Top
Fantasy Players
QBs
Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals
A great season from the
Bengals QB in
2005. 3,836 passing yards, 32 TDs, a
67.8 completion percentage and 101.1 QB rating.
He was the main reason why the Bengals reached the
postseason last
year.
2006
Outlook
Palmer’s
postseason knee injury last
year is cause for concern going into the fantasy drafts this year. This situation needs to be watched closely
during the preseason to determine where his stock lands in the drafts. Without the injury, he probably would have
been the 2nd QB taken, but now, it’s a waiting game. With the current situation as it is, it would
be highly too risky to select him early in fantasy drafts.
Tom Brady
– New England Patriots
Brady is one of the most
underrated
fantasy QBs. He has always been drafted
late in fantasy drafts, and last year he shined once again. 4,110 passing yards, 26 TDs with a 63
completion percentage and 92.3 QB rating.
2006
Outlook
Last year Brady
lost WR David Patton
in free agency to Washington, but still managed a great
stat year
for fantasy owners. This year, so far,
he lost WR David Givens in free agency as well.
Brady will still have WR Deion Branch and the Patriots
signed another
free agent WR in Reche Caldwell and drafted Chad Jackson.
Brady will probably still get no respect in
drafts this coming year, but if you’re willing to concentrate on
filling your
other positions first, Brady is a good option to have in 2006 again.
RBs
Shaun
Alexander – Seattle Seahawks
Alexander listed here
should not
surprise anyone. Seattle rode Alexander on their
way to the
Superbowl. 1,880 rushing yards (5.1
avg), 27 rushing TDs. He also added 78
yards receiving and another TD.
2006
Outlook
Free Agent T
Steve Hutchinson left Seattle and decided to open
running lanes in Minnesota.
It’s a small concern, no doubt, but Alexander should still
be drafted
within the top 5 (more likely the top 3) in most fantasy drafts this
coming
season.
Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs
This is not a shock either. But the question is, was he drafted as “Priest
Holmes insurance”, or did someone else draft him with a sense of simply
taking
a chance. LJ was just amazing last
season and if you owned him, you probably made the playoffs. 1,750 rushing yards (5.2 avg), 20 rushing
TDs. He added another 343 yards receiving
and another TD. He managed this feat
with only starting 9 games last season.
Yes, that’s right, only NINE (but he did play in all 16).
2006
Outlook
Johnson received
the opportunity to
shine because of an injury to Priest Holmes last season.
Holmes may retire, but officially he has not
decided his future yet. Regardless of
what Holmes decides, Johnson should be the #1 selection overall in most
fantasy
drafts, or within the top 3 at minimal, because he will continue his
dominance
in 2006.
WRs
Steve
Smith – Carolina Panthers
Smith is also honored as
one of the
Comeback Players in 2005.
Smith broke his leg early in 2004, in which, he sat out
the entire
year. And when he returned last year, he
produced monster type numbers. 103
receptions for 1,563 yards (15.2 avg) and 12 TDs.
2006
Outlook
This season,
Smith will look down the
line of scrimmage and see a capable WR that could steal a lot of
Smith’s
catches this season. WR Keyshawn Johnson
signed with Carolina as a free agent. There is cause for concern that Smith’s
numbers could dip, but Smith proved that he is one of the top WR’s in
this
league. The Johnson signing should help
Smith from seeing double coverage in most games. Johnson
is a big target for QB Delhomme and a
good possession guy. Smith is still the
deep threat and his performance last season solidified his fantasy
value where
he should be drafted as one of the top 3 WRs this season.
Chad Johnson –
Cincinnati Bengals
Johnson entertained us last
season
with his creative TD celebrations (9 of them).
He gelled with Palmer and quickly created a deadly fantasy
QB-WR
duo. 97 receptions for 1,432 yards (14.8
avg).
2006
Outlook
No more TD
celebrations for Johnson in
2006 according to the new NFL rules. But
that doesn’t mean he won’t get any more TDs, it just may take him a
while. His success will ride on the quick
recovery
of QB Carson Palmer. Backup QB Jon Kitna
left for the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati is now left without a
valuable
backup. Johnson should be one of the top
5 WRs drafted in the coming year, but don’t be surprised if he starts a
little
slow in 2006.
TE
Antonio
Gates – San Diego Chargers
The best fantasy TE in the
game
today. He was suspended for the first
game of the season in 2005 and after that, well, let me just show you
the
numbers. 69 receptions for 1,101 yards
(12.4 avg) and 10 TDs.
2006
Outlook
The other end of
Gates’ receptions
last season, QB Drew Brees, found a new address in 2006.
