drafted Kurt Warner at 2.09 and Jeff Garcia at 4.11.
End of year record: 5-9
What happened? Kurt Warner just didn't pan out in St. Louis after a horrible start and lost his job to a younger Marc Bulger. Garcia didn't have a horrible year because his 7 rushing touchdowns kept his stats up. But with that wasted pick at 2.09, that cost Goo some depth last year at his RB and WR positions.
Inside Straights: Brett Farve (keeper) and Mike Vick at 3.03
End of year record: 6-8
What happened? This one is obvious. It was apparent that Mike wanted to draft for the future by wasting a third rounder on Vick. That cost him depth at other positions and even though Favre was a top 10 QB last year, it just wasn't enough to keep the Straights above .500.
Air JC: Donovan McNabb at 1.04 and Drew Bledsoe at 5.04
End of year record: 6-8
What happened? Well when you take two QB's in your first 5 picks and they are both busts on the year, that just makes for a looooooong season.
Team Tang: Duante Culpepper (keeper) and Tommy Maddox at 6.05
End of year record: 5-9
What happened? Culpepper put up some great stats last year but to take Maddox this early, just wasn't worth not having any depth at the WR and RB position. Take away Culpepper and this team would have had a 2-12 record guarenteed.
Flying Hellfish: Rich Gannon at 2.04 and Drew Brees at 6.04
End of year record: 4-10
What happened? Drafting Gannon at a spot where he could have gotten him one or two rounds later at least, wasn't a good idea, especiallly when both of these guys were busts on the season.
Wong's LD's: Matt Hasselbeck at 5.11 and Tom Brady at 6.09
End of year record: 5-9
What happened? Even though both of these QB's were top 10 at the end of the year, that just doesn't make up for the lack of depth that Wong had at RB last season. I'm sure that Wong had a few weeks where the phrase "I shoulda started the other guy instead". Kinda sucks to say that doesn't it?
What do all these teams have in common on this list you ask? All the teams who drafted two QB's in the first six rounds had a record UNDER 500. Excluding Culpepper, when the difference between the top QB and the 15th best QB is only 4 points a game, why risk depth at other posititons?
Another article that I wrote after last year's draft was called Early Kickers. At a position where the top 5 change on a yearly basis, why do people draft kickers so damn early? Let's take a look at who drafted early kickers last year and how they ended up at the end of the year......
Team Juice: Jason Elam at 8.06
End of year record: 10-4
Was it worth it? Elam finished tied for 5th for total points with 133 last year. Juice did get a top 5 kicker but he could have got the same pick about two or three rounds later. His record is a little decieving when it comes to the early kicker considering that questionable trade that was made last season but we won't talk about that anymore.....
Wong's LD's: David Akers at 8.02
End of year record: 5-9
Was it worth it? Akers finished last season with the 8th best total points with 124. Not a value pick especially when there's so much depth that's needed in a league where we can only carry 4 RB's and 4 WR's. Again, Akers could have been drafted a couple rounds later.
Little Red Horse: Jay Feely at 8.08
End of year record: 7-7
Was it worth it? HELL NO! Feely didn't even finish in the TOP 25 KICKERS for last year!!! He had a miserable 93 points on the season.....pretty pathetic kicker, and a pretty bad pick in the 8th round!
Team Tang: S. Janikowski at 9.06
End of year record: 5-9
Was it worth it? This Polock wonder finished as the 21st best kicker last year with a pathetic 105 points. Between Feely and Janikowski, these guys are great examples of how top 10 kickers can drop hard at any time.....
Why do people take flyers on drafting kickers so early? It's a shot in the dark to get a top 5 kicker and what does a top 5 kicker mean in all fantasy leagues.....absolutely nothing! By the way, I drafted Jeff Wilkens at 14.01 and he was the top kicker last season with 179 points. That might make some people think twice about doing that again!
That last article I wrote on the draft last season was the early defenses being taken. Just like kickers, a top defense is very tough to predict as the top 5 usually changes just as much as top 5 kickers do. It's too much of a guessing game to try and get that "top defense" for the season so why waste such an early pick on them! Let's take a look at how things worked out for some teams last year......
Team Juice: Tampa Bay at 6.06
End of year record: 10-4
Was it worth it? Not at all. Tampa barely made the top 10 last year, finishing as the 9th best defense. A 6th round pick is just way too damn early to draft the 9th best defense isn't it?
Team Goo: Philly at 6.11
End of year record: 5-9
Was it worth it? This was a big ouch. Philly finished as the 19th best defense. This kind of value could have been picked up in the 15th round of the draft. This shows that taking a flyer on that big potential defense can really bite you hard!
Little Red Horse: Miami at 7.05
End of year record: 7-7
Was it worth it? Miami finished as the 6th best defense last year. Not a horrible pick but again (I feel like I've said this all article), he could have gotten the same pick about 4 rounds later.
Team Nookie: Atlanta at 8.05
End of year record: 10-4
Was it worth it? Ben sure thought so after drafting Atlanta in last years draft. How does it feel to draft the 11th best defense with your 8th round pick? Pretty silly I hope!
It is worth knowing that Wong drafted the top defense last year with his pick at 15.11 by choosing St. Louis. That's 7-9 rounds later than the first defenses taken. Just amazing!!! Out of the top 5 defenses taken in last year's draft, only one made the top 5 defense at the end of the year. I also did a check on how many teams had their second drafted defense outperform their first defense selected. Exactly half the league drafted their better defense as their second defense taken. This just proves that playing Russian Roulet with drafting defenses too early is fantasy disaster!!
Out of the three catagories that I wrote about, there were five teams that made the list more than once. It isn't very surprising to me that four out of the 5 teams that made the list twice, had records at or below .500 (Goo, Tang, Wong, and LRH). The only exception to the list is Juice, who made the list twice, but had a pretty good record (that trade made between him and Smith was the only thing keeping him above .500).
I hope that some people learn from these stats for the upcoming season. These kind of stats just don't lie. Making questionable decisions on draft day do cause fantasy disaster for the coming season. Don't let this be you!!!!