Philip Rivers will now take over at QB for
the Chargers, and I am sure everyone is wondering what will happen to
Gates’
value. Gates has been drafted usually
around rounds 4-5 in the past, in some instances, earlier.
With so many good TEs becoming more involved
in their offenses, personally, I would wait until someone takes the
chance on
Gates and let that begin the TE run in the fantasy draft before
selecting a TE
of your own.
Biggest
Surprise
Players
QBs
Eli Manning – New York Giants
Eli was drafted in many
leagues in
2005 as a backup QB for their fantasy squad.
But my guess is he probably started more games than your
original
starting QB (unless his name was the “other” Manning).
Eli was consistently good all year long.
3,762 passing yards, 24 TDs with 52.8
completion percentage and 75.9 QB rating.
2006
Outlook
Eli’s stock will
rise in 2006 Fantasy
drafts. His INT total was still high (17
last season), but that shouldn’t matter to most owners.
Eli will still have WR Plaxico Burress, and
Pro Bowlers, TE Jeremey Shockey, and RB Tiki Barber.
Eli is not quite a top 8 fantasy QB, but he
certainly has the tools and the weapons to succeed, he just needs to
lower that
INT total.
Kurt
Warner – Arizona Cardinals
Warner was out from weeks 4
through
8. He returned week 9 and produced great
fantasy numbers until week 15. Most
likely, Warner helped many last season through the playoffs. Despite playing in only 10 games last year,
these are the incredible numbers he was able to put together. 2,713 passing yards, 11 TDs with a 64.5
completion percentage and 85.8 QB rating.
2006
Outlook
All Warner has
to do in 2006 is stay
healthy. If he can manage that feat, he
should be able to produce Pro Bowl like stats.
Warner no longer has QB Josh McCown looking over his
shoulder since the
youngster signed with Detroit in the offseason. The incredible receiving tandem of Larry
Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are still in Arizona uniforms.
They also added one of the top RB’s in the
league in Edgerrin James. If Coach
Dennis Green can improve that Offensive Line, it could be a magical
year for
Warner.
RBs
Lamont
Jordan – Oakland Raiders
Maybe to some people, Jordan was not a big surprise. But to me, I certainly did not expect him to
put up the kind of numbers he did, hence the reason I listed him here. Not bad for a first year starter.
1,025 rushing yards (3.8 avg), 9 rushing
TDs. He also added 563 yards receiving on
70 catches and 2 more TDs.
2006
Outlook
One of the
qualities that make Jordon
so valuable is his receiving yards and if your league awards points for
receptions, than Jordan will easily be a top RB in
2006
again. However, Jordon will not be
catching passes from Kerry Collins in 2006.
Aaron Brooks will take the helm of the Oakland offense.
Brooks, practically thrown out of New Orleans, hopes to revitalize his
career with
the Raiders. This QB move should not
affect
Jordon much in fantasy drafts. Jordon
should be a second round or even a late first round pick come draft day.
Samkon
Gado – Green Bay Packers
The Nigerian Nightmare,
part II. Another team’s trash, becomes
another team’s
gold. Kansas City releasing Gado prior to
the start of
the season and Green Bay,
needing a RB, snatched him up. With
injuries to Ahman Green and Najeh Davenpart, Gado got his chance to
strut his
stuff. And those owners, who added him
to their rosters late in the season, got nice production and a playoff
boost. From weeks 9-14 Gado’s stats were
as follows; 582 rushing yards (4.1 avg), 6 rushing TDs.
He added another 77 yards receiving and
another TD.
2006
Outlook
At the end of
last season, Gado was
certain to be listed as a sleeper candidate for 2006.
But since than, that has all changed and not
in Gado’s favor. Ahman Green and Najeh
Davenport were both resigned by Green Bay in the offseason. Unless another injury occurs or if Green or
Davenpart get traded, Gado has little value this coming year. For the 2006 draft, Gado should only be
drafted as Ahman Green insurance until further notice.
WRs
Chris
Chambers – Miami Dolphins
Chambers, with an average
at best QB
in Fiedler, produced terrific numbers in 2005.
A late draft pick in most leagues, owners soon inserted
Chambers into their
weekly lineups. 82 receptions for 1,118
yards (13.6 avg) and 11 TDs.
2006
Outlook
One could easily
say if Chambers can
muster 1,118 with Fiedler, imagine what he should do with Daunte
Culpepper now
throwing passes his way. Well, for me,
the jury is still out on Culpepper.
Before he was injured, his passes resembled ducks in the
wind. Culpepper still needs to be 100%
back from
injury before I rant and rave about Chambers.
Although, Chambers should provide fantasy owners a solid
#2 WR in 2006.
Joey
Galloway – Tampa Bay Bucs
Galloway could easily been also
nominated for
the comeback award last season. In 2004,
an injury shortened season, he managed 416 yards. In
2005 he had 83 receptions for 1,287 yards
(15.5 avg) and 10 TDs. Galloway was either a very late
round draft
pick last season, or a free agent pick up by the week 2.
2006
Outlook
Not many
significant changes to the Tampa Bay offense so far this
offseason. In other words, what you saw in
2005, you can
expect pretty much the same for 2006.
One significant side note, Galloway will be 35 years of age in
November. At his age, the question asks if
he can duplicate
and continue his success without another injury. Galloway is a solid #3 WR in 2006,
drafting as a #2 is risky, but
manageable.
TE
Chris
Cooley – Washington Redskins
A sleeper candidate in
virtually every
magazine I read prior to the 2005 season.
Cooley can now be considered a legitimate TE fantasy
threat after his
2005 performance. 71 receptions for 774
yards (10.9 avg) and 7 TDs.
2006
Outlook
My biggest
concern with Cooley in 2006
is how many catches will he lose to his new WR teammates?
Washington signed WR Antwaan
Randle-El and
traded for WR Brandon Lloyd in the offseason.
And let’s not forget that Santana Moss still wears a
Redskins
uniform. A lot of options for QB Mark
Brunell in 2006, but will Cooley still play a big part?
With so many TE’s playing bigger parts in
NFL’s offenses these days, you should be able to find one on draft day
where a
more prominent role is played. Cooley is
a solid #2 TE, but if you make him your #1, just make sure, you have
solid
pieces in all your other positions.
Most
Disappointing
Players
QBs
Brett
Favre – Green Bay Packers
Favre fell anywhere from #6
to #8 on
most QB draft boards last year. Many
people will strictly look at Favre’s 2005 yardage total and keep him
ranked
fairly high again in 2006. No doubt, his
passing numbers were good, despite not having WR Javon Walker all
season. But, if you look at a game by game
analysis
on Favre in 2005, you will find from weeks 8 to16, Favre only had 2
weeks of solid
fantasy performances. And from week 12
on, his fantasy production was terrible. That being said, he probably
sealed
many fantasy owners’ fate on not reaching the playoffs.
His 2005 total stats are 3,881 passing yards,
20 TDs, 29 INTs with 61.3 completion percentage and 70.9 QB rating.
2006
Outlook
It took a while
but, Favre finally
decided to return to the NFL next season.
However, despite this announcement, Favre should be
dropped down on your
2006 QB draft boards. The main pieces of
this offense always appear to be injured (WRs Driver and Ferguson, RBs Green and Davenport) and this will take a toll
on the
QB. He should be drafted as a quality
backup QB and not more than that for this coming season.
I also predict that QB Aaron Rogers will see
a lot of playing time this season.
Aaron
Brooks – Oakland Raiders (New Orleans in 2005)
New Orleans’ problems in 2005 could be
related to
Hurricane Katrina, but the blame went to Aaron Brooks, as he was
benched late
in the 2005 season. Hurricane Katrina
destroyed the Superdome and the Saints were forced to play 8 home
games, away
from home. The hurricane affected the
morale and the psyche of many of the New Orleans players, Brooks included. Maybe this is why his numbers were less than
great. 2,882 passing yards, 13 TDs, 17
INTs with a 55.7 completion percentage and 70 QB rating.
2006
Outlook
From hurricanes
to earthquakes. But this is not the only
thing Brooks will
swap this coming season. It’s a fresh
new start and Brooks has a lot of talent around him to succeed. He will have better WRs here in Oakland (R. Moss & Porter)
than he did in
New Orleans
(Horn & Stallworth). Also, the
defenses in the AFC West can not even be compared to those tough D’s in
the NFC
South. Brooks is a solid sleeper
candidate in 2006, he is not the long term answer at QB, but
surprisingly the
Raiders did not select a QB in the draft.
RBs
Jamal
Lewis – Baltimore Ravens
In most 2005 fantasy
drafts, Lewis was
selected in the first round, or at the very least, the second round. His final 2005 numbers were terrible, and I
have to wonder if that jail time he served, affected him.
Lewis may have even been found on the waiver
wire late in the 2005 season because too many owners were just
disgusted. 906 rushing yards (3.4 avg), 3
rushing
TDs. He also added 191 yards receiving on
32 catches and 1 more TD.
2006
Outlook
Surprisingly,
Lewis re-signs in
Baltimore and RB Chester Taylor lands in Minnesota.
And I thought the Baltimore management would have done
the
opposite by keeping Taylor and letting Lewis walk. But anyway, this doesn’t change my outlook on
Lewis. The Ravens replaced Taylor with RB Mike Anderson in
the
offseason, and with these 2 big backs possibly splitting carries, Lewis
is no
more than a 3rd RB or even a 2nd RB at best, but
that
would be pushing it.
J.
J. Arrington – Arizona Cardinals
In 2004, Arrington was the
talk of the
college nation were he was the leading rusher and amassed over 2,000
yards.
Fast forward to 2005, and being drafted by the Cardinals, who
desperately
needed a RB, many thought Arrington would be a great sleeper candidate. Well, Arrington could hardly amass over 500
total yards in his first pro season. 370
rushing yards (3.3 avg.), 2 rushing TDs.
He also added 139 receiving yards.
2006
Outlook
The only way
Arrington will see another
start as an Arizona Cardinal, is if an injury occurs to the new
starting RB,
Edgerrin James. And even then, it will
probably be more of the same as last season.
Don’t bother drafting him, unless you want your Edge
insurance.
WRs
Randy Moss – Oakland Raiders
One of the top 3 WRs going
into the
2005 season and was drafted accordingly.
But Moss killed too many fantasy teams late in the year
last
season. Where teams are trying to make a
playoff push and counting on their top guys, Moss was a flop. After week 11, Moss did not have a double
digit performance until week 17 (where most fantasy seasons were
already
finished). 60 receptions for 1,005 yards (16.8 avg) and 8 TDs.
2006
Outlook
Moss’ stock will
drop in the draft
this year, especially with Brooks at QB.
He is no longer a viable first round selection, and I may
not even
consider him a top 5 WR in 2006. (Owens, Smith, Johnson, Holt,
Fitzgerald, are
all higher ranked in my estimation).
Sure he has all the talent in the world to succeed, but do
you really
want to risk your whole draft on this guy?
Moss can be a solid #1, and will still be drafted as such,
but I am
thinking more on the lines as a late second round pick this season,
nothing
more
Michael
Clayton – Tampa Bay Bucs
Can someone say “sophomore
jinx”? In 2004, Clayton managed 1,193
yards. Now I realize that Galloway was injured in 2004, but
those are
still impressive numbers from a rookie WR.
Galloway returns strong in 2005,
and mix that
in with Clayton’s nagging shoulder injury all year, and it’s a recipe
for a disastrous
fantasy year. In 2005 he had 32
receptions for 372 yards (11.6 avg) and 0 TDs.
2006
Outlook
According to so
many fantasy experts,
even though there may be a “sophomore jinx”, there is a notion that
third year
WRs break out and produce great numbers for those who draft them. Clayton could be a solid sleeper in
2006. Galloway will be 35 in November,
and may
struggle to stay healthy on a weekly basis.
Keep Clayton on your radar for late in the draft. Many people will forget about him, mostly
because last season’s stats were completely terrible, but he could be a
nice
addition to your team, coming off the bench and filling in when you
need him.
TE
Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts
Another sleeper candidate
in virtually
every magazine I read prior to the 2005 season. Mostly because Marcus
Pollard
left for Detroit and Indy has an incredible
pass
oriented, defense torching offense. But
that wasn’t the case. As a matter of
fact, Clark didn’t have significant
production
until week 7 (where he was probably already a fantasy free agent at
that
point). 37 receptions for 488 yards (13.2
avg) and 4 TDs.
2006
Outlook
Despite Clark’s lack of production last
season, I
will go out on a limb and say that he again will be a solid sleeper
candidate
for 2006. With RB Edgerrin James removed
from this offense, the passing game may come much more into play then
in the
past (Is that possible?) The Colts
selected
RB Joseph Addai in the NFL Draft, but you can’t put that kind of
pressure on a
rookie. I personally feel Dominic Rhoads
will be the starting RB this season. But
to keep the pressure off Rhoads, QB Manning will look to all his
receivers to
step up next season, Clark included.
Comeback
Players of
the Year
QBs
Drew
Bledsoe – Dallas Cowboys
Bledsoe had a surprisingly
good year
in 2005. In 2004, his numbers were
subpar, 2,932 passing yards, 20 TDs, 16 INTs with a 56.9 completion
percentage
and a 76.6 QB rating. In 2005 Bledsoe
was most likely drafted as a backup and was a spot starter in some
weeks where
the matchup was favorable. Bledsoe threw
for 3,639 yards, 23 TDs, 17INTs with a 60.1 completion percentage and
83.7 QB
rating.
2006
Outlook
Bledsoe has a
new target in 2006,
Terrell Owens. T.O. brings attitude, a
desire for winning, and complete stupidity to a Dallas offense.
But as for Bledsoe’s outlook for 2006, it
really couldn’t be brighter. Bledsoe’s
numbers should see an increase this year, that is, as long as T.O.
doesn’t
start with his antics like he did in Philly last season.
Bledsoe should still be drafted as a backup,
but he will be a solid one.
Mark
Brunell – Washington Redskins
In 2004, Brunell and the
Redskins
struggled. He only started 9 games in
2004 and produced these numbers. 1,194
passing yards, 7 TDs and 6 INTs with a 49.8 completion percentage and a
63.9 QB
rating. In 2005, the Skins bounced back
and reached the post season, with the main reason pointing directly to
Brunell. His numbers in 2005 were very
good: 3,050 passing yards, 23 TDs and 10 INTs with a 57.7 completion
percentage
and 85.9 QB rating.
2006
Outlook
At 35 this
season, it will be
difficult to select him as an every week starter. But
that being said, with the Skins loading up
talent at the WR position (Randle-El and Lloyd) in the offseason, how
can
anyone not take a chance at this potential potent offense.
He will be a good #2 QB in fantasy leagues
RBs
Mike
Anderson – Baltimore Ravens (Denver in 2005)
Mike Anderson had no stats
in 2004
because of an injury. In 2005 he
regained the starting role in Denver’s carousel of RB’s and
produced good
numbers in 15 starts. 1,014 rushing, 212
receiving yards and 13 total TDs.
2006
Outlook
Anderson will be in a Baltimore uniform this season. The big question is who will be the lead RB
since Jamal Lewis is still in town. My
best guess is, Anderson has better hands to catch the ball out of the
backfield
so expect to see him on passing downs.
And if Lewis continues to struggle, like he did in 2005,
that will be
good news for Anderson owners this season. Anderson is nothing more than a 3rd
or 4th RB on anyone’s fantasy team.
Ricky
Williams – Miami Dolphins
In 2004, Ricky Williams
decided to
retire/quit, whatever you wanted to call that fiasco, just to avoid a
drug
suspension. When he finally had his head
examined and rejoin the NFL in 2005, he was never the feature back in Miami, but he still produced
good
numbers. In 12 games (first 4 he was
suspended), and 3 games he started, he rushed for 743 yards (4.4 avg.)
and
scored 6 TDs.
2006
Outlook
Please do NOT
draft Ricky Williams
this season. I do hope everyone knows
that he is currently playing in the Canadian Football League and will
not play
in the NFL this season. So unless you are
in a keeper league, there is no point to draft him in 2006.
WRs
Steve
Smith – Carolina Panthers
(PLEASE READ THE “TOP
PLAYERS”
SECTION, STEVE SMITH IS LISTED THERE)
2006
Outlook
(PLEASE READ THE
“TOP PLAYERS”
SECTION, SMITH’S OUTLOOK IS LISTED THERE)
Santana
Moss – Washington Redskins
Much like I said in the
Brunell piece
above, the Skins struggled in 2004, and every offensive player suffered. Moss started in 14 games (played in 15) had
838 receiving yards on 45 receptions (18.6 avg.) and 5 TDs. In 2005, the Skins improved their offensive
production which helped them reach the playoffs. Moss
started all 16 games and produced 1,483
receiving yards on 84 receptions (17.7 avg.) and 9 TDs.
2006
Outlook
Santana Moss
will have some
competition grabbing attention this season on the offensive side of the
ball. I still expect the Skins to run
the ball with Portis often, but they also upgraded their WR corps in
the
offseason with Randle-El and Lloyd. Moss
is still the #1 on this team with one of the best yards per catch in
the
NFL. I don’t expect that to change much
in 2006.
TE
Todd Heap – Baltimore Ravens
In 2004, Heap suffered a
nagging
injury that resulted in him starting only 5 games.
He produced 303 yards on 27 receptions (11.2
avg.) and 3 TDs. In 2005, despite the
inept passing offense guided by QB Kyle Boller, Heap returned to top
tier TE
status with 855 receiving yards on 75 receptions (11.4 avg.) and 7 TDs.
2006
Outlook
In 2006, QB
Boller moves to the bench
as Steve McNair comes to town. If McNair
can remain healthy, the passing offense will be vastly improved. The Ravens have pieces in place to challenge
for a playoff spot this season. Heap
should benefit greatly to the addition at QB and should be selected
within the
top 4 of TE’s this season.
